Flash Flood Warning 29, NWS El Paso, TX

340 
WGUS74 KEPZ 212206
FFSEPZ

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX
406 PM MDT SUN JUL 21 2013

NMC017-220000-
/O.CON.KEPZ.FF.W.0029.000000T0000Z-130722T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
GRANT NM-
406 PM MDT SUN JUL 21 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EAST CENTRAL GRANT
COUNTY UNTIL 600 PM MDT...

AT 401 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED 
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE WARNED AREA...BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 
0.30 TO 0.50 INCHES HAVE ALREADY FALLEN ACROSS THE SILVER FIRE BURN 
AREA OF GALLINAS CANYON. THIS IS ENOUGH TO TRIGGER FLASH FLOODING 
DOWNSTREAM OF THE BURN SCAR.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  SHERMAN...
  SAN JUAN...
  FAYWOOD...
  IRON CREEK CAMPGROUND...
  GALLINAS CANYON...
  SR61 BETWEEN SHERMAN AND FAYWOOD...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. 
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY. DO 
NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN 
DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY AUTOMOBILE.

IN HILLY TERRAIN THERE ARE HUNDREDS OF LOW WATER CROSSINGS WHICH ARE
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS IN HEAVY RAIN. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL ACROSS
FLOODED ROADS. IT ONLY TAKES A FEW INCHES OF SWIFTLY FLOWING WATER TO
CARRY VEHICLES AWAY.

&&

LAT...LON 3296 10783 3294 10778 3286 10777 3278 10774
      3261 10787 3275 10793

$$

PARK

320 
WGUS74 KEPZ 212352
FFSEPZ

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX
552 PM MDT SUN JUL 21 2013

NMC017-220007-
/O.EXP.KEPZ.FF.W.0029.000000T0000Z-130722T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
GRANT NM-
552 PM MDT SUN JUL 21 2013

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR EAST CENTRAL GRANT
COUNTY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 600 PM MDT...

EXCESS RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED OVER THE WARNED AREA. ARROYOS
OR STREAMS IN THE WARNED AREA HAVE RECEDED OR WERE BEGINNING TO
RECEDE...ENDING THE FLOOD THREAT.

BE AWARE OF DEBRIS SCATTERED ACROSS ROADWAYS AT WASHES AND LOW WATER
CROSSINGS. IF YOU HAVE OBSERVED FLOODING...PLEASE REPORT IT TO YOUR
LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.

LAT...LON 3296 10783 3294 10778 3286 10777 3278 10774
      3261 10787 3275 10793

$$

PARK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
242 AM MDT SUN JUL 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY BUILD BACK OVER THE BORDERLAND
THROUGH MID-WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO WARMER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THERE WILL ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND HOWEVER FOR
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AND WEST WITH ISOLATED STORMS FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN LOWLANDS.

BY NEXT WEEKEND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SWEEP INTO
THE AREA INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR RAIN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUING RECENT TREND OF BUILDING UPPER HIGH INTO THE
REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. 00Z HIRES-EAST/NSSL WRF/SPC
WRF/4KM AF ENSEMBLES ALL INDICATE LESS CONVECTION TODAY/TONIGHT
THAN SATURDAY WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR AND NO SIGNIFICANT ORGANIZING
DISTURBANCE. SINCE INHERITED POP GRIDS REFLECTED THIS TREND NICELY
MADE NO CHANGES THERE. I WILL HOWEVER KEEP A MODERATE RISK OF BURN
SCAR FLOODING FOR THE SILVER FIRE REGION BASED ON RAINFALL
SATURDAY NIGHT LOWERING THE AMOUNT NEEDED FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING.

2ND INVERTED TROUGH EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. BUMPED THE POPS UP A BIT WITH A BRIEF UPTICK
IN MOISTURE.

