Flash Flood Warning 52, NWS El Paso, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1247 PM MDT FRI JUL 26 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BECOME ALMOST STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS WHILE MOIST UNSTABLE AIR FLOW INTO THE
REGION. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING GOOD CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE BORDERLAND THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HEAVY RAINS
AND FLOODING POSSIBLE OVER A FEW LOCATIONS. DRIER AIR WILL FLOW
INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN FEWER STORMS OVER THE
AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ACTIVE WEATHER SITUATION NOW DEVELOPING. MORNING SOUNDING
INDICATES AIR MASS VERY CONDUCIVE FOR DEEP CONVECTION WITH CAPE
ALMOST 3000 J/KG WHILE PRECIPITABLE WATER WAS EXTREMELY HIGH AT
1.6 INCHES. AIR MASS ALSO SHOWING DEEP MOISTURE THROUGH 500 MB
WITH WIND PROFILE FAVORABLE FOR SLOW MOVING AND/OR BACK BUILDING
CELLS AS LOW LEVEL SPEEDS EXCEED THOSE AT MID/UPPER LEVELS. K
INDEX OF 40 ALSO CONSISTENT WITH HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL BECOME ALMOST STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA TODAY WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY FORCING
UPDRAFTS. STORMS ALSO ALREADY DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND DROPPING HEAVY RAINS. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO
CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING AS SURFACE HEATING ALONE WILL INITIATE
STORMS DUE TO A LACK OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. SUBSEQUENT OUTFLOWS
WILL FURTHER GENERATE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT. THUS FLASH
FLOOD WATCH WILL BE CONTINUED. HIGH AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY/STRONG
UPDRAFTS MAY ALSO SUPPORT HAIL FORMATION FOR ISOLATED STORMS WHILE
DCAPE VALUES INDICATE NEAR SEVERE DOWNBURST POTENTIAL.

ON SATURDAY LOW LEVEL SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL SUSTAIN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE INFLOW WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS AROUND 60
CONTRIBUTING TO VERY HIGH 1.5 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND HEATING WILL ALSO KEEP AIR MASS UNSTABLE WITH CAPES
AROUND 1000 J/KG. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANTS OF
FRONT WILL ALSO INDUCE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. THUS EXPECT
AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH HEAVY RAINS ON SATURDAY.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY UPPER HIGH BUILDS OVER THE REGION WHILE LEE
SURFACE TROUGH FORMS TO THE EAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOW LEVEL
WINDS BECOMING MORE WESTERLY WITH ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR AT LOW
LEVELS UNDER WARMING ALOFT. THUS AIR MASS BECOMES MORE STABLE
RESULTING IN A DECREASE IN STORM COVERAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG
WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. WINDS BECOME MORE EASTERLY WEDNESDAY
WITH ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN MOISTURE CAUSING HIGHER STORM THREAT
LATER PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 27/00Z-28/00Z.
P6SM SCT060-080 SCT-BKN120-150 THRU PD WITH SCT 1-3SM +TSRA
BKN030-040CB THRU 06Z AND AGAIN AFT 16Z. WINDS BECOMING E TO SE THRU
06Z AT TERMINALS GENERALLY UNDER 10KTS EXCEPT GUSTS TO 45KTS
POSSIBLE NEAR TSMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
AND WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY WITH A LITTLE DECREASE IN COVERAGE FOR SUNDAY. MAIN
THREAT WITH STORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING AS SLOW
STORM MOVEMENT IN A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT WILL LEAD TO LOCALIZED
AREAS SEEING AN INCH OR TWO OF RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.
WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER
RIDGE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER AREA. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EACH
AFTERNOON THOUGH. TEMPERATURES OVER THE LOWLANDS WILL BE WARMING
BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING INTO THE
15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 74  89  73  92  74 /  50  40  40  40  20
SIERRA BLANCA           68  84  67  87  68 /  40  40  40  40  30
LAS CRUCES              70  87  69  91  70 /  50  40  40  40  20
ALAMOGORDO              70  88  69  91  70 /  50  40  40  40  20
CLOUDCROFT              50  67  50  70  51 /  50  40  40  40  30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   68  86  68  92  69 /  50  40  40  40  20
SILVER CITY             62  80  61  84  61 /  50  50  50  30  20
DEMING                  69  88  68  93  69 /  50  40  40  40  20
LORDSBURG               69  88  68  93  68 /  60  50  50  30  20
WEST EL PASO METRO      73  88  72  91  73 /  50  40  40  40  20
DELL CITY               70  89  69  91  70 /  40  30  30  30  20
FORT HANCOCK            72  88  71  92  72 /  40  40  40  40  30
LOMA LINDA              67  83  66  86  67 /  50  40  40  40  20
FABENS                  73  88  72  92  73 /  50  40  40  40  20
SANTA TERESA            72  87  71  92  72 /  50  40  40  40  20
WHITE SANDS HQ          71  86  70  91  71 /  50  40  40  40  20
JORNADA RANGE           68  86  68  91  69 /  50  40  40  40  20
HATCH                   69  85  69  90  69 /  50  40  40  40  20
COLUMBUS                70  87  70  93  71 /  50  40  40  40  20
OROGRANDE               71  88  69  92  71 /  50  40  40  40  20
MAYHILL                 57  75  57  78  58 /  40  40  40  40  30
MESCALERO               56  76  56  80  57 /  50  40  40  40  30
TIMBERON                57  74  57  77  57 /  50  40  40  40  30
WINSTON                 59  78  59  83  59 /  60  50  50  40  30
HILLSBORO               64  82  64  87  64 /  50  40  40  40  20
SPACEPORT               68  85  67  90  68 /  50  40  40  40  20
LAKE ROBERTS            60  80  59  84  59 /  60  50  50  40  30
HURLEY                  64  83  64  87  64 /  50  50  50  30  20
CLIFF                   67  87  65  92  65 /  60  50  50  30  20
MULE CREEK              62  83  61  89  61 /  60  50  50  30  20
FAYWOOD                 65  82  64  87  65 /  50  50  50  30  20
ANIMAS                  68  87  67  92  68 /  60  50  50  30  20
HACHITA                 68  87  67  92  68 /  50  50  50  30  20
ANTELOPE WELLS          66  86  67  90  67 /  60  50  50  30  20
CLOVERDALE              64  83  64  87  64 /  60  50  50  30  20

