Freeze Watch 5, NWS Eureka, CA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
400 AM PDT SUN OCT 27 2013

.SYNOPSIS...MORE CLEARING IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST TODAY AS A
WEAK SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
EARLY THIS WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES DOWN FROM THE NORTH.
A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS INTERIOR NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
&&

.DISCUSSION...WV IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LOW OFF THE CTL CA COAST WITH
ANOTHER TROUGH DIGGING DOWN THE PAC NW COAST. INCREASED MIXING
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW MORE SUNSHINE FOR
COASTAL AREAS TODAY WHILE INTERIOR AREAS REMAIN SUNNY WITH NEAR
NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENING OVER THE W COAST
OVERNIGHT INTO MON...BUT SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES ON THE STRENGTH AND
PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW. COLD POOL ALOFT MAY RESULT IN A FEW
SHRA OVERNIGHT THROUGH MON...SO MAINTAINED SCHC POPS. THE MAIN
IMPACT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE COLDER TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION.
UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT INLAND MON INTO TUE WITH COLDEST TEMPS THIS
SEASON TUE MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN FROST/FREEZE REMAINS HIGH TUE
MORNING WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE ON WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE WED
MORNING. THIS AIRMASS WILL ALSO RESULT IN COOLER MAX TEMPS ACROSS
THE INTERIOR WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S MON AND TUE. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW BROAD RIDGE BUILDING OVER W COAST WED WITH A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. MODEL
SOLUTIONS DIVERGE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND BUT THE GENERAL TREND
IS FOR A TROUGH TO APPROACH THE REGION SOMETIME NEXT WEEKEND...SO
KEPT POPS AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
&&

.AVIATION...STRATUS AND FOG REMAIN ENTRENCHED ALONG MUCH OF THE
COAST THIS MORNING BUT CHANGES ARE AFOOT. MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL
PASS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL BREAK THE LOW-LEVEL INVERSION
AND INCREASE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING. THAT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO BREAK
THE STRATUS AND CLEAR SKIES OUT ALONG MUCH OF THE COAST BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THERE MAY EVEN BE LOW-TOPPED CONVECTIVE SHOWERS PASSING
THROUGH THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY INLAND, BUT ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
ISOLATED AND BRIEF. OTHERWISE ONCE CLOUDS BREAK DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
STRATUS ACTIVITY TONIGHT WITHOUT MUCH OF A LOW-LEVEL INVERSION.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
TONIGHT ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AND OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AAD
&&

.MARINE...NO SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AVAILABLE THIS MORNING BUT BUOY
OBS INDICATING NORTHERLY WINDS ARE CONTINUING TO INCREASE OVER THE
WATERS. CAPE MENDOCINO CDIP BUOY UP TO 8 FT IN FACT AND SHIP OBS
OVER THE NRN OUTER WATERS INDICATE SOME WINDS ALREADY APPROACHING 30
KT. OPTED TO HOIST A GALE WARNING FOR THE OUTER WATERS...BUT JUST
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WERE ISSUED FOR THE INNER WATERS AS WELL IN-LINE
WITH THE GALE WARNINGS. THE WORST CONDITIONS WILL BE TONIGHT WITH
SOME 40 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE OVER THE SRN OUTER WATERS. REST OF
FORECAST REMAINS THE SAME WITH RAPID IMPROVEMENT OF CONDITIONS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. A FEW LONGER
PERIOD SWELL TRAINS WILL AFFECT THE WATERS DURING THE MIDDLE TO
LATER PORTIONS OF THE WEEK BUT WILL BE MAINLY LOW IN AMPLITUDE.
MODELS DISAGREE HEADING TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND BUT GENERAL TREND IS
TOWARD A COLD FRONT BRINGING A PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE
WATERS LATER SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. AAD
&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT PDT TONIGHT
PZZ450.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PDT TODAY PZZ470-475.
GALE WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT PDT TONIGHT PZZ470.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 4 PM PDT MONDAY PZZ455.
GALE WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 4 PM PDT MONDAY PZZ475.

&&

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
605 AM PDT SUN OCT 27 2013

CAZ001>003-076-281315-
REDWOOD COAST-MENDOCINO COAST-NORTH COAST INTERIOR-
MENDOCINO INTERIOR-
605 AM PDT SUN OCT 27 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TUE AND WED MORNINGS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
FREEZING TEMPERATURES TO INLAND AREAS WITH FROST POSSIBLE TO THE
COAST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

CAZ004-281315-
UPPER TRINITY RIVER-
605 AM PDT SUN OCT 27 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.