Severe Thunderstorm Warning 68, NWS Quad Cities, IA

285 
WWUS53 KDVN 302145
SVSDVN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
445 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

IAC045-061-097-139-163-ILC015-073-131-161-195-302230-
/O.CON.KDVN.SV.W.0068.000000T0000Z-130530T2230Z/
SCOTT IA-MUSCATINE IA-JACKSON IA-DUBUQUE IA-CLINTON IA-HENRY IL-
MERCER IL-ROCK ISLAND IL-WHITESIDE IL-CARROLL IL-
445 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN
CARROLL...WESTERN WHITESIDE...ROCK ISLAND...MERCER...HENRY...
CLINTON...EASTERN DUBUQUE...JACKSON...NORTHEASTERN MUSCATINE AND
SCOTT COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM CDT...

AT 443 PM CDT...A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM TIPTON TO WALCOTT TO BURGESS...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

HAZARD...70 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS.

IMPACT...EXPECT CONSIDERABLE TREE DAMAGE. DAMAGE IS LIKELY TO MOBILE
         HOMES...ROOFS AND OUTBUILDINGS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DAVENPORT...ROCK ISLAND...MOLINE...BETTENDORF...EAST MOLINE...
CAMBRIDGE...MAQUOKETA...CLINTON...DUBUQUE...TAYLOR RIDGE...NORTH
HENDERSON...MATHERVILLE...VIOLA...BODEN...DONAHUE...WHEATLAND...OAK
GROVE...NEW WINDSOR...MILAN AND CABLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION. THESE STORMS ARE PRODUCING 
WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE NEAR THE QUAD CITIES THROUGH 515 PM. SEEK 
SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 4263 9070 4257 9066 4248 9066 4233 9042
      4228 9043 4222 9038 4220 9032 4219 9016
      4214 9009 4117 8992 4114 8999 4115 9043
      4106 9044 4107 9085 4141 9087 4152 9090
      4229 9090 4265 9094 4265 9091 4268 9089
TIME...MOT...LOC 2145Z 221DEG 49KT 4182 9102 4163 9076
          4114 9061

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...70MPH

$$

ERVIN

061 
WWUS53 KDVN 302151
SVSDVN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
451 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

IAC045-061-097-139-163-ILC015-073-131-161-195-302230-
/O.CON.KDVN.SV.W.0068.000000T0000Z-130530T2230Z/
SCOTT IA-MUSCATINE IA-JACKSON IA-DUBUQUE IA-CLINTON IA-HENRY IL-
MERCER IL-ROCK ISLAND IL-WHITESIDE IL-CARROLL IL-
451 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN
CARROLL...WESTERN WHITESIDE...ROCK ISLAND...EASTERN MERCER...HENRY...
CLINTON...EASTERN DUBUQUE...JACKSON...NORTHEASTERN MUSCATINE AND
SCOTT COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM CDT...

AT 448 PM CDT...A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM LOWDEN TO WALCOTT TO VIOLA...AND MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 55 MPH.

HAZARD...70 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS.

IMPACT...EXPECT CONSIDERABLE TREE DAMAGE. DAMAGE IS LIKELY TO MOBILE
         HOMES...ROOFS AND OUTBUILDINGS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DAVENPORT...ROCK ISLAND...MOLINE...BETTENDORF...EAST MOLINE...
CAMBRIDGE...MAQUOKETA...CLINTON...DUBUQUE...WHEATLAND...OAK GROVE...
NEW WINDSOR...DONAHUE...CABLE...MILAN...TORONTO...ALPHA...SHERRARD...
CALAMUS AND WOODHULL.

LAT...LON 4263 9070 4248 9066 4233 9042 4228 9043
      4222 9038 4219 9016 4214 9009 4117 8992
      4114 8999 4115 9043 4106 9045 4108 9077
      4152 9090 4229 9090 4265 9094 4268 9089
TIME...MOT...LOC 2151Z 221DEG 49KT 4188 9094 4168 9072
          4120 9054

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...70MPH

$$

ERVIN

441 
WWUS53 KDVN 302201
SVSDVN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
501 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

IAC139-302210-
/O.CAN.KDVN.SV.W.0068.000000T0000Z-130530T2230Z/
MUSCATINE IA-
501 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN MUSCATINE COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...

