Fire Weather Watch 3, NWS Eureka, CA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
441 AM PDT SAT AUG 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...A TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE WEST COAST WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL TODAY. HOT
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE INTERIOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR SOUTH WILL BRING AN INCREASED
THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOG SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWS SOME CLOUDS ALONG
THE COAST. THEY SHOULD BURN OFF THIS MORNING. A TROUGH OVER THE
WEST COAST WILL ALLOW INLAND TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL
TODAY. MODELS BACKED OFF ON THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OVER THE
TRINITY ALPS THIS AFTERNOON, SO REMOVED THEM FROM THE FORECAST. AS
WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK THE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE INLAND,
ALLOWING FOR OFFSHORE FLOW. THIS WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO HEAT
UP ACROSS THE INTERIOR TO AT OR ABOVE THE 100 DEGREE MARK AND FOR
CONDITIONS TO BECOME VERY DRY. MODELS STILL ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING A CUT OFF LOW TO OUR SOUTH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK AND
THEN SLOWLY BEING ABSORBED INTO THE OVERALL PATTERN BY MID TO LATE
WEEK. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY NOW PLACES THE THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST OF OUR AREA FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY,
WITH THE GREATEST THREAT BEING MONDAY AFTERNOON. MADE MINIMAL
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS TO REFLECT THIS. ALSO ADDED HEAVY RAIN AND
WINDS TO SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS FORECASTED BECAUSE MODEL
SOUNDINGS HINT AT THIS. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE INCREASING DUE
TO THE HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH THUNDERSTORMS, SO MORE PRODUCTS
MAY BE ISSUED IN RELATION TO THIS IN THE COMING DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...WHILE BAND OF STRATUS REMAINED ALONG THE MENDOCINO
COAST, THE APPROACHING WALL OF STRATUS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS HAS
BEEN SLOW TO APPROACH THE NORTH COAST. KCEC DOWN TO 200 FT CIGS
AND 1SM VSBY. DO NOT EXPECT THE LOWER VSBYS TO LAST WITH AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE LIFTING THE MARINE LAYER AND INCREASING
GRADIENT AIDING BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING...BUT WOULD NOT RULE IT OUT
EITHER WITH ADIABATIC COOLING/CONDENSATION PROCESSES AND ONSHORE
FLOW. SIMILAR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED BY 12Z FOR THE REST OF
THE COAST. WITH INCREASING NORTHERLY FLOW, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE
CAPE, CLEARING SHOULD TAKE PLACE BY MIDDAY THERE, BUT AM LESS
CONFIDENT OF MUCH CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON NORTH OF THE CAPE. A
WINDOW FROM 23Z TO 05Z WOULD BE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY. INLAND SOME
TOWERING CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS BUT THE BIGGER
CONCERN TO AVIATION WILL BE SMOKE FROM FIRES AROUND NE HUMBOLDT
AND NW TRINITY COUNTY. AAD

&&

.MARINE...NORTHERLY WINDS GRADUALLY BEGINNING TO PICK UP
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN OUTER WATERS WHERE ALL AVAILABLE DATA
POINTS TOWARD 10 TO 20 KTS TO START THE DAY. ELSEWHERE CONDITIONS
WILL STILL NOT BE TOO TERRIBLE BY THE END OF THE DAY...WITH MOST
OF THE WATERS BELOW 20-25 KTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER THE
INCREASE WILL STILL BE RATHER DRAMATIC COMPARED TO THE VERY LIGHT
WINDS AND SEAS EXPERIENCED OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. CONTINUED MWS
TO HIGHLIGHT THESE CONDITIONS FOR THOSE WITH MARINE INTERESTS.
STRONGER WINDS AND STEEPENING SHORT-PERIOD SEAS WILL EXPAND ON
SUNDAY. CURRENT ADVISORIES LOOK GOOD...BUT WE WILL NEED A SCA FOR
SEAS 7-10 FT AT 7 SECS FOR THE INNER WATERS STARTING SUNDAY
EVENING OR MONDAY. ALSO WILL LIKELY NEED A HAZ SEAS WARNING FOR
THE OUTER WATERS FOR THE SAME PERIOD. LIKELY GUSTS TO GALE FORCE
ON MONDAY FOR THE OUTER WATERS. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY SORT OF GALE
WATCH AT THIS POINT BUT DAY SHIFT MAY NEED TO RECONSIDER DEPENDING
ON NEW MODEL DATA. SPEAKING OF WHICH, THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE
LATEST MODELS DECREASE WINDS SOONER, WITH MUCH IMPROVED CONDITIONS
BY WEDNESDAY. AAD

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CA...NONE.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM PZZ470-475.

&&

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.EUREKA.GOV
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA

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