River Flood Warning 2, NWS Kansas City, MO

173 
WGUS83 KEAX 301147
FLSEAX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 
547 AM CST WED JAN 30 2013
   

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
MISSOURI...
 
  MONITEAU CREEK NEAR FAYETTE AFFECTING HOWARD COUNTY.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOWING WATER. NEARLY HALF OF ALL FLOOD 
FATALITIES ARE VEHICLE RELATED. AS LITTLE AS 6 INCHES OF WATER MAY 
CAUSE YOU TO LOSE CONTROL OF YOUR VEHICLE. TWO FEET OF WATER WILL 
CARRY MOST VEHICLES AWAY.  THIS PRODUCT ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL WEATHER
AND STREAM INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KC/.

&&

MOC089-301217-
/O.CAN.KEAX.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-130131T1112Z/
/FYTM7.1.ER.130130T0507Z.130130T0745Z.130130T0927Z.UU/
547 AM CST WED JAN 30 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE MONITEAU CREEK NEAR FAYETTE.
* AT  5:30 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 15.4 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 16.0 FEET.
* FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT  3:27 AM WEDNESDAY.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THURSDAY
  MORNING.


&& 
                       LATEST                   
LOCATION          FS   STAGE  DAY/TIME    FORECAST

MONITEAU CREEK
  FAYETTE         16   15.4   WED 05 AM   15.2 THIS MORNING

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1147 PM CST Tue Jan 29 2013

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...

Short Term (Today through Wednesday)...

Focus for today's forecast has turned form the thunderstorms to the
potential for winter weather overnight into Wednesday.

Water vapor imagery this afternoon shows a large neutral trough
shifting east from the Rockies into the Plains States. Cold front,
well ahead of the trough, has already cleared the entirety of the
forecast area, which is a bit faster than anticipated. This helped
limit the severe weather early, and brought the potential to an end
by noon. With the early arrival of the front have sped up the
falling temperatures for the remainder of the day and evening hours.
This has also necessitated adjusting the snow forecast timing a
little, though mostly adjustments has been for amounts.

Model runs from both 12Z and 18Z still point at an embedded
shortwave tracking northeast behind the front, within the main body
of the trough. This embedded shortwave has already helped produce a
little snow across western Kansas into central Nebraska thanks to
the available --though limited-- moisture, and frontogenetical forcing from
the cold air advecting into the base of the trough. Moisture farther
east, over our area, is much better, and with the cold air rushing in
have gone ahead and bumped snowfall totals up. Models continue to
advertise an enhanced snowfall potential in the northwest corner
overnight, with various ingredients from decent frontogenic forcing
to a well saturated dendritic growth zone combining over our
northwest zones. Coupled with the enhanced snowfall will be some
strong winds as the pressure gradient following behind the front will
stays rather tight overnight. Winds between 20 and 30 mph are
expected with the snow as a result, which while a bit below blizzard
criteria, are sufficient with the higher snow totals to warrant
adding a winter storm warning to parts of far northern Missouri.
Areas farther south, south of Highway 36, snow totals are expected to
be a bit less, owing in part to the delay in the change over from
liquid precipitation to solid precipitation. Still, strong winds with
the falling snow during the rush hour commute will make conditions
quite hazardous Wednesday morning.

Cutter

Medium Range (Thursday through Tuesday)...

Thursday - Sunday: This portion of the extended period will be
characterized by a warming trend with dry conditions. An upper level
trough will rotate through the area on Thursday bringing with it
copious cloud cover. Conditions will remain dry however as at the
surface a ridge of high pressure building in from the northern
Plains will undercut any moisture...although flurries can not be
completely ruled out. Highs will only reach the upper teens near the
Missouri/Iowa border to the low to mid 30s across the southern CWA.
The warm up will being in earnest on Friday as high pressure resides
over the area bringing plentiful sunshine. High although warmer on
Friday, will still remain below average in the mid 20s to mid 30s.
Despite continued northwesterly flow aloft, down sloping westerly
flow will help temperatures rise into mid 30s to mid 40s. Sunday, a
cold front will get organized across the Plains states. However, out
ahead of this front, increased southerly flow will allow highs to
reach into the mid 40s to mid 50s.

Sunday night - Tuesday: The aforementioned cold front will move
through the forecast area Sunday night/Monday morning. Conditions
will still remain dry at the surface however there may be enough
moisture return for precipitation to develop along the front across
the eastern zones. As such have keep the slight chance POPs
inherited from the initialization for rain or snow across the
eastern zones. Despite the cold front passage on Sunday night/Monday
morning, models indicate that there does not appear to be cold air
in behind this front. Temperatures on Monday will be a few degrees
cooler but still above average in the low 40s to low 50s. An upper
level shortwave will drop down through the Upper Midwest on Tuesday.
And precipitation associated with this shortwave is progged to
remain north of the area. However, it will increase cloud cover
especially over the northeastern CWA. And couple the increased cloud
cover with another cool area of surface high pressure dropping into
the area from the northern Plains, and temperatures will be a few
degrees cooler ranging from the upper 30s to near 50.

73

&&

.AVIATION...

For the 06Z TAFs: A winter storm continues to rotate through the
region tonight. Dry air aloft pivoting northward over the terminals
has briefly shutoff precipitation. However, redevelopment is quickly
taking place over east central Kansas and this area of light snow/sleet
may begin to impact the terminals by 07Z-08Z. It appears that STJ may
fall longer under the influence of this initial development, with the
Kansas City terminals only skirted by this area of light snow.
Visibility restrictions in KC may be more due to fog than to snow
through 11Z.

IFR ceilings will remain in place through the daybreak hours when
current projections indicate the more larger deformation snow band in
central Kansas begins to rotate eastward. A brief reduction to LIFR
ceilings/vis may be possible as this snow band pivots through western
MO through mid-morning.

Snow should quickly come to an end by the late morning hours, with
ceilings lifting back into a high MVFR category. While not in this
TAF, VFR conditions may return later in the afternoon.

31

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST Wednesday FOR MOZ001-011-
     017-020>025-028>033-037>039.

     WINTER STORM WARNING until Noon CST Wednesday FOR MOZ002>008-
     012>016.

KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST Wednesday FOR KSZ025-
     102>105.

&&

WFO EAX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
658 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-301115-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
658 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

AN OCCASIONAL RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL
MISSOURI THROUGH 9PM. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS
AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI. THIS LARGE AREA OF SNOW WILL SPREAD EAST AND
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...REACHING THE INTERSTATE 35
CORRIDOR NEAR OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
OUTLOOK AREA BEFORE DAYBREAK. AS THE CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW
BEGINS...OCCASIONAL BURSTS OF SLEET MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY MORNING...GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST BY NOON.  TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1
TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM KANSAS CITY TO KIRKSVILLE. HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF 4-7 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM ST. JOSEPH TO
MARYVILLE...BETHANY...AND CHILLICOTHE.

ADDITIONALLY...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE BY DAYBREAK. NORTHWEST
WINDS BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH WILL LEAD TO BLOWING AND DRIFTING
SNOW...AND FURTHER INCREASE THE ALREADY HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED...BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO RELAY SNOWFALL REPORTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

DUX