River Flood Warning 96, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
652 PM CDT Tue May 28 2013

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 349 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013

Tonight...A moderately unstable airmass in addition to moderate
effective bulk shear will provide an environment favorable for strong
to severe weather this afternoon through early tonight.
Thunderstorms have developed primarily in two areas. Area #1 is
within the warm sector driven by an approaching shortwave trough.
Area #2 is along the synoptic stationary front and remnant outflow
boundary. Currently, the environment is slightly more conducive to
severe weather north of Interstate 70. Anticipate additional storms
to develop across the CWA and over eastern Kansas during the
remainder of the afternoon and evening. A tornado watch remains in
effect until 10pm CDT. Additionally, any persistent moderate to heavy
rainfall may further aggravate ongoing flooding. Multiple rivers are
currently in or forecast in flood, and with saturated grounds, the
potential for flash flooding is also possible.

Wednesday...A negatively-tilted upper trough ejects into the Plains
on Wednesday, with much of the flow becoming meridional. At the
surface, a dryline will be located over western Kansas, acting as a
primary mechanism for convective initiation. Much of this activity
will remain west of the CWA throughout the day, resulting in many
areas remaining dry. Strong upper forcing will lead to scattered to
numerous thunderstorms over western and central Kansas. The overall
convective evolution remains uncertain, and likewise specific
details to timing and intensity are not well resolved at this time.
What activity that does develop out west will work its way eastward
overnight into portions of the CWA, maintained in part by a strong
50-60kt nocturnal LLJ. Assuming the environment remains sufficiently
unstable as operational models suggest, isolated strong/severe
weather will be possible over eastern Kansas and western Missouri
overnight, with strong straight-line winds the primary hazard.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 349 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013

Thursday through Tuesday...Forecast uncertainty increases by
Thursday into Saturday as the overall evolution of the upper trough
is handled differently among operational guidance. The locations of
the dryline/cold front make gradual progression eastward during the
end of the work week. Therefore forecast on Thursday follows the
most probable scenario for convection to initially develop near or
just outside of the CWA in closer proximity to the surface foci and
gradually move towards the area during the evening/overnight.
Probabilities for convection will increase Friday as the cold front
nears the region. Moderate shear and sufficient instability,
assuming the boundary layer can recover from any nocturnal
convection, still look to be juxtaposed ahead of the cold front,
suggesting the possibility of organized storm modes and subsequent
strong/severe weather threat. The cold front pushes through the CWA
on late Saturday or early Sunday, with dry weather expected Sunday
into Tuesday as high pressure builds into the Missouri Valley.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 638 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013

Tricky TAF period in the near term with warm front located along a
central Kansas up into Iowa, cutting across NW Missouri north of
St. Joes. Meanwhile further to the south, an outflow boundary
from earlier today has convection developing and moving to the
northeast. Some question remains as to if and how much convection
might begin to fill in between these two boundaries early in the
TAF as the low level jet begins to increase across the region.
Convection will begin to decrease later this evening as warm front
begins to move northward. Winds will increase by tomorrow morning
as surface pressure gradient increases across Kansas. Another
round of convection is expected by tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Wednesday morning FOR KSZ025-102.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Wednesday morning FOR MOZ001>008-
     011>017-020>025-031>033-039-040.

&&

SHORT TERM...Laflin/Blair
LONG TERM...Blair
AVIATION...PMM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
713 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-291130-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
713 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SLOWLY PROGRESS ALONG A
STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED ACROSS NORTHWEST MISSOURI. THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED ALONG SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT FORMED
FROM CONVECTION EARLIER TODAY. THIS DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
AND STRONG WIND SHEAR WILL ALLOW SOME STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE.
LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER HAZARD...ALONG
WITH STRAIGHT-LINE WIND DAMAGE. A FEW TORNADOES MAY ALSO BE
POSSIBLE...THUS A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 10PM CDT
TONIGHT. ADDITIONALLY...STORMS MAY REPEATEDLY TRACK ACROSS THE
SAME AREAS THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...PRODUCING
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER LOCATIONS THAT HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL SINCE MONDAY MORNING. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE REGION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY AS A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS INTERACTS WITH A
NEAR STATIONARY FRONT. SEVERAL PERIODS OF STRONG OR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME...BUT THE PRIMARY
CONCERN WILL BE A PERSISTENT HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT. SEVERAL
ADDITIONAL INCHES OF RAINFALL ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE MIDDLE TO LATE
WEEK PERIOD WHICH MAY LEAD TO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

PMM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
545 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0541 PM     HAIL             WESTBORO                40.54N 95.32W
05/28/2013  E1.00 INCH       ATCHISON           MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

BAILEY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
602 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013

MOZ002-282330-
NODAWAY MO-
602 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN NODAWAY COUNTY UNTIL 630
PM CDT...

AT 557 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF BURLINGTON JUNCTION...OR 14
MILES EAST OF TARKIO...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  HOPKINS...CLEARMONT AND PICKERING.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY....AND A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS
AREA. BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS
LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS....FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

LAT...LON 4057 9472 4047 9469 4040 9518 4048 9518
      4048 9520 4058 9520
TIME...MOT...LOC 2302Z 257DEG 21KT 4051 9509

CDB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
612 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0607 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 NW TARKIO             40.47N 95.42W
05/28/2013                   ATCHISON           MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HWY AA UNDERWATER WEST OF HWY 59 NORTHWEST OF TARKIO

&&

BAILEY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
625 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013

MOZ002-290015-
NODAWAY MO-
625 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN NODAWAY COUNTY UNTIL 715
PM CDT...

AT 620 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR BURLINGTON JUNCTION...OR 14 MILES NORTHWEST
OF MARYVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH EXTREMELY HEAVY RAIN AND
FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  HOPKINS...CLEARMONT AND PICKERING.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY....AND A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS
AREA. BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS
LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS....FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

LAT...LON 4057 9467 4042 9463 4038 9514 4054 9518
      4058 9502
TIME...MOT...LOC 2325Z 257DEG 14KT 4047 9505

CDB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
715 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013

MOZ003-005-290100-
HARRISON MO-WORTH MO-
715 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WORTH AND NORTHWESTERN HARRISON
COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM CDT...

AT 712 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF RAVENWOOD...OR 15 MILES
NORTHEAST OF MARYVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  GRANT CITY...WORTH...DENVER...ALLENDALE AND HATFIELD.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

LAT...LON 4039 9408 4038 9445 4039 9460 4039 9461
      4047 9461 4047 9462 4054 9463 4058 9447
      4058 9410
TIME...MOT...LOC 0015Z 257DEG 31KT 4045 9459

CDB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
742 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013

MOZ007-290115-
PUTNAM MO-
742 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN PUTNAM COUNTY UNTIL 815
PM CDT...

AT 740 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF UNIONVILLE...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  UNIONVILLE AND LIVONIA.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY....AND A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS
AREA. BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS
LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS....FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4057 9270 4056 9271 4056 9268 4054 9271
      4052 9268 4050 9269 4050 9268 4048 9270
      4042 9270 4038 9300 4039 9312 4043 9314
      4059 9279 4059 9272
TIME...MOT...LOC 0043Z 246DEG 31KT 4039 9304

CDB