THINGS RETURN TO A WEAK...MAINLY WEST CENTERED...MONSOONAL PATTERN
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE REGION PER GFS/ECMWF/CMC EARLY SATURDAY. MODELS VARY
IN PRECIP COVERAGE FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BUT ALL POINT TO INCREASED
COVERAGE FROM THE WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY PERIOD. HAVE BUMPED POPS UP A
BIT...BUT THEY WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE RAISED MORE AS WE GET INTO
THE WORK WEEK SINCE BACKDOOR COLD FRONTS IN LATE JULY CAN BE
POTENT RAIN (AND SEVERE WEATHER) PRODUCERS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 211200Z-221200Z
GNRLY VFR CONDS W SCT070-090 SCT180-200 SCTD BKN040CB OVC080 TSRA
WEST OF THE CONT DIVIDE AND MTNS W ISOLD -TSRA ELSEWHERE BTWN 2118
AND 2205Z. LCL WIND GUSTS TO 35KT W A FEW STORMS, SEE TAFS FOR ADDTL
DTLS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ALOFT OVER THE AREA...A WEAK RECYCLING
MONSOONAL PATTERN WILL PERSIST MOST OF THE WEEK WITH RELATIVELY
HUMID CONDITIONS...LOW HAINES...POOR TO INFREQUENTLY GOOD
VENTILATION. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST FOR THE AREA WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND THE
SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS WITH ISOLATED STORMS ELSEWHERE.
STORMS COULD STILL PRODUCE LOCALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 89  72  93  73  95 /  20  20  20  30  20
SIERRA BLANCA           89  68  91  70  92 /  20  20  30  20  20
LAS CRUCES              88  69  94  70  95 /  20  20  20  20  20
ALAMOGORDO              90  68  94  71  96 /  20  20  20  20  20
CLOUDCROFT              69  50  71  52  74 /  30  40  40  30  30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   88  68  92  70  95 /  20  20  30  30  20
SILVER CITY             82  63  83  63  85 /  30  30  40  30  40
DEMING                  88  67  91  68  94 /  20  20  30  30  20
LORDSBURG               88  67  90  67  93 /  20  30  30  30  30
WEST EL PASO METRO      88  73  92  74  95 /  20  20  20  20  20
DELL CITY               88  66  92  68  92 /  20  20  20  20  10
FORT HANCOCK            92  72  95  73  96 /  20  20  30  30  20
LOMA LINDA              83  64  87  66  91 /  20  20  30  30  20
FABENS                  89  71  93  73  95 /  20  20  30  30  20
SANTA TERESA            88  69  92  71  96 /  20  20  20  20  20
WHITE SANDS HQ          89  71  93  73  95 /  20  20  20  30  20
JORNADA RANGE           88  65  93  67  96 /  20  20  20  30  20
HATCH                   86  69  91  70  93 /  20  20  20  20  20
COLUMBUS                87  69  91  70  94 /  20  20  30  20  20
OROGRANDE               90  68  94  69  97 /  20  20  20  20  20
MAYHILL                 76  56  80  58  82 /  30  30  30  30  40
MESCALERO               80  56  83  56  87 /  30  40  30  20  30
TIMBERON                74  55  77  58  80 /  20  30  30  20  30
WINSTON                 80  59  83  59  85 /  40  30  40  30  30
HILLSBORO               84  66  87  66  90 /  20  20  30  30  30
SPACEPORT               88  67  93  69  95 /  20  20  20  20  20
LAKE ROBERTS            81  60  83  60  85 /  50  50  60  40  50
HURLEY                  82  63  85  64  87 /  30  30  40  30  30
CLIFF                   88  62  89  64  93 /  40  30  40  30  40
MULE CREEK              84  56  85  59  88 /  40  30  40  40  40
FAYWOOD                 83  65  84  65  88 /  30  30  30  30  30
ANIMAS                  85  67  88  67  91 /  30  30  30  30  30
HACHITA                 86  66  89  67  92 /  20  30  30  30  30
ANTELOPE WELLS          82  66  86  65  89 /  30  30  30  30  30
CLOVERDALE              77  63  81  63  84 /  30  40  30  30  40

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

02/02

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1138 AM MDT SUN JUL 21 2013

NMZ401>417-TXZ418>424-221745-
UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-SOUTHERN GILA HIGHLANDS/BLACK RANGE-
SOUTHERN GILA FOOTHILLS/MIMBRES VALLEY-
SOUTHWEST DESERT/LOWER GILA RIVER VALLEY-LOWLANDS OF THE BOOTHEEL-
UPLANDS OF THE BOOTHEEL-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-
EASTERN BLACK RANGE FOOTHILLS-SIERRA COUNTY LAKES-
NORTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY-SOUTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY/MESILLA VALLEY-
CENTRAL TULAROSA BASIN-SOUTHERN TULAROSA BASIN-
WEST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500 FEET-
EAST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-OTERO MESA-
WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY-EASTERN/CENTRAL EL PASO COUNTY-
NORTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS/HUECO MOUNTAINS-SALT BASIN-
SOUTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS-
RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN EL PASO/WESTERN HUDSPETH COUNTIES-
RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN HUDSPETH COUNTY-
1138 AM MDT SUN JUL 21 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NM AND TX.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. STORMS WILL BE MORE FREQUENT OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH
HIGHER RAIN AMOUNTS EXPECTED. STORMS WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL...SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH.
LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE NEAR STRONGER STORMS. MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCCUR OVER FLOOD SENSITIVE AREAS LIKE THE
SILVER FIRE BURN SCAR OF THE EAST GILA REGION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
EACH AFTERNOON AND NIGHT TIME THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THERE
MAY BE AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS DEEPER
MOISTURE MOVES OVER THE AREA. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM STRONGER
STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT ANY OBSERVED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OR FLOODING
TO THIS OFFICE.

LUNDEEN