Severe Thunderstorm Warning 123, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
630 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2013

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 340 PM CDT THU JUN 27 2013

Convective complex from earlier today has left a fairly stable
airmass in its wake, with MCI aircraft soundings depicting poor lapse
rates atop a relatively cool boundary layer. This has significantly
cut back on severe potential for this afternoon as the primary cold
front over southeast Nebraska pushes into the forecast area this
evening. Still, surface temperatures and dewpoints are trying to
quickly recover, and may become supportive for weak convection
entering far northwest MO to maintain intensity or even strengthen
slightly as it pushes southeast into ern KS and western MO this
evening. An isolated strong storm is possible given adequate shear
profiles, but overall severe threat appears low enough that Severe
Thunderstorm Watch 378 was not brought eastward into this area, and
Watch 376 will be allowed to expire.

For Friday, 850 hPa temps will gradually fall behind the front but
with mostly clear skies will still be supportive of highs in the 80s,
possibly near 90 south of KC.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 340 PM CDT THU JUN 27 2013

Northwest upper level flow will continue for much of the extended
period with a large upper trough strengthening across the Great Lakes
and Ohio Valley over the weekend. Inverted trough on the west edge of
this system will rotate through the mid-Mississippi Valley on
Saturday night and Sunday and could produce scattered showers and a
few storms given weak instability over the area. Guidance is in good
agreement that the upper trough to the east will begin to close off
and retrograde westward early next week. This will maintain
temperatures that are several degrees below average, generally in the
upper 70s and near 80. Could see isolated to scattered showers or
storms in this pattern, particularly during the afternoon, but
chances for widespread precipitation appear low enough to keep PoPs
limited to slight chance for now.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 626 PM CDT THU JUN 27 2013

VFR conditions are expected at terminals through the period. Light
precipitation is possible at TAF sites with an isolated chance of a
nearby thunderstorm through 02Z. Thereafter, conditions will improve
with decreasing clouds and northerly winds overnight.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Hawblitzel
LONG TERM...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Blair

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
653 PM CDT THU JUN 27 2013

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-281200-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
653 PM CDT THU JUN 27 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS
AND FAR WESTERN MISSOURI...WHERE A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG. THE
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL END AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN THROUGH NORTH
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MISSOURI ON SATURDAY. THESE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. ADDITIONAL SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST BY MIDWEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

BLAIR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1112 PM CDT THU JUN 27 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1110 PM     HAIL             SW RAYMORE              38.80N 94.45W
06/27/2013  E1.00 INCH       CASS               MO   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

LAFLIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1115 PM CDT THU JUN 27 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1113 PM     HAIL             RAYMORE                 38.80N 94.45W
06/27/2013  M1.75 INCH       CASS               MO   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

GAMIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1129 PM CDT THU JUN 27 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1112 PM     HAIL             2 SW RAYMORE            38.78N 94.48W
06/27/2013  M0.88 INCH       CASS               MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

GAMIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1131 PM CDT THU JUN 27 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1110 PM     HAIL             RAYMORE                 38.80N 94.45W
06/27/2013  M1.00 INCH       CASS               MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            58 HIGHWAY AND JOHNSTON PARKWAY.

&&

GAMIS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1132 PM CDT THU JUN 27 2013

MOZ038-044-280515-
JOHNSON MO-LAFAYETTE MO-
1132 PM CDT THU JUN 27 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN LAFAYETTE AND WESTERN
JOHNSON COUNTIES IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI UNTIL 1215 AM CDT...

AT 1129 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM LEVASY TO GARDEN
CITY...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  HOLDEN...ODESSA...HIGGINSVILLE...WARRENSBURG...WELLINGTON...
  MAYVIEW...CHILHOWEE...QUICK CITY...PITTSVILLE...LAKE LAFAYETTE...
  CENTERVIEW...FAYETTEVILLE AND POST OAK.

THIS WILL IMPACT

 I-70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 31 AND 51.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

LAT...LON 3857 9412 3866 9412 3914 9409 3914 9405
      3916 9402 3917 9399 3915 9399 3914 9396
      3917 9394 3919 9368 3856 9374
TIME...MOT...LOC 0432Z 270DEG 25KT 3910 9404 3858 9409

BLAIR/PMM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1136 PM CDT THU JUN 27 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1113 PM     HAIL             3 E BELTON              38.81N 94.48W
06/27/2013  E1.00 INCH       CASS               MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

1115 PM     HAIL             RAYMORE                 38.80N 94.45W
06/27/2013  E1.25 INCH       CASS               MO   BROADCAST MEDIA

            5 MINUTES OF HALF DOLLAR SIZED HAIL...RELAYED BY KCTV5

&&

LAFLIN