THE LINE OF STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE 
WARNED AREA.

LAT...LON 4263 9070 4248 9066 4233 9042 4228 9043
      4222 9038 4219 9016 4214 9009 4117 8992
      4114 8999 4115 9043 4106 9045 4108 9065
      4159 9078 4165 9089 4265 9094 4268 9089
TIME...MOT...LOC 2200Z 221DEG 49KT 4197 9082 4177 9060
          4129 9043

$$

IAC045-061-097-163-ILC015-073-131-161-195-302230-
/O.CON.KDVN.SV.W.0068.000000T0000Z-130530T2230Z/
SCOTT IA-JACKSON IA-DUBUQUE IA-CLINTON IA-HENRY IL-MERCER IL-
ROCK ISLAND IL-WHITESIDE IL-CARROLL IL-
501 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN
CARROLL...WESTERN WHITESIDE...ROCK ISLAND...EASTERN MERCER...HENRY...
CLINTON...EASTERN DUBUQUE...JACKSON AND SCOTT COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM
CDT...

AT 457 PM CDT...A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM TORONTO TO DONAHUE TO CABLE...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

HAZARD...70 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS.

IMPACT...EXPECT CONSIDERABLE TREE DAMAGE. DAMAGE IS LIKELY TO MOBILE
         HOMES...ROOFS AND OUTBUILDINGS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BETTENDORF...EAST MOLINE...CAMBRIDGE...MAQUOKETA...CLINTON...
DUBUQUE...MONMOUTH...RIVERDALE...LYNN CENTER...DEWITT...ORION...
NASHVILLE...SILVIS...WARNER...ANDOVER...WELTON...CANTON...HAMPTON...
GALVA AND COLONA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION. THESE STORMS ARE PRODUCING 
WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE ACROSS SCOTT AND ROCK ISLAND COUNTIES. SEEK 
SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 4263 9070 4248 9066 4233 9042 4228 9043
      4222 9038 4219 9016 4214 9009 4117 8992
      4114 8999 4115 9043 4106 9045 4108 9065
      4159 9078 4165 9089 4265 9094 4268 9089
TIME...MOT...LOC 2200Z 221DEG 49KT 4197 9082 4177 9060
          4129 9043

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...70MPH

$$

ERVIN

338 
WWUS53 KDVN 302207
SVSDVN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
507 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

IAC045-061-097-163-ILC015-073-131-161-195-302230-
/O.CON.KDVN.SV.W.0068.000000T0000Z-130530T2230Z/
SCOTT IA-JACKSON IA-DUBUQUE IA-CLINTON IA-HENRY IL-MERCER IL-
ROCK ISLAND IL-WHITESIDE IL-CARROLL IL-
507 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN
CARROLL...WESTERN WHITESIDE...EASTERN ROCK ISLAND...EASTERN MERCER...
HENRY...CLINTON...EASTERN DUBUQUE...JACKSON AND SCOTT COUNTIES UNTIL
530 PM CDT...

AT 502 PM CDT...A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM LOST NATION TO DEWITT TO LYNN CENTER...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

HAZARD...70 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS.

IMPACT...EXPECT CONSIDERABLE TREE DAMAGE. DAMAGE IS LIKELY TO MOBILE
         HOMES...ROOFS AND OUTBUILDINGS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CAMBRIDGE...MAQUOKETA...CLINTON...DUBUQUE...GALVA...WELTON...
MONMOUTH...MCCAUSLAND...COLONA...LE CLAIRE...NASHVILLE...CLEVELAND...
RAPIDS CITY...PRINCETON...PORT BYRON...DELMAR...CANTON...OSBORN...
CORDOVA AND CHARLOTTE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION. THESE STORMS ARE PRODUCING 
WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE ACROSS CLINTON AND EASTERN SCOTT COUNTY. SEEK 
SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 4263 9070 4248 9066 4233 9042 4228 9043
      4222 9038 4219 9016 4214 9009 4117 8992
      4114 8999 4115 9043 4106 9045 4107 9056
      4149 9069 4172 9090 4229 9090 4230 9093
      4265 9094 4268 9089
TIME...MOT...LOC 2207Z 221DEG 49KT 4199 9078 4184 9051
          4136 9034

