Special Weather Statement, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1152 PM CDT Fri Aug 2 2013

.UPDATE...
Issued at 640 PM CDT FRI AUG 2 2013

Storm development along a slowly southward-sinking frontal boundary
this evening is looking increasingly unlikely as surface heating
wanes and midlevel clouds continue to override the boundary. A few
isolated storms could still form in the southwest corner of the CWA
where cu currently looks a little more robust, but the probability of
widespread precipitation is fairly low for the rest of the evening.

The better chance for storms tonight should be where the low-level
jet and a westward moving shortwave trough interact over south
central to SE KS, which will be primarily south and west of the
forecast area. A few additional storms are possible across our
southern tiers of counties tonight if the aforementioned features
can build far enough north and east, but overall, the probability of
seeing storms tonight has lessened.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 329 PM CDT FRI AUG 2 2013

Northwest flow persists across the center of the nation today. This
brought storms to eastern Kansas and western Missouri overnight,
which has lead to a weak, and poorly defined, MCV drifting east
through Missouri today. Satellite imagery and early afternoon storms
development both highlight the presents of a weak surface boundary
left behind by this mornings activity, roughly oriented along a
line from south of Topeka east southeast through far southern Kansas
City, then east along Highway 50. This has left MLCAPE values across
east central Kansas and west central Missouri in the 2500 J/KG
range, though given that surface temperatures in the vicinity of the
boundary are in the 80s, much of this instability is currently
elevated.

Further development for storms late this afternoon and this evening
will remain possible, especially across southeast Kansas where the
available free energy is to be found. Thoughts are that with the MCV
moving ever east this afternoon, more development in southeast
Kansas will be possible thanks to the insolation. Variety of short
range models point at the development of storms in this region,
which, given the the moisture feed from the southwest, should allow
for a forward propagating convective complex to shift from eastern
Kansas into southern Missouri tonight, likely south of Kansas City.
Storms may spread into Central Missouri and parts farther north late
tonight as the nocturnal jet kicks in, but its nose is forecast to be
in southeast Kansas, so northern development of storms does not look
good. Storms south of Highway 50 late this afternoon and overnight
might contain some severe weather, likely in the form of large hail
or torrential rain.

Saturday...activity from tonight, and the boundaries that leaves
behind, will dictate where storms are Saturday; but at this time
much of the potential convective activity is expected to be to our
south or east, particularly by the afternoon hours. A day without
storms across eastern Kansas or Missouri will allow temperatures to
bound back up to around normal for early August.

Sunday...in the morning hours another MCS will develop over the
western Plains State in response to the nocturnal jet. This complex
is forecast to move southeast into the Kansas-Missouri border by
sunrise Sunday. This should make storms likely across areas from
east central Kansas through central Missouri Sunday morning. With
the expectation of another MCV floating across Missouri Sunday,
cloud cover and precipitation should keep temperatures below normal.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT FRI AUG 2 2013

For the long term forecast the upper level flow flattens out and
should remain rather stagnant with heights rising slowly late in the
period as a broad, deep layer trough remains parked over the far
western U.S. and an upper level low traverses slowly east across
lower Canada. As a result a series of low amplitude waves are progged
to move through the region generating low chance pops each period.
Unfortunately, confidence remains low in the timing of the waves so
the forecast sounds wetter than it probably will be. The latest
medium range models favor locations north of the I-70 corridor to see
the better chances for precip, but that will surely change in future
model updates. Thus a broad brush approach was taken for precip
chances. Daytime temperatures are expected to be at or slightly below
normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1151 PM CDT FRI AUG 2 2013

Isolated shower or thunderstorm development is possible across
northeast KS and portions of W central MO over the next few hours;
however, the more likely scenario will be for storms currently over
south central and southeast KS to track eastward into areas mainly
south of I-70 after 06z tonight. Elsewhere, skies will remain VFR and
winds will be light, varying in direction between E and NE. Any
storms that do make it into the area will move out between 12z-14z
Saturday morning, leaving behind VFR conditions and continued light
easterly winds.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...Laflin
SHORT TERM...Cutter
LONG TERM...Pietrycha
AVIATION...Laflin

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
644 PM CDT FRI AUG 2 2013

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-031200-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
644 PM CDT FRI AUG 2 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A FEW ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING MAINLY SOUTH OF
I-70...AND ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS POSSIBLE OVER THE SAME AREA
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED...A FEW STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL OR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE STARTING EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY. HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70.

LAFLIN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
100 AM CDT SAT AUG 3 2013

KSZ057-060-030700-
LINN KS-MIAMI KS-
100 AM CDT SAT AUG 3 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LINN AND SOUTHWESTERN MIAMI
COUNTIES IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS UNTIL 200 AM CDT...

AT 1253 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM LYNDON TO
NEW STRAWN TO BURLINGTON TO 7 MILES WEST OF LE ROY TO 17 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF BURLINGTON...CONTINUED TO MOVE EAST AT 40 MPH.

THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REACH WESTERN MIAMI AND LINN COUNTIES OF
KANSAS PRIOR TO 2 AM.  THESE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND POTENTIAL WIND GUSTS
APPROACHING 60 MPH.  FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING IS ALSO EXPECTED.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  OSAWATOMIE...PAOLA...MOUND CITY...BLUE MOUND...PARKER...FONTANA AND
  BEAGLE.

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

LAT...LON 3803 9508 3811 9508 3826 9508 3826 9507
      3862 9507 3859 9480 3815 9473 3803 9476
TIME...MOT...LOC 0557Z 281DEG 37KT 3860 9569 3830 9565
          3822 9565 3809 9570 3802 9591

DUX