Flash Flood Warning 77, NWS El Paso, TX

930 
WGUS74 KEPZ 042320
FFSEPZ

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX
520 PM MDT SUN AUG 4 2013

NMC051-042336-
/O.EXP.KEPZ.FF.W.0077.000000T0000Z-130804T2330Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SIERRA NM-
520 PM MDT SUN AUG 4 2013

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWESTERN SIERRA
COUNTY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 530 PM MDT...

EXCESS RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED OVER THE WARNED AREA. ARROYOS
OR STREAMS IN THE WARNED AREA HAVE RECEDED OR WERE BEGINNING TO
RECEDE...ENDING THE FLOOD THREAT.

BE AWARE OF DEBRIS SCATTERED ACROSS ROADWAYS AT WASHES AND LOW WATER
CROSSINGS. IF YOU HAVE OBSERVED FLOODING...PLEASE REPORT IT TO YOUR
LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.

LAT...LON 3291 10763 3290 10758 3290 10755 3288 10747
      3289 10739 3287 10732 3279 10728 3282 10758
      3280 10765 3282 10775 3288 10778

$$

JMG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
305 AM MDT SUN AUG 4 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING FROM THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY EAST AND SHOULD DISSIPATE MID MORNING. SCATTERED
MOUNTAINS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WHILE THE
LOWLANDS WILL SEE ISOLATED STORMS. THIS PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE MOST
OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER HIGH OVER NORTH TEXAS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT OVER
EASTERN TEXAS BY TUESDAY. BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST
FLOW MAY INCREASE AND GIVE THE BORDERLAND A HIGHER COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL MOST OF THE NEW
WEEK AHEAD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN LARGE SCALE PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN UNCHANGED THIS WEEK WITH
UPPER HIGH OVER NORTH TEXAS AND THE PANHANDLE VERY SLOWLY DRIFTING
EASTWARD. HIGHER MOISTURE REMAINS OUT WEST...THOUGH NOT A LOT HIGHER
(WESTERN PW'S ABT 1.3'...EASTERN PW'S ABT 1.1"). MODELS HAD BEEN
HINTING AT INCREASING LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON AND IT LOOKS LIKE IT IS OCCURRING. THE CONVERGENCE ZONE
WITH THE WEST FLOW AND SOUTHEAST FLOW IS CURRENTLY OVER WEST TEXAS
UP TO OTERO COUNTY AND HAS HELPED FUEL SOME SMALL THUNDERSTORMS MOST
OF THE EARLY MORNING. LIKELY HELPING THESE STORMS IS THE DRIER AIR
INTRUSION ALOFT JUST WEST OF THE HIGH CENTER. NAM12 MOVES THIS
CONVERGENCE ZONE OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY MID MORNING SO WILL
ALLOW ISOLD TSTMS IN GRIDS/ZONES THIS MORNING FOR THE EASTERN CWA.
OTHERWISE BROKEN RECORD OF SCATTERED TSTMS MTN/WESTERN ZONES SHOULD
CONTINUE NOT ONLY TODAY BUT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ONE THING
TO WATCH...BOTH NAM12 AND WRF MODELS PICKING UP ON STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE LATE TONIGHT JUST WEST OF EL PASO. 00Z NAM12
RUN HAD GOOD SIZED AREAS OF HALF INCH QPFS...THOUGH 06Z HAS BACKED
OFF THOSE TOTALS. WILL NOT REALLY TAILOR GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS FOR
NOW BUT WILL ADVISE NEXT SHIFT TO WATCH MORNING MODELS AND
OBSERVATIONS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER HIGH IS PROGGED TO BE OVER EAST
TEXAS...WHILE A SHORT WAVE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS SCOOTS EAST. THIS
WILL TURN UPPER FLOW TEMPORARILY WEST WED/THUR. MAY NOT HAVE MUCH OF
A CHANCE OF RAIN AT ALL FOR THE LOWLANDS BUT DID KEEP THE SMALLEST
OF POPS IN.

FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...GFS STILL SHOWING LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW
TO RETURN SOME THURSDAY NIGHT AND MORE STEADILY ON FRIDAY. PW'S
INCREASE BACK TO AROUND 1.3 - 1.4 INCHES FRIDAY BEFORE THESE
CONCENTRATE MORE TO THE WEST SAT/SUN. WILL INCREASE POPS AGAIN DUE
TO THIS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 04/12Z-05/12Z.
MOSTLY VFR THRU THE PERIOD. THRU ABT 15Z FROM KLRU EAST...ISOLATED
-TSRA BKN100CB MAX TOPS 280. DVLPG AFT 18Z OVR MOUNTAINS...SCATTERED
3-5SM TSRA BKN110CB TOPS 450. THESE CONDS DVLPG ELSW AFT 22Z BUT
MORE ISOLATED. WINDS 7-12 KTS...SOUTHEAST EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. WIND GUSTS OF
35-45 KTS POSSIBLE NEAR TSTMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER NORTH TEXAS CONTINUES TO KEEP SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR OVER THE EASTERN ZONES THIS MORNING. AT LOW LEVELS WEAK
SOUTHEAST FLOW HAS PUSHED INTO WEST TEXAS AND HELPED KICK OFF SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS SW/SE CONVERGENCE
ZONE WILL MOVE TO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR
SCATTERED TSTMS THIS AFTN/TNGT FOR THE MOUNTAIN ZONES AND AREAS WEST
OF DEMING...WITH ISOLATED TSTMS ELSEWHERE. UPPER HIGH SLOWLY DRIFTS
EAST OVER EASTERN TEXAS BY TUE/WED...WITH MOSTLY ISOLATED TSTMS ALL
ZONES THE RESULT. LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW RETURNS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY FOR A POSSIBLE UPTICK IN TSTMS AGAIN. MIN RH'S WILL REMAIN
IN THE 20S LOWLANDS AND 30S MOUNTAINS FOR MOST OF THE WEEK AHEAD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 99  77  98  75  96 /  10  20  10  10  20
SIERRA BLANCA          101  74 100  73  98 /  10  10  10  10  10
LAS CRUCES              98  72  97  71  95 /  10  20  20  20  20
ALAMOGORDO              99  72  98  71  96 /  10  20  10  10  20
CLOUDCROFT              75  51  73  51  73 /  30  20  30  10  30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   95  69  94  68  92 /  20  20  20  20  20
SILVER CITY             89  63  87  61  84 /  30  40  30  30  30
DEMING                  96  70  95  69  93 /  30  20  20  20  20
LORDSBURG               95  68  94  67  92 /  30  30  30  30  30
WEST EL PASO METRO     100  76  99  74  97 /  10  20  10  10  20
DELL CITY              100  69  99  67  97 /  10  10  10  10  10
FORT HANCOCK           101  76 100  74  99 /  10  10  10  10  10
LOMA LINDA              97  70  94  68  91 /  10  20  10  10  20
FABENS                 100  75  99  73  97 /  10  10  10  10  10
SANTA TERESA            98  73  97  72  95 /  10  20  20  10  20
WHITE SANDS HQ          98  74  97  73  95 /  10  20  20  20  20
JORNADA RANGE           98  71  97  70  95 /  10  20  20  20  20
HATCH                   94  71  93  70  91 /  10  20  20  20  20
COLUMBUS                96  71  95  70  93 /  20  20  20  20  20
OROGRANDE              100  74  99  73  97 /  10  20  10  10  20
MAYHILL                 84  56  82  56  81 /  20  20  30  10  20
MESCALERO               86  54  84  54  83 /  20  20  30  20  30
TIMBERON                82  56  80  56  79 /  20  20  30  10  20
WINSTON                 83  59  81  59  80 /  30  30  30  30  30
HILLSBORO               94  67  91  65  88 /  30  20  20  20  20
SPACEPORT               95  70  94  69  92 /  20  20  20  20  20
LAKE ROBERTS            84  60  82  59  81 /  40  40  30  30  30
HURLEY                  90  64  87  62  84 /  30  30  30  30  30
CLIFF                   92  64  88  62  87 /  30  30  30  30  30
MULE CREEK              93  62  90  60  87 /  30  30  30  30  30
FAYWOOD                 93  66  90  64  87 /  30  30  30  30  20
ANIMAS                  94  68  93  67  91 /  30  30  30  30  30
HACHITA                 96  68  95  67  93 /  30  30  30  30  20
ANTELOPE WELLS          93  66  92  65  90 /  30  30  30  30  30
CLOVERDALE              91  64  88  62  85 /  30  40  30  30  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

17 HEFNER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX
1248 PM MDT SUN AUG 4 2013

NMZ402-041930-
SOUTHERN GILA HIGHLANDS/BLACK RANGE NM-
1248 PM MDT SUN AUG 4 2013

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THREATENING WESTERN SIERRA AND NORTHEASTERN
GRANT COUNTIES THROUGH 130 PM MDT...

AT 1243 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11 MILES WEST OF HILLSBORO  THIS STORM
 WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  EMORY PASS...
  KINGSTON...
  IRON CREEK CAMPGROUND...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TORRENTIAL RAIN MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED ROADWAY.

JMG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX
120 PM MDT SUN AUG 04 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0116 PM     FLASH FLOOD      KINGSTON                32.92N 107.70W
08/04/2013                   SIERRA             NM   911 CALL CENTER

            HEAVY RAIN ON THE SILVER FIRE BURN SCAR HAS CAUSED THE
            SOUTH PERCHA CREEK TO FLOOD IN KINGSTON

&&

EVENT NUMBER EPZ1300576

BRICE