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...70MPH

$$

ERVIN

974 
WWUS53 KDVN 302213
SVSDVN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
513 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

IAC045-061-097-163-ILC015-073-131-161-195-302230-
/O.CON.KDVN.SV.W.0068.000000T0000Z-130530T2230Z/
SCOTT IA-JACKSON IA-DUBUQUE IA-CLINTON IA-HENRY IL-MERCER IL-
ROCK ISLAND IL-WHITESIDE IL-CARROLL IL-
513 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN
CARROLL...WESTERN WHITESIDE...EASTERN ROCK ISLAND...NORTHEASTERN
MERCER...HENRY...CLINTON...EASTERN DUBUQUE...JACKSON AND SCOTT
COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM CDT...

AT 511 PM CDT...A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES EAST OF LOST NATION TO LOW MOOR TO OSBORN
TO 5 MILES SOUTH OF CAMBRIDGE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS.

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MAQUOKETA...CLINTON...DUBUQUE...NASHVILLE...LOW MOOR...GENESEO...
CANTON...DELMAR...CAMANCHE...CHARLOTTE...HURSTVILLE...ALBANY...
FULTON...ERIE...ATKINSON...EAST CLINTON...GARDEN PLAIN...ANDREW...
PRESTON AND SPRAGUEVILLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION. THESE STORMS ARE PRODUCING 
WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE ACROSS CLINTON COUNTY...AND HENRY COUNTY. 
SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM 
WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 4263 9070 4248 9066 4233 9042 4228 9043
      4222 9038 4219 9016 4214 9009 4117 8992
      4114 8999 4115 9043 4134 9050 4164 9070
      4182 9090 4229 9090 4230 9093 4265 9094
      4268 9089
TIME...MOT...LOC 2212Z 221DEG 49KT 4200 9071 4184 9042
          4157 9021 4124 9015

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

ERVIN

070 
WWUS53 KDVN 302219
SVSDVN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
519 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

ILC131-302228-
/O.CAN.KDVN.SV.W.0068.000000T0000Z-130530T2230Z/
MERCER IL-
519 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN MERCER COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE LINE OF STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE 
WARNED AREA.

LAT...LON 4263 9070 4248 9066 4233 9042 4222 9038
      4219 9016 4214 9009 4117 8992 4114 8998
      4115 9034 4176 9053 4196 9090 4265 9094
      4268 9089
TIME...MOT...LOC 2218Z 221DEG 49KT 4211 9073 4189 9040
          4163 9013 4119 9007

$$

IAC045-061-097-163-ILC015-073-161-195-302230-
/O.CON.KDVN.SV.W.0068.000000T0000Z-130530T2230Z/
SCOTT IA-JACKSON IA-DUBUQUE IA-CLINTON IA-HENRY IL-ROCK ISLAND IL-
WHITESIDE IL-CARROLL IL-
519 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN
CARROLL...WESTERN WHITESIDE...NORTHEASTERN ROCK ISLAND...HENRY...
CLINTON...EASTERN DUBUQUE...JACKSON AND NORTHEASTERN SCOTT COUNTIES
UNTIL 530 PM CDT...

AT 516 PM CDT...A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM NASHVILLE TO 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF LOW MOOR TO 5
MILES SOUTHWEST OF ERIE TO GALVA...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS.

