River Flood Warning 23, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1143 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2013

...Updated for Aviation...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 900 PM CDT WED APR 10 2013

Widespread rains have shifted east of the CWA this evening, therefore
have cancelled flood watch. Weak shortwave energy rotating around the
trough will continue to produce a band of showers and moderate
drizzle as it pivots into the region. HRRR guidance seems to capture
ongoing trends well, with this band of showers pivoting into northern
Missouri and eventually Iowa by Midnight.

Otherwise remaining forecast remains on track as temperatures slowly
cool through the 30s overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 408 PM CDT WED APR 10 2013

Late This Afternoon through Thursday:

Can finally see the light at the end of the tunnel with respect to
the moderate rain and embedded convection. Latest satellite imagery
and radar data show a firm back edge to the post-frontal rain from
east-central KS through eastern OK. The entire region is lifting
northeastward at a fairly quick pace. The latest RAP mass fields/QPF
have the best handle on this and have sped up the ending time of the
rain over the CWA for this evening. While the moisture above h7 will
be stripped away by a pronounced dry slot, and thus putting an end
to the widespread rain, there will be relatively deep and nearly
saturated layer up through at least h8 so can't rule out the
occasional sprinkle once the main rain band moves through.

The upper low and associated deep/positively tilted trough from the
Central High Plains through the Southern Rockies will continue to
influence our sensible weather through tomorrow. This feature is
expected to shift east while the low deepens over eastern NE/western
IA and the trough axis takes on a more neutral tilt. Am expecting
considerable low level moisture to remain trapped over the region
and provide a blanket of clouds through tomorrow. There will likely
be at least one mid level vorticity maxima that will rotate under the
primary upper low and track across eastern KS and northern MO on
Thursday. This feature could produce patches of light rain over much
of the CWA. However, the rain may be only enough to wet the pavement
south of Highway 36. North of this line will go with chance PoPs.
Will also need to consider some light snow over the northwest corner
of MO in the morning as progged soundings forecast just enough ice
crystals to support this threat.

As for temperatures will favor the consensus approach for overnight
lows while going under NAM/GFS MOS guidance due to the extensive
cloud cover and unseasonably cold airmass.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 408 PM CDT WED APR 10 2013

Thursday night through Wednesday...

The shortwave trough will gradually depart the region Thursday night
into Friday with cool temperatures remaining. Minimum temperatures
may drop to or a few degrees below freezing both Friday and Saturday
mornings, so those with agricultural interest or sensitive
vegetation concerns should closely monitor subsequent forecasts.
Otherwise, upper level ridging builds into the central portion of
the CONUS Saturday and Sunday, with southerly surface winds
returning. This will spell a notable warmup Saturday and especially
on Sunday, with maximum readings on Sunday reaching the 70s in many
locations. A shortwave trough will eject northeastward out of the
Northern Plains on Sunday with an associated cold front approaching
the CWA on Sunday. The forward progression of the front will be
hindered as the upper system moves quickly away from the area. This
frontal boundary will linger across or near the CWA Sunday afternoon
as the next shortwave trough enters the plains and follows a similar
track. With little overall change to the upper air pattern and the
close proximity of the surface boundary, the potential for
precipitation will exist across portions of the area each day Sunday
through Wednesday. Temperatures will be closely tied to the position
of the front, with the warmest readings residing across the southern
portions of the CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1136 PM  CDT WED APR 10 2013

Ceilings continue to bounce between MVFR/IFR for much of the evening
hours and this variability may continue through the remainder of the
overnight hours. Visibilities will be even more variable but should
remain between 3 and 6SM through daybreak...with very brief drops to
2SM or less.

For Thursday, conditions will slowly improve through the morning,
with ceilings lifting back toward VFR levels by mid afternoon. There
could be a few sprinkles or light showers along and north of Hwy 36
in the afternoon, but confidence too low to include in 06z TAFs.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...Dux
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...Blair
AVIATION...Dux

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