River Flood Warning 14, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
624 AM CDT WED APR 10 2013

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 349 AM CDT WED APR 10 2013

Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing early this morning however any
severe threat has diminished. The main concern for today will be the
potential for areal and river flooding with several rounds of
rainfall expected through the day and into tonight. Have maintained
categorical POPs through early afternoon before decreasing POPs from
west to east as we go through the afternoon hours. Rainfall amounts
of over an inch have already fallen over portions of northwestern
Missouri and northeastern Kansas with values of half and inch to an
inch south of the Missouri River. With several rounds of
precipitation expected today an additional three quarters to an inch
and a half of precipitation will be possible and given recent snow
melt and precipitation earlier this week (Sunday) a number of creeks
and tributaries have the potential to flood.

The current precipitation over the CWA is tied to a slow moving cold
front which is pushing across the CWA this morning. This front will
exit the area this morning however several impulses behind the cold
front, but out ahead of the upper level trough over the western High
Plains, will help bring the additional rounds of rainfall. A flood
watch is currently in affect until Thursday evening.

Temperatures today behind the cold front will be significantly
cooler than yesterday with modest cold air advection. Highs today
will range from the lower 60s across the southeastern CWA to near
40 across the extreme northwestern CWA.

Speaking of temperatures, that will become a concern as we head into
tonight. The upper level trough will move into eastern Nebraska
tonight with perhaps a few light showers affecting the northern CWA.
One of the concerns with the temperatures is, what form will
precipitation be in? There is the potential for rain to mix with
snow or sleet overnight as low temperatures drop into the 30s CWA
wide. Cloud cover should keep temperatures from dropping below
freezing however if we do clear out overnight temperatures could
fall below freezing. Regardless, frost will most likely be an issue
tonight and any individuals with sensitive vegetation outside will
need to take measures to protect it. A Frost Advisory may have to be
issued later today.

Thursday the upper level trough will move through Iowa with
additional showers possible mainly across the northern CWA. Any
showers however will be light. Temperatures Thursday will remain
some 20+ degrees below average with highs only reaching into the
40s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 349 AM CDT WED APR 10 2013

Any lingering precipitation will taper off on Thursday evening as
dry air feeds in from the southwest and the upper low pushes off to
the northeast. Chilly but otherwise quiet conditions will settle in
for Thursday night through early Saturday, then more seasonable
temperatures will build into the region as return flow develops
ahead of another approaching storm system. Low temperatures both
Friday morning and Saturday morning could drop a few degrees below
freezing across the region as cold air wraps around the back side of
the low, possibly warranting frost or freeze headlines across the
area.

Rain chances will develop again by Saturday evening as moisture/
warm-air advection kicks up ahead of the approaching system, then
will increase by Sunday evening as a weak front drops into northern
Missouri. The boundary may become stationary around the Iowa border,
allowing scattered thunderstorm chances to continue into Monday and
Tuesday, especially during the nights as the low level jet kicks up
and enhances lift along the front. Precipitation cannot be ruled out
in any one period, with instability lingering along and south of the
boundary and the upper jet sitting just to the north. A deep trough
and associated surface cold front will eventually sweep this system
out of the region on Wednesday or Thursday; however, timing of this
feature is uncertain due to increasing model differences.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday) Issued at
624 AM CDT WED APR 10 2013

Several rounds of showers will impact the terminals today before
coming to an end tonight. Model soundings as well as MOS guidance
show that IFR cigs this morning will drop into LIFR by this
afternoon. Light fog will also be an issue at the terminals reducing
vsbys to 4-5SM. Winds will be out of the northwest around 10kts
today before backing to the west-northwest tonight and remaining
around 10kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLOOD WATCH through Thursday evening FOR KSZ025-057-060-102>105.

MO...FLOOD WATCH through Thursday evening FOR MOZ001>008-011>017-
     020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

SHORT TERM...73
LONG TERM...Laflin
AVIATION...73

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