High Wind Watch 2, NWS El Paso, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
458 AM MST FRI FEB 8 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY TODAY BEFORE WINTER BLOWS IN FOR THE WEEKEND
AND FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS TODAY WILL RUN ABOUT5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A POWERFUL UPPER LOW WILL MOVE TO THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION SATURDAY...BRINGING STRONG WINDS...BLOWING DUST AND
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WITH IT. A HIGH WIND WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY WILL BE ABOUT
15 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LOW MOVES
TO EASTERN ARIZONA MONDAY BRINGING MORE WINDS AND A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR THE ENTIRE BORDERLAND. THE LOW QUICKLY MOVES OUT ON
TUESDAY FOR CLEARING AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK WILL KEEP THE BORDERLAND DRY AND MOSTLY CLOUDLESS. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE WARMING
BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ONE-TWO PUNCH STILL ON THE WAY FOR THE CWA THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK...UNFORTUNATELY THE MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE GFS...CONTINUE
TO VACILLATE ON THE MONDAY FEATURE. FIRST THINKS FIRST HOWEVER...AS
WE WILL HAVE ONE MORE NICE DAY TODAY AS WE SIT UNDER DRY SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH TODAY WILL
KNOCK A COUPLE OF DEGREES OFF OTHERWISE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. NAM/GFS BOTH SHOWING WEAK SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING
THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS
COULD DEVELOP TO THE WEST OF THIS TROUGH WHILE SOMEWHAT LIGHTER
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WIND DEVELOP TO THE EAST.

UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE TO JUST NORTH OF THE
FOUR CORNERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SYSTEM CONTINUES TO LACK MOISTURE
BUT UPPER DYNAMICS AND STRONG SURFACE COLD JUST ABOUT TO ENTER
WESTERN ARIZONA. STRONG PVA AND MID LEVEL WINDS ALONG WITH GOOD COLD
ADVECTION ALL ADD UP TO A PRETTY WINDY DAY. WILL ISSUE HIGH WIND
WATCH THOUGH WINDS MAY STAY A NOTCH BELOW IN ADVISORY TERRITORY.
FRONT SHOULD BE TO ABOUT EL PASO NOONTIME AND THEN EAST OF THE CWA
BY LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS LOOK TO STAY QUITE STRONG FOR SEVERAL HOURS
BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE GRADIENT DOESN'T APPEAR TO RELAX UNTIL AFTER
SUNSET. LOW POPS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND LOWLANDS WEST
OF DEMING.

PARENT LONG WAVE TROUGH PARKED OVER THE ROCKIES AND DESERT SOUTHWEST
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SUNDAY REMAINS IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS BUT WILL
SEE TEMPS ABOUT 15 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. VORT CENTER OVER
NEVADA WILL DIG SOUTHWARD AND CLOSE OFF LOW OVER ARIZONA MONDAY.
THIS IS WHERE THE MODELS ARE REALLY HAVING CONSISTENCY ISSUES AND
THEREFORE FORECASTER CONFIDENCE NOT REAL HIGH RIGHT NOW. WINDS ARE A
GIVEN AND WILL APPROACH ADVISORY LEVEL. AFTER MUCH FLIPPING AROUND
THE MODELS HAD BEEN APPEARING TO BE LOCKING ON TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE
WEAK DIGGING PATTERN...WHICH IS WHAT THIS FORECAST PACKAGE REFLECTS.
NOW HOWEVER THE 06Z GFS SHOWS A STRONGER DIGGING LOW GOING FURTHER
SOUTH WITH MUCH BETTER PRECIP POTENTIAL FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. THE
CURRENT PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION WOULD INDICATE POPS MOSTLY FOR THE
MOUNTAINS AND NOT MUCH ACCUMULATION OF SNOW. A FURTHER SOUTHWARD
SOLUTION LIKE THE 06Z GFS WOULD SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE MOUNTAINS. STAY TUNED.