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CLINTON...DUBUQUE...CHARLOTTE...ALBANY...FULTON...ERIE...ATKINSON...
ANDREW...GARDEN PLAIN...EAST CLINTON...BERNARD...SPRAGUEVILLE...
PRESTON...ANDOVER...MILES...SPRINGBROOK...LA MOTTE...GREEN ISLAND...
SABULA AND ZWINGLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION. THESE STORMS ARE PRODUCING 
WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA. SEEK SHELTER NOW 
INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 4263 9070 4248 9066 4233 9042 4222 9038
      4219 9016 4214 9009 4117 8992 4114 8998
      4115 9034 4176 9053 4196 9090 4265 9094
      4268 9089
TIME...MOT...LOC 2218Z 221DEG 49KT 4211 9073 4189 9040
          4163 9013 4119 9007

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

ERVIN

518 
WWUS53 KDVN 302227
SVSDVN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
527 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

IAC045-061-097-163-ILC015-073-161-195-302236-
/O.EXP.KDVN.SV.W.0068.000000T0000Z-130530T2230Z/
SCOTT IA-JACKSON IA-DUBUQUE IA-CLINTON IA-HENRY IL-ROCK ISLAND IL-
WHITESIDE IL-CARROLL IL-
527 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WESTERN CARROLL...WESTERN
WHITESIDE...NORTHEASTERN ROCK ISLAND...HENRY...CLINTON...EASTERN
DUBUQUE...JACKSON AND EASTERN SCOTT COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 530 PM
CDT...

A NEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS REPLACED THIS WARNING FOR MUCH 
OF JACKSON AND EASTERN CLINTON COUNTY.

THE LINE OF STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE
WARNED AREA.  HOWEVER GUSTY WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS.

LAT...LON 4263 9070 4248 9066 4233 9042 4222 9038
      4219 9016 4214 9009 4117 8992 4114 8998
      4115 9034 4176 9053 4196 9090 4265 9094
      4268 9089
TIME...MOT...LOC 2226Z 221DEG 49KT 4219 9063 4197 9030
          4171 9003 4127 8998

$$

ERVIN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
328 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS AN OCCLUDED 850MB LOW IN THE WESTERN PARTS OF
THE DAKOTAS. THE 850MB WARM FRONT RAN FROM NEAR KFSD INTO UPPER
MICHIGAN WHILE THE 850MB COLD FRONT RAN SOUTH INTO THE BIG BEND OF
TEXAS. A MOISTURE PLUME RAN FROM NORTHERN MEXICO TO NEAR KTOP WITH A
SECONDARY PLUME FROM NEAR KILX BACK INTO NORTH DAKOTA. SATELLITE AND
RADAR TRENDS SHOW NEW CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF LAST NIGHTS
MCS.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS A SFC LOW NORTHWEST OF KMBG WITH THE SYNOPTIC
FRONT RUNNING EAST INTO UPPER MICHIGAN. ANOTHER LOW WAS IN WESTERN
OKLAHOMA WITH A DRY LINE RUNNING SOUTH INTO WEST TEXAS. NUMEROUS
TROFS FROM VORT MAXES ALOFT RAN FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BACK
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. DEW POINTS ACROSS THE MIDWEST WERE IN THE
60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

THE MCS AND LIFT TOOLS...ESPECIALLY FROM THE UKMET...ARE DEPICTING
REASONABLY WELL WHAT IS CURRENTLY GOING ON. CONVECTION AHEAD OF LAST
NIGHTS MCS SHOULD EXIT THE CWFA BY EARLY EVENING FOLLOWED BY THE
DECAYING MCS AROUND MIDNIGHT.

THE OVERALL FAST MOVEMENT OF THE DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD LIMIT THE
AMOUNT OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. THE DECAYING MCS SHOULD NOT PRODUCE MUCH ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL EITHER. THUS LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING RAINFALL SHOULD
RANGE FROM 0.25 TO POSSIBLY 1 INCH. VERY LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OVER 1
INCH ARE POSSIBLE BUT SHOULD NOT BE OVER A WIDESPREAD AREA.

BY LATE EVENING AND INTO MOST OF THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...VERY LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA. THE MCS AND
LIFT TOOLS SHOW THE NEXT MCS DEVELOPING IN NORTHWEST MISSOURI AND
MOVING TOWARD THE CWFA WITH ARRIVAL IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE
CWFA AROUND SUNRISE. AHEAD OF THE MCS...OVERALL CONVERGENCE SHOULD
ALLOW SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.

