River Flood Warning 103, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
621 PM CDT Wed May 29 2013

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

Multiple rounds of convection are possible through Thursday night
within a highly uncertain environment that is greatly dependent upon
previous convection and remnant boundaries. The overall larger-scale
pattern will remain favorable for severe storms in the Plains with
eastward propagating convective systems into eastern Kansas and
Missouri. The main challenge then will be whether or not severe
convection can materialize with the convective systems and/or
additional storms in the wake of any convective system, like we may
see Thursday.

With that said, convection that initiated in western Kansas this
afternoon should continue to grow up-scale and propagate eastward
with time this evening and tonight. There is a chance that these
storms maintain themselves into the western portions of the forecast
area. But cloud cover has inhibited, to some degree, the amount of
instability.  Short-range high-resolution models indicate that this
convective system may be in a decaying phase as it moves into the
western portions of the forecast area. So there is a good deal of
uncertainty regarding the severe weather risk that would be
associated with this convective complex. If it is able to maintain
itself into the forecast area, the biggest hazard would be from
damaging winds. Also, given the recent heavy rains, any additional
rainfall on top of already saturated soils would lead to a flash
flood risk.

For Thursday the uncertainty grows due to the unknowns of the
convection tonight and early tomorrow. It is likely that convection
will be ongoing early tomorrow morning, with the greatest likelihood
across northern Missouri. How these storms impact the convection
later during the day is highly uncertain due to where any outflow
would be by the afternoon and if the atmosphere can recover. If the
atmosphere can recover the threat of severe weather will
dramatically increase. The main hazards will be from large hail and
damaging winds. Depending on where boundaries may be and any
interaction with those boundaries, a few tornadoes are possible as
well.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

.Friday and Saturday...
Models continue to show last hurrah of thunderstorms moving through
the CWA Friday and Friday night. Unfortunately, these storms could
result in significant widespread flooding over the forecast area with
24 hour qpf amounts from WPC in excess of 2 inches over most of the
cwa. After these storms move off...the rest of weekend should
generally be dry and quiet.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 620 PM  CDT WED MAY 29 2013

Line of thunderstorms moving through central Kansas this evening is
expected to move eastward into the terminals late this evening around
04Z-05Z. Thunderstorms will be possible through 08Z with cigs beings
reduced to MVFR category. There will be a break in thunderstorm chances
during the early morning hours tomorrow but a second round of
thunderstorms is likely tomorrow morning. Have included VC in the TAF
at 13Z until timing of morning convection can be nailed down.
However, model soundings, as well as MOS and LAMP guidance do show
MVFR cigs are likely for tomorrow morning so have included those with
the 13Z group. Winds will be strong out of the south through the TAF period
with sustained winds between 15-20kts with gusts 25-30kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Thursday evening FOR KSZ025-102.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Thursday evening FOR MOZ001>004-
     011>013-020-021.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Thursday evening FOR MOZ005>008-
     014>017-022>025-030>033.

&&

SHORT TERM...CDB
LONG TERM...Bailey
AVIATION...73

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
637 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-301200-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
637 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

TONIGHT...A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. THESE STORMS
WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI TONIGHT...LIKELY
AS EARLY AS 8PM ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI AND NORTHEASTERN
KANSAS...AND MOVE INTO THE METRO BY 11PM. IF THESE STORMS MAINTAIN
THEIR INTENSITY INTO EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI... ANY
SEVERE WEATHER WOULD PRIMARILY BE IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING
WINDS...WITH A SECONDARY CONCERN OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE ONGOING EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING COULD
ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS...BUT THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY
BE LOW.

THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW STORMS MAY EVOLVE
THURSDAY DUE TO THE REMNANT CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLIER IN THE
DAY. IF THE ATMOSPHERE CAN DESTABILIZE BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS... IT
IS LIKELY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WOULD DEVELOP WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MOST LIKELY HAZARD. A FEW TORNADOES WOULD
ALSO BE POSSIBLE IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON.

YET ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.
AGAIN...HEAVY RAINFALL AND ADDITIONAL FLOODING ARE THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING...MAINLY ALONG AND
NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 35.

MELL

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