Flash Flood Warning 124, NWS El Paso, TX

775 
WGUS74 KEPZ 162156
FFSEPZ

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX
356 PM MDT MON SEP 16 2013

NMC017-162208-
/O.EXP.KEPZ.FF.W.0124.000000T0000Z-130916T2200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
GRANT NM-
356 PM MDT MON SEP 16 2013

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN GRANT
COUNTY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 400 PM MDT...

EXCESS RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED OVER THE WARNED AREA. ARROYOS
OR STREAMS IN THE WARNED AREA HAVE RECEDED OR WERE BEGINNING TO 
RECEDE...ENDING THE FLOOD THREAT. RESIDUAL RUNOFF MAY STILL POSE 
SOME PROBLEMS IN THE AREA SO CAUTION IS STILL ADVISED.

BE AWARE OF DEBRIS SCATTERED ACROSS ROADWAYS AT WASHES AND LOW WATER
CROSSINGS. IF YOU HAVE OBSERVED FLOODING...PLEASE REPORT IT TO YOUR 
LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OVER THE AREA MAY BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS 
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

LAT...LON 3318 10785 3315 10786 3314 10785 3306 10784
      3304 10786 3301 10785 3300 10786 3298 10784
      3289 10783 3276 10792 3299 10807

$$

NOVLAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
243 AM MDT MON SEP 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WE CAN'T SEEM TO GET THIS MOISTURE SWEPT OUT OF THE REGION AS LOW
AND MID LEVEL FLOW PERSISTS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. THIS CONTINUES TO
IMPORT TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE BORDERLAND DESPITE MINIMAL DRYING
ALOFT IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE RESULT WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
AND TONIGHT. THINGS DON'T CHANGE MUCH THOUGH THE WEEK. EACH DAY
WILL SEE A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER JUST
BELOW NORMAL ALL WEEK. EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOULD SEE SOME
STORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
JUST WHEN THE MODELS PROMISE DRYING...WE SEND UP A RADIOSONDE THAT
REPORTS MOISTENING. ACTUALLY THE MODELS HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT
NONCOMMITTAL IN DRYING OUT THE REGION AND THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE
HAS BEEN SHORT OF HIGH RECENTLY DUE TO A NON-DISCRIPT PATTERN AND
NEARBY FEATURES WITH DRAMATICALLY OPPOSED WEATHER RESULTS. TO OUR
NORTH LURKS A WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WITH MUCH DRIER AIR OFF
THE PACIFIC. THIS FLOW HAS BROUGHT IN SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT OVER OUR
REGION. HOWEVER THE FEATURE WHICH CONTINUES TO BE THE MORE
INFLUENTIAL ONE FOR OUR FORECAST AREA IS LOW AND MID LEVEL
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF AN EAST TEXAS UPPER HIGH
WHICH STREAMS DEEP SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTH OVER OUR CWFA
THROUGH A WEAKNESS BETWEEN THAT RIDGE AND ONE TO OUR WEST OVER THE
BAJA.

AGAIN TONIGHT OUR PW SHOT UP TO 1.2". THE RESULT IS SCATTERED
NOCTURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. A FEATURE IN THE DRIER SW
FLOW ALOFT IS ACTUALLY COMPLIMENTING THE MOISTURE IN PLACE. WEAK
DISTURBANCES ARE TRACKING OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES IN THE FLOW
ALOFT AND AND HELPING TO INITIATE STORMS. THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO
HANG OVER THE AREA AGAIN TODAY. THE GFS IS BULLISH ON ADDING MORE
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT OFF OF TWO TROPICAL STORM SYSTEMS
OVER MEXICO...MANUEL AND INGRID. THIS WOULD HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE
FAR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN NW BORDER ZONES. WE HAVE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED POPS IN ALL ZONES TODAY...TONIGHT...AND TUESDAY.

FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST IS A BIT
HIGHER THAN USUAL. MODELS SUGGEST SOME DRYING OVER THE GILA REGION
AS MOISTURE GETS SKEWED A BIT TO THE SE BY A PASSING SHALLOW
TROUGH. THIS WOULD PLACE A PCPN GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WITH
BEST RAIN/STORM CHANCES SE AND LOWERING POPS TO THE NW. HOWEVER
MODELS INDICATE SOME WEAK RIDGING OVER THE AREA WHICH WOULD
DISPLACE THE DRIER WESTERLIES NORTH AND ALLOW MOISTURE TO LINGER.
FOR NOW WE HAVE THE PERIODS HEDGED WITH ISOLATED POPS...WITH
BETTER CHANCES OVER AREA MOUNTAINS. TEMPS LOOK TO HANG A BIT BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 16/12Z-17/12Z...
MOSTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AGAIN TODAY. EXPECT P6SM FEW-
SCT120 SCT-BKN200 WITH AREAS OF MVFR TO IFR VCNTY THUNDERSTORMS.
WINDS GNRLY BETWEEN 090-150 AT 5 TO 15 KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
VERY MINOR DRYING OCCURRING ACROSS THE REGION AS THE SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE PLUME FROM MEXICO HAS BEEN CUT OFF TEMPORARILY BY
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER LOW LEVEL FLOW IS KEEPING PLENTY
OF MOISTURE OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL MAKE FOR FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS TO DEVELOP AGAIN ACROSS THE FIRE WEATHER ZONES
TODAY AND TONIGHT. FORECAST MODELS BRING IN SOME ADDITIONAL TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH LATER TUESDAY WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO FUEL
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO THE WEEKEND. MIN RH
VALUES WILL RUN FROM 30% TO 40% LOWLANDS AND 40% TO 55% HIGHLANDS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 85  67  83  65  86 /  20  10  20  10  10
SIERRA BLANCA           85  62  83  60  86 /  20  10  20  10  10
LAS CRUCES              83  63  81  61  84 /  10  10  20  10  10
ALAMOGORDO              86  65  84  63  87 /  20  10  20  10  10
CLOUDCROFT              62  49  60  47  64 /  40  20  40  30  30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   83  61  81  59  84 /  10  10  20  10  10
SILVER CITY             77  61  75  59  78 /  20  20  20  10  10
DEMING                  83  62  81  60  84 /  10  10  10  10  10
LORDSBURG               84  63  82  61  85 /  10  10  10   0  10
WEST EL PASO METRO      85  68  83  66  86 /  20  10  20  10  10
DELL CITY               85  61  83  59  86 /  20  10  20  10  10
FORT HANCOCK            88  65  86  63  89 /  20  10  20  10  10
LOMA LINDA              83  64  81  62  84 /  20  20  20  10  10
FABENS                  85  67  83  65  86 /  20  10  20  10  10
SANTA TERESA            84  65  82  63  85 /  10  10  20  10  10
WHITE SANDS HQ          83  64  81  62  84 /  20  10  20  10  10
JORNADA RANGE           83  62  81  60  84 /  10  10  20  10  10
HATCH                   80  62  78  60  81 /  10  10  10  10  10
COLUMBUS                83  65  81  63  84 /  10  10  10  10  10
OROGRANDE               85  66  83  64  86 /  20  10  20  10  10
MAYHILL                 69  54  67  52  70 /  40  20  40  20  20
MESCALERO               73  54  71  52  74 /  40  20  40  30  20
TIMBERON                72  52  70  50  73 /  40  20  40  30  20
WINSTON                 74  53  72  50  74 /  30  20  20  10  10
HILLSBORO               81  60  79  58  82 /  20  20  20  10  10
SPACEPORT               82  61  80  59  83 /  10  10  10  10  10
LAKE ROBERTS            77  58  75  54  78 /  30  20  20  10  10
HURLEY                  79  60  77  58  80 /  20  20  20  10  10
CLIFF                   80  55  78  53  81 /  20  20  20  10  10
MULE CREEK              82  53  80  51  83 /  20  20  10  10  10
FAYWOOD                 80  61  78  59  81 /  20  20  20  10  10
ANIMAS                  84  63  82  61  85 /  10  10  10   0  10
HACHITA                 82  61  80  59  83 /  10  10  10  10  10
ANTELOPE WELLS          82  59  80  57  83 /  10  10  10  10  10
CLOVERDALE              82  60  80  58  83 /  10  20  10  10  10

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

14-BIRD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1120 AM MDT MON SEP 16 2013

NMZ401>417-TXZ418>424-171730-
UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-SOUTHERN GILA HIGHLANDS/BLACK RANGE-
SOUTHERN GILA FOOTHILLS/MIMBRES VALLEY-
SOUTHWEST DESERT/LOWER GILA RIVER VALLEY-LOWLANDS OF THE BOOTHEEL-
UPLANDS OF THE BOOTHEEL-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-
EASTERN BLACK RANGE FOOTHILLS-SIERRA COUNTY LAKES-
NORTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY-SOUTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY/MESILLA VALLEY-
CENTRAL TULAROSA BASIN-SOUTHERN TULAROSA BASIN-
WEST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500 FEET-
EAST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-OTERO MESA-
WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY-EASTERN/CENTRAL EL PASO COUNTY-
NORTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS/HUECO MOUNTAINS-SALT BASIN-
SOUTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS-
RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN EL PASO/WESTERN HUDSPETH COUNTIES-
RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN HUDSPETH COUNTY-
1120 AM MDT MON SEP 16 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NM AND TX.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ENOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION TO GENERATE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE RIVER THROUGH
TONIGHT. RAIN AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN PREVIOUS
DAYS...HOWEVER WITH THE GROUND BEING SATURATED FROM PREVIOUS RAIN
EVENTS...ANY FUTURE RAIN FALL WILL BECOME RUNOFF WHICH MAY BECOME
EXCESSIVE IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS AND DRAINAGES. HIGH FLOODING
POTENTIAL CONTINUES FOR AREAS ADJACENT TO THE SILVER FIRE BURN
SCAR WHERE EVEN MODERATE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL COULD GENERATE
FLOODING. RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH AND NEAR
FLOOD STAGE AS WATER CONTINUES TO DRAIN OFF OF SATURATED SOIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE HIGHER GENERALLY EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE BUT CAN NOT RULE
OUT SOME RAIN FOR THE SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS OF THE GILA REGION. NEXT WEEKEND IS EXPECTED TO SOMEWHAT
DRIER AS A WEST FLOW PUSHES MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT ANY OBSERVED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OR FLOODING
TO THIS OFFICE AND LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT.

LUNDEEN