Alert archive / Missouri / Flash Flood Warnings in 2013

Flash Flood Warning 5, NWS Kansas City, MO

May 20, 2013Cooper County, Howard County, Missouri

NWS Kansas City, MO issued this flash flood warning at May 20, 2013, 7:09 PM CDT for Cooper County, Howard County, Missouri. It was in force for 6 hr. 1 report came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: May 20, 2013, 7:09 PM CDT (00:09 UTC)
Expired: May 21, 2013, 1:00 AM CDT
In force: 6 hr
Issued by: NWS Kansas City, MO
Area: Storm-based polygon
Flood severity: None

Counties Cooper County, MO, Howard County, MO

The radar

The Pleasant Hill radar (KEAX), 137 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:12 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
May 20, 7:40 PM CDT	FLASH FLOOD	1 W Bunceton, MO	STATE HIGHWAY J CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER.

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched one storm report to this flash flood warning; the first came 31 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 00:00Z, 0.2 hours before the alert went out and 249 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 2135 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -10 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 780 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 49 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 236 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 265 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 3.2
Supercell composite: 13.9

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

294 
WGUS53 KEAX 210009
FFWEAX
MOC053-089-210600-
/O.NEW.KEAX.FF.W.0005.130521T0009Z-130521T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
709 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PLEASANT HILL HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  COOPER COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI...
  HOWARD COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 100 AM CDT

* AT 705 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED   
  THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE WARNED AREA.     
  ESTIMATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS APPROACHING 3 INCHES WERE COMMON ACROSS 
  THE WARNED AREA DURING THE PAST 3 HOURS. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL 
  WILL AFFECT THE REGION DURING THE NEXT HOUR.

* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
  OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
  BOONVILLE...FAYETTE...ARMSTRONG...BUNCETON...NEW FRANKLIN...
  OTTERVILLE AND PILOT GROVE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. DO
NOT ENTER THE WATER. TURN AROUND AND MOVE UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO
ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN
WATER BEGINS RISING.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3898 9258 3891 9253 3869 9263 3870 9306
      3894 9305 3930 9269 3924 9244

$$

SAW

2 follow-up statements

918 
WGUS73 KEAX 210314
FFSEAX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1014 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

MOC053-089-210600-
/O.CON.KEAX.FF.W.0005.000000T0000Z-130521T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
COOPER MO-HOWARD MO-
1014 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HOWARD AND COOPER
COUNTIES UNTIL 100 AM CDT...

AT 1009 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 
HEAVY RAINFALL HAD PUSHED WELL EAST OF THE WARNED AREA. RADAR 
RAINFALL ESTIMATES OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS RANGED FROM 2 TO 3 INCHES. 
THIS HEAVY RAINFALL HAS RESULTED IN A FEW ROAD CLOSURES. 
SPECIFICALLY...STATE HIGHWAY J WAS CLOSED JUST TO THE WEST OF 
BUNCETON.

RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
BOONVILLE...FAYETTE...ARMSTRONG...BUNCETON...NEW FRANKLIN...
OTTERVILLE AND PILOT GROVE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED...ACT QUICKLY. DO NOT
ENTER THE WATER. TURN AROUND AND MOVE UP TO HIGHER GROUND. DO NOT
STAY IN AREAS SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3898 9258 3891 9253 3869 9263 3870 9306
      3894 9305 3930 9269 3924 9244

$$

SAW

383 
WGUS73 KEAX 210453
FFSEAX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1153 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

MOC053-089-210505-
/O.CAN.KEAX.FF.W.0005.000000T0000Z-130521T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
COOPER MO-HOWARD MO-
1153 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR HOWARD AND COOPER
COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH INTO THE MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY AS 
RUNOFF FROM EARLIER HEAVY RAINFALL PERSISTS ACROSS COOPER AND HOWARD 
COUNTIES. THIS WARNING HAS BEEN REPLACED BY A FLOOD WARNING WHICH IS 
IN EFFECT UNTIL 1130 AM ON TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...RIVER FLOOD 
WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE MONITEAU CREEK AT FAYETTE...AND THE 
PETITE SALINE CREEK NEAR BOONVILLE.

LAT...LON 3898 9258 3891 9253 3869 9263 3870 9306
      3894 9305 3930 9269 3924 9244

$$

SAW

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Kansas City, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at May 20, 6:00 PM CDT, 1 hour 9 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 20, 6:00 PM CDT, 1 hour 9 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
600 PM CDT Mon May 20 2013

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 311 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

Thunderstorm chances remain the focal point in the short term
portions of the forecast. Late this afternoon, convection was
beginning to blossom over southeastern Kansas and west Central
Missouri in response to a speed max rotating around the base of the
expansive upper trough.  MLCAPE values approaching 2000-3000 J/KG
have spread northeast across the KS/MO border. Initial convection
this afternoon appears to be rooted AOA 800 mb as a fairly
substantial EML persists around 850mb (as noted from 19Z aircraft
sounding from MCI). RAP/NAM soundings seem to be too aggressive in
eroding this EML this afternoon, perhaps due to the poor
initialization of mid-level moisture advection northward.
Nevertheless, these elevated supercells will continue for the
upcoming few hours with the potential for very large hail.  This
activity also is riding just north of a remnant outflow boundary
just south of the CWA, which if it can be forced northward, would
lead to a higher potential damaging winds isolated tornadoes should
storms begin to become rooted in the boundary layer. Storm
trajectories continue to push activity northeast and with flow aloft
rather unidirectional, training and flash flooding may become an
issue over the southern zones this evening.

