Severe Thunderstorm Warning 107, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
214 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2013

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 158 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

The main concern in the next 12 to 24 hours deals with potential for
severe convection this afternoon and this evening, with additional
severe storms possible tonight or early Sunday morning.

Convection developed early this afternoon in an axis of extremely
unstable air characterized by MUCAPE values in the 3000 to as much
as 5000 J/kg range. Excessively high precipitable water values, in
or greater than the 99th percentile for this time of year, combined
with slow storm movement will lead to localized flash flooding for
areas that do see thunderstorms. Marginal wind shear, around 30 to
as much as 35 knots seems to be main inhibitor for severe
convection. But given the extreme instability severe convection is
likely with the strongest storms. Large hail is possible but the
biggest threat should be from damaging winds and localized flash
flooding.

There may be another round of storms tonight along an advancing cold
front. But an MCV ahead of the front, which is aiding convective
development currently in northwestern Missouri, makes projecting the
front southward difficult. So there is considerable uncertainty with
any potential for a second round. SPC short range ensemble data for
convection allowing models highlight a period of time from 00Z to 06Z
and based on 12Z deterministic models that seems reasonable.
Convection should develop on that boundary this evening and then
track to the south. The biggest question will be just how intense
they may be as the move southward into the forecast area. Latest
model runs, including the high-resolution WRF suggest some weakening
is likely which limits the severe potential. This makes sense as
shear decreases as the front approaches and instability weakens as
well. Should any storms become severe with this activity damaging
winds and localized flooding look to be the biggest threats. Large
hail may also be a concern but with a decreasing trend to the
convection, think winds will be the bigger issue.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 58 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

Monday through Saturday...

Models show broad slow eastward progression of the upper ridge
during the course of the week. Early on...forecast soundings
continue to show potential for thunderstorms on Monday as the ridge
remains knocked down limiting the cap. Tuesday and Wednesday should
be dry. As the ridge builds in mid to late week wouldn't be
surprised to see thunderstorms pass through on the edge of the
advancing cap...best chances Thursday afternoon and/or evening.
Temperatures will moderate from slightly below normal early in the
week to slight above normal by late in the week as the ridge has
fully built in.

Bailey

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1205 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

This is a very uncertain forecast for the next 12 to 18 hours. With
a plethora of potential boundaries to initiate storms within the
unstable airmass but only modest shear, this is just one of those
days where storms could develop anywhere and basically any time this
afternoon and this evening. So there is rather extended period of
VCTS from this afternoon through early tomorrow morning. Models hint
that the most probable time for storms in the area may be from 03 to
06Z. So have included a tempo TSRA group during that period of time.
Otherwise, if convection shows itself, amendments will be issued.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...CDB
LONG TERM...Bailey
AVIATION...CDB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1255 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-161215-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
1255 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN
MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS... THESE
STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME SEVERE. LARGE HAIL... DAMAGING WINDS AND
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE
STORMS.

MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THESE STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL... DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AND
FLOODING POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. WHILE THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR AT ANY TIME DURING
THIS PERIOD...SUNDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT IS THE MOST FAVORED
PERIOD FOR MORE ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO EXIT THE REGION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

LATER IN THE WEEK THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER DURING THIS PERIOD IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

CDB

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
419 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0418 PM     HAIL             GLADSTONE               39.20N 94.56W
06/15/2013  M0.88 INCH       CLAY               MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

GAMIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
423 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0420 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 NW LIBERTY            39.29N 94.47W
06/15/2013                   CLAY               MO   NWS EMPLOYEE

            THUNDERSTORM WINDS HAVE GUSTED FROM 60 TO 70 MPH AND
            LASTED 5 TO 7 MINUTES. SEVERAL TREES UP TO 8 INCHES IN
            DIAMETER HAVE BEEN SNAPPED OFF.

&&

GAMIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
428 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0412 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     5 S GALLATIN            39.84N 93.96W
06/15/2013                   DAVIESS            MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            A WALL CLOUD AND FUNNEL CLOUD WERE REPORTED AROUND 5
            MILES SOUTH OF GALLATIN.

&&

GAMIS

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>