River Flood Warning 54, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
654 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2013

.UPDATE...
Issued at 652 PM CDT WED APR 17 2013

With the warm front remaining mainly along a line from Blue Mound KS
to Bunceton MO, the severe threat will be limited for the remainder
of the evening. A few thunderstorms will continue to track along and
south of the boundary and could produce large hail over the next few
hours, but storms to the north will remain elevated and have only a
slight potential to produce hail up to quarter size. A second round
of convection developing in central and eastern Kansas will push
northeast this evening, and will move through the forecast area over
the next several hours. This is unlikely to be severe, unless a few
tail end storms can interact with the warm front across the southern
edge of the forecast area.

Storms currently in central Oklahoma are projected to lift northeast
along the main cold front, bringing another round of thunderstorms
into the western edge of the CWA around midnight. These thunderstorms
may form into a linear complex but the severe potential will be
limited by the stable layer near the ground, which will make it
difficult to accelerate wind gusts to the surface. A few more robust
storms could produce some hail, but the overall severe threat will be
fairly low.

For the rest of the evening and tonight, the main threat is likely to
be flooding. Additional rainfall of 1 to 2 inches or more will be
possible with the next two rounds of thunderstorms, which will fall
on already saturated ground across much of the area. A flash flood
watch remains in effect over the entire area through 7 PM Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT WED APR 17 2013

Activity for the rest of today...warm front keeps trying to lift
into central Missouri, and as of this writing it has made it to a
line from Butler through Clinton, Sedalia and Boonville. Activity
north and south of the warm front has begun to realize stronger
updrafts over the past hour thanks to the instability advecting in.
This is opening up our potential for severe weather for this
evening. Focus for severe from now through through 7PM will be along
and south of this narrow corridor along the southern edge of our
forecast region. Large hail, and damaging winds continue to be the
primary threats, but isolated tornadoes will also remain possible
across areas south of a line from southern Kansas City to Moberly
through this evening.

Later tonight, thunderstorm activity, currently moving northeast
through central Kansas, is tied to the secondary shortwave but has
some of the upper level support of the main longwave trough. This
activity looks like it will ride northeast on the cool side of the
surface frontal boundary, which will help reinforce the cold pool
across northern Missouri. This looks to limit the severe threat to
the southern half of the forecast area for the evening hours as
focus for convection is expected to stay in the warm sector,
southern Missouri north to around the Missouri River. Late tonight,
after midnight, through Thursday morning is when the main longwave
trough is expected to shove a cold front east through our forecast
area. Shear along the advancing front will be sufficient for
isolated severe weather, large hail and damaging winds, but QLCS
modes will also be possible as 0-3KM shear remains in the 50KTS
range as the front advances across the region.

Thursday...slow progress of the front across the region overnight
will likely leave the front in central Missouri come the morning
hours. This will allow temperatures to warm into the 60s for at
least part of the day, before the cold air advection sweeps in and
brings the cooler weather. Shower and isolated thunderstorms will
remain possible through the day Thursday, though the focus for any
severe weather will be farther east.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT WED APR 17 2013

Longwave trough will be moving through Kansas and Missouri as
Thursday night arrives. Cold dry air rushing into the base of the
trough across eastern Kansas and Missouri will help bring our
persistent rain potential to an end Thursday night into Friday
morning. There will be a small window of opportunity for some
freezing precipitation types to mix into any precipitating still
falling late Thursday night, near the Iowa border with little to no
accumulations. Cold air that will stay in place through Friday
keeping conditions well below normal, with moderately below normal
temperatures expected to persist through the weekend into next work
week.

Late in the weekend another shortwave trough will pass through the
Plains States, heralding the arrival of a longwave trough that will
dig through the Rockies into the Plains States. This will push
temperatures back down for the coming work week, adding confidence
to the below normal temperatures forecast. Otherwise, with the
leading shortwave trough, and the follow on longwave trough, the
potential for precipitation will spread back into the region
persisting across the forecast area from Sunday through Wednesday.
At this time the best potential for storms to occur looks to be
Monday night as the upper level support from the main longwave
trough shifts into the Plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 652 PM CDT WED APR 17 2013

LIFR to low-end IFR conditions are expected to persist across the
area through the next several hours, with cloud bases around 4-5 kft
and patchy fog with visibilities as low as 2 miles. A few rounds of
thunderstorms will move through the area between now and Thursday
morning, which could reduce visibility even further under the
strongest storms. Thunderstorms should begin to push out of the
region by sunrise, with a few lingering showers possible, but
ceilings gradually lifting to MVFR by early afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Thursday evening FOR KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Thursday evening FOR MOZ001>008-
     011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

UPDATE...Laflin
SHORT TERM...PMM/Cutter
LONG TERM...Cutter
AVIATION...Laflin

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
102 PM CDT WED APR 17 2013

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-181130-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
102 PM CDT WED APR 17 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT
NORTHWARD TOWARDS NORTHERN MISSOURI BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. A FEW TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM
FRONT. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT WITH A LINE OF POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS FORMING
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND SWEEPING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS THE STORMS EVOLVE INTO A LINEAR SYSTEM...THE
THREAT OF LARGE HAIL WILL DECREASE...WITH AN INCREASING RISK OF
DAMAGING WINDS. A FEW TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITHIN THIS LINE OF
STORMS DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THE REPEATED ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN LIKELY...AND
POSSIBLY AS MUCH AS 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH STORMS THAT TRAIN OVER THE
SAME AREA. THESE RAINS COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING AS WELL AS
FLOODING ON AREA CREEKS AND RIVERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE
EXITING THE REGION. STORM SEVERITY WILL QUICKLY DECREASE BY THURSDAY
MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH TONIGHT.

PMM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
611 PM CDT WED APR 17 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0610 PM     HAIL             BUNCETON                38.79N 92.80W
04/17/2013  E0.75 INCH       COOPER             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

ABAILEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
642 PM CDT WED APR 17 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     HAIL             7 ESE NEW FRANKLIN      38.98N 92.62W
04/17/2013  M1.25 INCH       HOWARD             MO   COCORAHS

&&

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