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NMZ401>417.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR TXZ418>424.

&&

05 ROGASH/26 GRZYWACZ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1007 AM MDT FRI JUL 26 2013

NMZ401>417-TXZ418>424-271700-
UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-SOUTHERN GILA HIGHLANDS/BLACK RANGE-
SOUTHERN GILA FOOTHILLS/MIMBRES VALLEY-
SOUTHWEST DESERT/LOWER GILA RIVER VALLEY-LOWLANDS OF THE BOOTHEEL-
UPLANDS OF THE BOOTHEEL-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-
EASTERN BLACK RANGE FOOTHILLS-SIERRA COUNTY LAKES-
NORTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY-SOUTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY/MESILLA VALLEY-
CENTRAL TULAROSA BASIN-SOUTHERN TULAROSA BASIN-
WEST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500 FEET-
EAST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-OTERO MESA-
WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY-EASTERN/CENTRAL EL PASO COUNTY-
NORTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS/HUECO MOUNTAINS-SALT BASIN-
SOUTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS-
RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN EL PASO/WESTERN HUDSPETH COUNTIES-
RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN HUDSPETH COUNTY-
1007 AM MDT FRI JUL 26 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NM AND TX.

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEW
MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS...

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. A FEW STORMS WILL PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALLS WITH OVER
2 INCHES OF RAIN FALLING ACROSS ISOLATED LOCATIONS. THUS FLASH
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AROUND LOW WATER CROSSINGS AND
NEAR ARROYOS AND SMALL STREAMS. A FEW STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE
DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH AND HAIL UP TO AN INCH IN DIAMETER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY.
A FEW STORMS WILL AGAIN PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALLS WITH OVER 2
INCHES OF RAIN FALLING ACROSS ISOLATED LOCATIONS. THUS THE RISK OF
FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY AROUND LOW WATER CROSSINGS
AND NEAR ARROYOS AND SMALL STREAMS. A FEW STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE
DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH AND HAIL UP TO AN INCH IN DIAMETER.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THUS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCES OF MAINLY MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT ANY OBSERVED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OR FLOODING TO
THIS OFFICE OR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT..

ROGASH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX
1151 AM MDT FRI JUL 26 2013

TXZ420>424-261830-
NORTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS/HUECO MOUNTAINS TX-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF
EASTERN EL PASO/WESTERN HUDSPETH COUNTIES TX-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF
EASTERN HUDSPETH COUNTY TX-SALT BASIN TX-SOUTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS
TX-
1151 AM MDT FRI JUL 26 2013

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THREATENING SOUTHERN HUDSPETH COUNTY THROUGH
1230 PM MDT/130 PM CDT/...

AT 1142 AM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
HUDSPETH COUNTY.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  SIERRA BLANCA...
  INDIAN SHOT SPRINGS...
  FRENCHMAN CANYON...
  BOSQUE BONITA...
  INDIO RANCH...
  ALLAMOORE...
  FORT QUITMAN...
  ESPERANZA...
  LITTLE BOX...
  QUITMAN CANYON...

TORRENTIAL RAIN MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED ROADWAY.

ROGASH