UPPER LOW AND PARENT LONG WAVE TROUGH EXIT THE REGION MID DAY
TUESDAY...TO BE REPLACED BY A COOL DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE
PERHAPS POPPING BACK JUST ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. GFS
CONTINUES TO SHOW POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER STRONG STORM SYSTEM TOWARDS
NEXT WEEKEND BUT NOT SHOWING MUCH RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THIS.

&&

.AVIATION....VALID 08/12Z-09/12Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. OCNL SCT/BKN 180
SEP LYRS TO 300 PASSING THROUGH FROM THE WEST. SURFACE WINDS AFT
18Z...SOUTHWEST 15-20 KTS WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...AND SOUTH
10-15 KTS FROM THE VALLEY EAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SOME HIGHER CLOUDS OVER
THE AREA TODAY. OTHERWISE CONTINUED WARM AND DRY. WITH WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH FORMING OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON TO SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH WEST OF THE TROUGH AND
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH EAST OF THE TROUGH. STRONG UPPER LOW
MOVES TO THE FOUR CORNERS SATURDAY...BRINGING STRONG WINDS TO THE
AREA ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAIN ZONES.
WHILE WINDS WILL EASILY MEET RED FLAG CRITERIA...MIN RH'S WILL BE
SOMEWHAT HIGHER OUT WEST AS SURFACE FRONT AND COLD AIR MOVE IN FROM
THE WEST. FURTHER EAST MIN RH'S WILL BE AROUND 13-15% SO RED FLAG
WATCH LOOKS GOOD. WILL PROBABLY UPGRADE TO WARNING SOON.

UPPER LOW QUICKLY MOVES OUT AS WE AWAIT ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM COMING
IN MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF WINDS...THOUGH NOT AS
STRONG AS ON SATURDAY. SHOULD BE BETTER SHOT AT SHOWERS THOUGH AS
THE UPPER LOW TRACKS OVER CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. MOUNTAIN ZONES COULD
SEE 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW. SHOWERS SHOULD END TUESDAY AND SKIES CLEAR
AS DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN MUCH
COOLER MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 69  46  65  39  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           69  43  68  41  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              66  42  61  36  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              66  41  59  33  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              48  21  37  14  32 /   0   0  10  20   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   62  39  56  31  46 /   0   0  10   0   0
SILVER CITY             59  33  45  28  40 /   0  10  20  10   0
DEMING                  66  36  57  32  50 /   0   0  10   0   0
LORDSBURG               65  37  54  28  44 /   0  10  10   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      69  45  65  38  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               69  39  69  37  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            71  40  68  42  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              65  36  61  37  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  68  42  66  39  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            67  42  63  36  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          65  41  61  38  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           66  29  58  27  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   62  36  53  34  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                64  40  59  33  46 /   0   0  10   0   0
OROGRANDE               65  39  62  32  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 55  29  48  23  42 /   0   0  10  10   0
MESCALERO               58  27  51  25  41 /   0   0  10  10   0
TIMBERON                56  25  49  23  41 /   0   0  10  10   0
WINSTON                 54  25  40  17  39 /   0  10  20  10  10
HILLSBORO               62  31  52  27  45 /   0   0  10   0   0
SPACEPORT               63  36  56  31  47 /   0   0  10   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            60  24  39  15  39 /   0  10  20  10  10
HURLEY                  61  30  47  28  43 /   0  10  10   0   0
CLIFF                   61  25  48  26  41 /   0  10  20  10   0
MULE CREEK              60  21  44  24  39 /   0  10  20  10  10
FAYWOOD                 64  30  49  26  42 /   0   0  10   0   0
ANIMAS                  67  35  54  29  44 /   0  10  10   0   0
HACHITA                 66  33  53  29  47 /   0   0  10   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          69  35  54  30  43 /   0   0  10   0   0
CLOVERDALE              66  30  53  27  40 /   0  10  10   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR NMZ112.

     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON      FOR NMZ401>417.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR TXZ055-056.

     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON      FOR TXZ418>424.

&&

17 HEFNER