Tonight, short term models have partially backed off on the
development of a broken line of convection over NE Kansas and NW
Missouri towards 00z as a secondary front begins to sweep into the
CWA. However, soundings continue to look favorable for severe
convection and given projected height falls, feel that this
convection may become more of a reality.

Tuesday: Secondary shortwave now beginning to rotate through Nevada
will lift northeast through southern Missouri on Tuesday. This
shortwave may produce renewed convection over the eastern CWA int
the afternoon, with severe chances primarily focused over eastern
and southeastern Missouri.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 311 PM  CDT MON MAY 20 2013

Upper level trough will gradually lift northeastward into the
southern Great Lakes region by the end of the workweek. Thunderstorm
chances will decrease as this system moves out of the region...with
some lingering convection into Wednesday morning across northern
Missouri. Cooler weather will follow the out going system with high
temperatures remaining in the 70s and lows generally in the 50s.
Shortwave ridging will begin to build into the Central Plains by the
weekend bringing warmer temperatures with it. A series of shortwave
troughs moving along the ridge will result in the chance for
scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop towards the end of
the week along a frontal boundary that is forecast to set up across
the Kansas and Missouri.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 557 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

Broken line of cumulus north of St. Joseph slowly becoming agitated
early this evening. General trends support the potential for minor
development north of St. Joseph, however feel that the KC terminals
will remain clear of additional convection.

Surface front remains just west of the state line at 6pm, and should
push eastward by 03Z. Into daybreak, expecting VFR conditions and a
west wind.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Dux
LONG TERM...PMM
AVIATION...Dux

Hazardous weather outlook, May 20, 1:06 PM CDT, 6 hours 3 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
106 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-211130-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
106 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS MAY BEGIN TO DEVELOP ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN
SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS STRETCHING EASTWARD INTO MID-MISSOURI. THESE
EVENTUAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRAVEL EAST NORTHEAST WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER NORTHEASTERN KANSAS AND
NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THESE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSOURI THIS EVENING CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI. AT
THIS TIME THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

DUX

In the hours before

Special weather statement, May 20, 4:32 PM CDT, 2 hours 37 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
432 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

MOZ045-046-202200-
COOPER MO-PETTIS MO-
432 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PETTIS AND SOUTHWESTERN COOPER
COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM CDT...

AT 428 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR SEDALIA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

ANOTHER STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR GREEN RIDGE...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS IS EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  SEDALIA...OTTERVILLE...PILOT GROVE...BUNCETON AND CLIFTON CITY.

THIS WILL IMPACT

 I-70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 87 AND 91.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY....AND A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AREA. BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV STATIONS...AS
WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS....FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND
POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3868 9295 3869 9305 3864 9306 3850 9338
      3851 9347 3874 9349 3893 9314 3893 9305
      3898 9304 3879 9270
TIME...MOT...LOC 2132Z 228DEG 30KT 3873 9313

HAWBLITZEL

Local storm report, May 20, 5:07 PM CDT, 2 hours 2 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
507 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0435 PM     HAIL             1 S WARRENSBURG         38.75N 93.74W
05/20/2013  M1.25 INCH       JOHNSON            MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TIME ESTIMATED.

&&

PMURRAY

Local storm report, May 20, 5:26 PM CDT, 1 hour 43 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
526 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0525 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     5 ENE HUGHESVILLE       38.87N 93.22W
05/20/2013                   PETTIS             MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAFFIC STOPPED ALONG 65 HWY.

&&

PMURRAY

Local storm report, May 20, 5:33 PM CDT, 1 hour 36 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
533 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     HAIL             5 S MARSHALL            39.04N 93.20W
05/20/2013  E0.88 INCH       SALINE             MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MDUX

Local storm report, May 20, 6:16 PM CDT, 53 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
616 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 PM     HAIL             5 E MOBERLY             39.42N 92.34W
05/20/2013  E1.00 INCH       RANDOLPH           MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

ADOLPHSON

Special weather statement, May 20, 6:43 PM CDT, 26 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
643 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

MOZ007-008-017-210030-
ADAIR MO-PUTNAM MO-SCHUYLER MO-
643 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN ADAIR...SCHUYLER AND
SOUTHEASTERN PUTNAM COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM CDT...

AT 639 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR NOVINGER...OR 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF
KIRKSVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  LANCASTER...GREENTOP...QUEEN CITY...DOWNING...WORTHINGTON...LIVONIA
  AND GLENWOOD.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

LAT...LON 4058 9234 4032 9235 4019 9253 4029 9281
      4059 9268 4060 9241
TIME...MOT...LOC 2343Z 217DEG 39KT 4030 9262

MELL

The office that day

Everything else NWS Kansas City, MO issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 20, 7:00 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	EAX	Henry	3 hr
May 20, 7:20 PM CDT	River Flood Warning	EAX	Bates, Cass, Henry	38 hr
May 20, 8:01 PM CDT	Areal Flood Warning	EAX	Johnson, Pettis	12 hr
May 20, 9:17 PM CDT	River Flood Warning	EAX	Howard	18 hr
May 20, 11:06 PM CDT	River Flood Warning	EAX	Cooper	34 hr
May 20, 11:49 PM CDT	Areal Flood Warning	EAX	Cooper, Howard, Johnson, Pettis, Randolph, Saline	12 hr
May 21, 1:44 PM CDT	River Flood Warning	EAX	Cooper	7 hr

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in Missouri, 2013 Every flash flood warning in 2013

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.