ON THURSDAY...THE NEXT MCS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWFA DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. THE STRONGEST LIFT LOOKS TO BE ACROSS ROUGHLY THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA. THUS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL SHOULD BE
ROUGHLY SOUTH OF A KSQI TO KOTM LINE. IT IS NOT CERTAIN IF TRAINING
OF STORMS WILL OCCUR. CONCEPTUALLY HOWEVER...IT IS SUGGESTED WITH
UNINTERRUPTED MOISTURE FEEDING INTO THE MCS.

BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM THE MORNING MCS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
DIURNAL CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON. THESE BOUNDARIES MAY AID IN
CONVECTION TRAINING OVER AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING.

AS FOR THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD HEADLINES...THEY WILL BE LEFT AS IS.
SOILS ARE SATURATED AND HAVE HAD LITTLE TIME TO DRY OUT. WHAT IS
BEING SUGGESTED CONCEPTUALLY FROM THE MODELS IS THAT THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAIN ON FRIDAY IS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWFA. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE VERY POSSIBLE FRIDAY. IF TRAINING OF
STORMS OCCUR...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER 2 INCHES ARE QUITE POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

FRIDAY NIGHT...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS VIABLE. 500MB LOW
BECOMES NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED OVER MINNESOTA AS A 130KT CYCLONIC
JET STREAK ROTATES OVER THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 00Z TO 06Z
SATURDAY. A VORT MAX ROTATING AROUND THIS UPPER LOW WILL ALSO BE
CROSSING THE AREA AS THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW BEGINS TO SLOWLY
OPEN INTO A POSITIVE TILT TROF AND STARTS TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST. THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY EVENING AND/OR EARLY SATURDAY. DEPENDING ON WHICH
MODEL YOU PICK THERE ARE VARIOUS VALUES OF 700MB OMEGA UPWARD MOTION
OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. CAPES FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY ARE AROUND 3000 J/KG WITH 500MB LIFTED INDICES RANGING FROM
MINUS 8 TO MINUS 12. PRECIPITABLE WATERS ARE ALSO AROUND 1 INCH. THE
TIMING OF THE  FRONTAL PASSAGE AND VORT MAX ALOFT WILL INFLUENCE THE
POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER. IF THEY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
LATE EVENING...DAYTIME HEATING WOULD ENHANCE STORM STRENGTH. IF THE
PASSAGE IS AFTER DARK...STORM STRENGTH MAY BE LOWER. THE TIMING OF
THE VORT MAX/FRONTAL PASSAGE ARE UNCERTAIN BUT THERE IS STILL MORE
THAN AMPLE UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND HIGH ENOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATERS
TO KEEP THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN.

SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY....THERE IS STILL A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON
SATURDAY. THE GOOD NEWS IS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN
PRODUCING OUR EXTENDED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER FINALLY MOVES EAST OVER
THE GREAT LAKES. DRIER, COOLER, AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL MOVE INTO
THE MIDWEST AS THE UPPER FLOW SWITCHES TO THE NORTHWEST AND COOL HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS RETURNS TO THE REGION FROM WEDNESDAY
TROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS CONSENSUS MODELS PROG ANOTHER SYSTEM
TO APPROACH THE MIDWEST. ..KUHL..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE SEEN THROUGH 00Z/31.
KBRL IS AT RISK FOR WINDS OVER 40 KNOTS...WITH KCID/KMLI AT A LOWER
RISK. CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION WITH IFR
CONDITIONS WITH CONVECTION. A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
SEEN AFT 00Z/31 IN THE POST CONVECTIVE RAIN. A LULL IS THEN EXPECTED
AFT 06Z/31 BEFORE THE NEXT TSRA COMPLEX ARRIVES IN EASTERN IOWA AND
NORTHERN ILLINOIS AFT 12Z/31.                ..08..

