Red Flag Warning 23, NWS El Paso, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1203 PM MDT FRI JUN 7 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
MOIST UNSTABLE AIR WILL FLOW INTO NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS
AND THIS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. FOR SATURDAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEK WESTERLY WINDS WILL PRODUCE HOT AND MOSTLY DRY
WEATHER FOR THE BORDERLAND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE CONVECTION LOOKS PRONOUNCED FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN
TEXAS. EAST TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO TRANSPORT
ABUNDANT MOISTURE INTO THE AREA WITH DEWPOINTS ABOVE 50 F FOR MOST
OF THE CWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MORNING SOUNDING SHOWED A HIGHLY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH A 3000 J/KG MUCAPE ALONG WITH A .9 INCH
PRECIPITABLE WATER. WIND SHEAR ALSO SIGNIFICANT WITH 10 TO 20 KT
LOW LEVEL EASTERLIES BENEATH 20 TO 30 KT WESTERLY WINDS AT MID
LEVELS. THUS A FEW STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AT LEAST MODERATE
MID LEVEL ROTATION WITH ATTENDANT UPDRAFT ENHANCEMENT. WET BULB
ZERO HEIGHT ALSO LOW AT AROUND 8000 FEET AGL. THUS THERE IS A RISK
OF SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING LARGE HAIL AND STRONG DOWNBURSTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ALSO EXPECTED.
TRIGGERING/STORM INITIATION MECHANISMS SHOULD CONSIST OF WEAK
UPPER WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST PLUS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL/THERMAL TROUGH. SOUNDING ALSO
SHOWS LITTLE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION MEANING SURFACE HEATING MAY
PROVIDE SOME FORCING. FINALLY UPSLOPE FLOW MAY FORCE SOME UPDRAFTS
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN.

BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON SURFACE TROUGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED EAST
OF THE ROCKIES WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE WESTERLY. THIS
WILL ADVECT HOT MUCH DRIER AIR MASS INTO THE CWA. STRONG UPPER
RIDGE WILL ALSO COVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
THESE FACTORS WILL BRING MOSTLY DRY WEATHER AND HOT TEMPERATURES
TOMORROW THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 08/00Z-09/00Z.
VFR THRU THE PERIOD. FEW-SCT080-100 SCT-BKN150-200 THRU 12Z...THEN
FEW-SCT150-200. S TO SE WINDS 5-15KTS THRU 12Z THEN SHIFTING
TO THE W AT 10-20G30KTS.  VARIABLE WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 50KTS NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS. WDLY SCT TO SCT 2-4SM BKN040-060CB THRU 06Z MAINLY
EAST OF DIVIDE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ONE MORE DAY OF THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRY LIGHTNING IS STILL A
DEFINITE POSSIBILITY OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN GILA THIS
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY. MUCH DRIER AIR WITH HOT TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN TOMORROW WITH HIGHS OVER THE LOWLANDS APPROACHING 100 DEGREES
AGAIN. WINDS ALSO LOOK BREEZY TO WINDY OVER FAR SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO
WHICH COULD LEAD TO CRITICAL CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ZONES 110 AND 111.

HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK
WITH HIGHS IN THE 100-105 RANGE AND SINGLE DIGIT RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT WITH UPPER HIGH OVER REGION SO
CRITICAL CONDITIONS NOT EXPECTED. SOME HINTS OF THE FIRST MONSOON
MOISTURE SURGE SHOWING UP IN MODELS GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 71 100  75 102  77 /  40  10   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           69  96  70  98  70 /  40  10   0  10  10
LAS CRUCES              62  98  68  98  67 /  40  10   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              65  98  71  93  70 /  40  10   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              42  73  44  79  47 /  50  10  10  10  10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   64  96  69  98  69 /  30  10   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             56  92  58  93  57 /  30  10   0   0   0
DEMING                  61 100  67 100  66 /  30   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               61 103  67  98  66 /  10   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      72  98  77 101  77 /  40  10   0   0   0
DELL CITY               63  97  67 101  71 /  40  10   0  10  10
FORT HANCOCK            70 102  73 103  76 /  30  10   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              64  89  65  94  66 /  40  10   0  10  10
FABENS                  68  99  72 102  74 /  40  10   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            68  99  74  99  73 /  40  10   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          71  97  72  97  76 /  50  10   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           57  98  63  99  62 /  40  10   0   0   0
HATCH                   64  96  70  97  69 /  40  10   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                66  99  72  99  71 /  30   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               64  99  70 100  69 /  40  10   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 49  84  51  89  53 /  50  10  10  10  10
MESCALERO               46  85  48  90  50 /  50  10  10  10  10
TIMBERON                45  81  47  86  49 /  50  10  10  10  10
WINSTON                 46  88  48  92  51 /  30  10   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               57  90  58  96  59 /  30  10   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               63  97  69  98  68 /  40  10   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            47  92  48  93  50 /  30  10   0   0   0
HURLEY                  55  94  58  94  57 /  20  10   0   0   0
CLIFF                   46 100  54  97  53 /  30  10   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              43  99  44  94  45 /  20   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 57  93  58  94  59 /  30  10   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  62 103  68  98  67 /  10   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 61 101  67  98  66 /  10   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          63 102  69  98  68 /  10   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              60  96  61  94  62 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR NMZ110-111.

TX...NONE.
&&

05 ROGASH/26 GRZYWACZ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1008 AM MDT FRI JUN 7 2013

NMZ401>417-TXZ418>424-081745-
UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-SOUTHERN GILA HIGHLANDS/BLACK RANGE-
SOUTHERN GILA FOOTHILLS/MIMBRES VALLEY-
SOUTHWEST DESERT/LOWER GILA RIVER VALLEY-LOWLANDS OF THE BOOTHEEL-
UPLANDS OF THE BOOTHEEL-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-
EASTERN BLACK RANGE FOOTHILLS-SIERRA COUNTY LAKES-
NORTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY-SOUTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY/MESILLA VALLEY-
CENTRAL TULAROSA BASIN-SOUTHERN TULAROSA BASIN-
WEST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500 FEET-
EAST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-OTERO MESA-
WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY-EASTERN/CENTRAL EL PASO COUNTY-
NORTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS/HUECO MOUNTAINS-SALT BASIN-
SOUTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS-
RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN EL PASO/WESTERN HUDSPETH COUNTIES-
RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN HUDSPETH COUNTY-
1008 AM MDT FRI JUN 7 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NM AND TX.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
MOIST UNSTABLE AIR CONTINUES TO FLOW INTO THE REGION WITH AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND LOW LEVEL FORCING
OCCURRING NEAR A SURFACE FRONT AND TROUGH. AS A RESULT THERE WILL BE
A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY FROM
MID AFTERNOON THROUGH THE LATE EVENING. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS ALONG WITH 70 MPH WINDS. IN
ADDITION  OVER AN INCH OF RAIN MAY FALL OVER ISOLATED LOCATIONS
CAUSING LOCALIZED FLOODING. DRY LIGHTNING MAY OCCUR AND IGNITE
WILDFIRES WEST OF THE DIVIDE AND OVER THE GILA REGION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
HOT DRIER AIR WILL FLOW INTO THE REGION DURING THIS TIME. THUS
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH ONLY VERY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
MAINLY MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO CALL IN ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NWS
OFFICE VIA OUR 800 NUMBER OR CALL LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OR TWEET
US A REPORT USING OUR OFFICE USERNAME @NWSELPASO

ROGASH

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