Severe Thunderstorm Warning 127, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
314 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2013

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 303 PM CDT TUE JUL 2 2013

Well developed mid-upper level circulation per water vapor imagery
continues to drift southward through Iowa. Ahead of this feature,
strong isolation has pushed temperatures into the lower 80s,
generating 1000-1250 J/kg of CAPE despite dewpoints only in the low
50s. Recent upper air measurements show that this circulation has
augmented the wind field, with a narrow corridor of 40 knot
southerlies at 300mb. Through the balance of the afternoon and early
evening, short-lived pulsed storms will build south from IA into
northern MO. A few storms along the eastern flank of the upper
circulation (NE MO) could become a bit more robust (small hail/gusty
winds) due to the enhanced anvil exhaust.

This feature, the primary vortex near St. Louis, and a third upper
level trough over western Arkansas will do the Fujiwhara dance over
the Show-Me state tomorrow, with models poorly representing the
unique circulations as one expansive closed 576 height contour at
500mb. Expect fairly expansive Cu development by late morning, with
scattered afternoon-eve convection across the CWA. Temperatures just
a scoche cooler owing to broken cloud cover.

4th of July: Overall trends show the conglomerate circulation
drifting west toward the Flint Hills, which should focus diurnal
convection primarily over the Ozarks. Given the close proximity,
still can't rule out isolated, brief showers/storms in the afternoon,
but expect most of the region will be dry, with highs in the mid 80s
and low humidity.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 303 PM CDT TUE JUL 2 2013

Friday through Tuesday...

Large Rocky Mountain and western Atlantic ridges will block the
pattern through the extended portions of the forecast. This will put
the squeeze on the central US trough...eliminate it completely by
Sunday or Monday as the western US ridge expands eastward. Models show dry
conditions for most of the CWA through Sunday given the lack of
upper vort max/cool pockets. Models show weak energy keeping the
ridge from building into the CWA too strongly progressing through
the cwa on Monday and Tuesday. This will bring a return to potential
precipitation early next work week and keep temps in check. In a
nutshell the extended will be mostly dry through the weekend with
precip returning for Mon and Tues. Temps should remain at or below
average values through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT TUE JUL 2 2013

Well defined mid level circulation over IA quite evident on water
vapor imagery, but not on other satellite channels. Downstream
(south) of this feature, expect that VFR cumulus will readily
develop over the next hour, spreading into NW MO during the
afternoon. Forcing appears sufficient to drive at least widely
scattered showers (perhaps a few thunderstorms) over this region
later this afternoon, but coverage right now appears too limited to
warrant inclusion in the TAFs.

Winds will remain light from the north-northeast at 6-8 knots across
the terminals this afternoon, becoming light and variable after 00Z.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Bookbinder
LONG TERM...Bailey
AVIATION...73

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1256 PM CDT TUE JUL 2 2013

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-031100-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
1256 PM CDT TUE JUL 2 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWEST MISSOURI LATER
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BOTH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOONS...WITH ACTIVITY PERSISTING INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...BUT A FEW STORMS
COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS PRESENTLY NOT ANTICIPATED.

BOOKBINDER

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