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

EXTREMELY HEAVY RAIN FELL ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST IOWA LAST
EVENING. THIS RAINFALL HAS RESULTED IN SIGNIFICANT UPWARD
REVISIONS TO RIVER FORECASTS FOR THE WAPSI...CEDAR...IOWA...AND
MAQUOKETA BASINS. RAINFALL TODAY HAS BEEN LESS THAN EXPECTED AND
RAINFALL TONIGHT SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT. MORE RAIN...POSSIBLY
HEAVY...IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING.

DUE TO THE SATURATED STATE OF THE GROUND...RIVERS ARE QUITE
SENSITIVE TO ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. THE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR
ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.   ..08..

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-
     CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DES MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-IOWA-
     JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LEE-LINN-LOUISA-
     MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-
     HANCOCK-HENDERSON-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-
     PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-WARREN-WHITESIDE.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.

&&

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...KUHL
AVIATION...08
HYDROLOGY...08

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1157 AM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-311000-
BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-BENTON-LINN-JONES-JACKSON-IOWA-JOHNSON-
CEDAR-CLINTON-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-KEOKUK-WASHINGTON-LOUISA-JEFFERSON-
HENRY IA-DES MOINES-VAN BUREN-LEE-JO DAVIESS-STEPHENSON-CARROLL-
WHITESIDE-ROCK ISLAND-HENRY IL-BUREAU-PUTNAM-MERCER-HENDERSON-
WARREN-HANCOCK-MCDONOUGH-SCOTLAND-CLARK-
1157 AM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST
CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

MORE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN
BY LATE THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI. SINCE THE GROUND IS NEARLY SATURATED THE ADDITIONAL RAINS
COULD RESULT IN MORE FLASH FLOODING. THE RAINS WILL ALSO CAUSE
ADDITIONAL RISES ON AREA RIVERS. SOME OF THESE RIVERS ARE ALREADY
EXPERIENCING SIGNIFICANT FLOODING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST FLOOD
STATEMENTS AND FLOOD WARNINGS FOR DETAILS.

THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO POSE A THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. THERE IS A LOW THREAT OF AN ISOLATED
TORNADO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA
WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING. A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...AND THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A SLIGHT RISK
FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND...ALTHOUGH A FEW SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.

THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY. CONDITIONS DO NOT
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT
EXPECTED.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. IT IS TOO
SOON TO DETERMINE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

DLF/SHEETS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
423 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0340 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MOUNT PLEASANT          40.96N 91.55W
05/30/2013                   HENRY              IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LARGE TREE LIMB APPROX 10 INCH IN DIAMETER WITH SEVERAL
            TREE LIMBS DOWN IN TOWN. ADDRESS 300 S LOCUST ST.

&&

GROSS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
425 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BURLINGTON              40.81N 91.12W
05/30/2013                   DES MOINES         IA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EXTREME STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS DOWNED NUMEROUS TREES AND
            BENT OVER STREET SIGNS. ALSO...STEEL FRAME BUILDING NEAR
            SPIRIT HOLLOW BLOWN DOWN.

&&

DMD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
427 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0421 PM     TSTM WND GST     IOWA CITY MUNICIPAL AIR 41.63N 91.55W
05/30/2013  M57 MPH          JOHNSON            IA   ASOS

&&

GROSS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
428 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0345 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 ENE FORT MADISON      40.63N 91.33W
05/30/2013                   LEE                IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            POWER LINES DOWN IN FORT MADISON. SOME POWER POLES ON
            FIRE. TIME ESTIMATED.

&&

LE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
432 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0250 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MEMPHIS                 40.46N 92.17W
05/30/2013                   SCOTLAND           MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HEAVY TREE DAMAGE THROUGHOUT COUNTY WITH SEVERAL DAMAGED
            OUTBUILDINGS AND APPROX 30 POWER POLES SNAPPED. TREE
            DAMAGE IS MAINLY LOCATED TO BIBLE GROVE TO MEMPHIS...TIME
            ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

GROSS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
436 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0436 PM     HAIL             2 NNW LENA              42.41N 89.84W
05/30/2013  E0.25 INCH       STEPHENSON         IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

GROSS