Severe Thunderstorm Warning 129, NWS Quad Cities, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
546 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

AT 3 AM....A DEEP TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD THIS MORNING
WITH A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHWEST MISSOURI WITH A
DEVELOPING WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD ALONG THE IOWA...MISSOURI
BORDER. NORTH OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S
WHILE TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD
ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING AND STRONG WINDS DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT BUT DIFFERENCES
IN MESOSCALE FEATURES WILL PLAY A MAJOR ROLE IN SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL FOR THIS MORNING.

A LOT TO TALK ABOUT THIS MORNING WITH THE SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. THE FIRST
AND MOST IMPORTANT WILL BE THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER DAY 1 OUTLOOK HAS MOST OF MY
CWA IN SLIGHT RISK WITH MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR
EASTERN MERCER...BUREAU...AND PUTNAM COUNTIES IN ILLINOIS. A VERY
POWERFUL AND DYNAMIC 500 HPA NEGATIVELY TILED TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON AS A DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW LIFTS FROM NORTHWEST MISSOURI ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN
IOWA AND INTO WESTERN LAKE MICHIGAN BY 00 UTC ON MONDAY. AS THE
SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...A WARM FRONT WILL
SURGE NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SPREAD A WARM
AND HUMID AIRMASS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. MOST UNSTABLE AND 0
TO 1 KM MIXED LAYER CAPE WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG
THIS MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. AN IMPRESSIVE 0 TO 6 KM
BULK SHEAR VECTOR 65 TO 70 KNOTS WILL MEAN THAT STORMS WILL BE VERY
FAST MOVING. IN ADDITION TO THESE PARAMETERS HELICITY WILL BE IN THE
200 TO 300 M2/S2 RANGE SO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BE SEVERE WITH A TORNADO OR TWO. HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
BECOME WELL MIXED. THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL COME TO AN END
BY 21 UTC AT THE LATEST AS THE INGREDIENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS SHIFT
EASTWARD. THE MAIN THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG AND
TO THE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

THE SURFACE LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING. THE COLD FRONT WILL ALONG A LINE FROM
INDEPENDENCE TO FAIRFIELD TO KIRKSVILLE MO BY 15 UTC AND MOVE TO
ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER BY 18 UTC AND THEN EXIT INTO CENTRAL
ILLINOIS BY 21 UTC. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
BY THE FRONT SO HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY ACROSS THE WEST WILL BE IN
THE MORNING WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. AS THE STRENGTHENING
SURFACE LOW MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST A VERY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF MY CWA WITH VERY STRONG WINDS
DEVELOPING FROM 18 UTC THROUGH 00 UTC. WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED AT 25
TO 35 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS AS HIGH AS 55 MPH FOR A 2 TO 3 HOUR WINDOW
THIS AFTERNOON. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE FROM 16 TO 00 UTC
FOR THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF MY CWA. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 20 TO 30
MPH THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD THROUGH 12 UTC MONDAY AND THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES.

NOTICEABLY COOLER AND AIR WILL FLOOD SOUTHWARD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO UPPER
30S ACROSS THE REGION BY 12 UTC MONDAY AS RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE
REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND UPPER
MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL WITH DAYTIME HIGHS RANGING IN THE
40S. MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLD WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE
MID 20S UNDER THE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE 30S ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE CONUS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
THIS FLOW WILL CROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY BRINGING WITH IT A CHANCE OF RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S WITH
LOWS IN THE MID 30S. ON FRIDAY THE LONG RANGE MODELS GENERATE
ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE THAT WILL TRACK EAST ALONG THE UNITED
STATES CANADIAN BORDER. THE BEST DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
TO THE NORTH BUT A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSAGE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM COULD BRING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY.
SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN
BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST ..KUHL..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 531 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

A VERY CHALLENGING AVIATION FORECASTS FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS.
A STRONG DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST
ILLINOIS THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. EXPECT WIDESPERAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING AT KCID AND KDBQ WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AT KMLI AND KBRL. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
IN RAIN WILL BE MVFR IN RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS. CEILINGS MAY LOWER
TO IFR IN HEAVIER RAIN ESPECIALLY AT KDBQ BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH IN THIS OCCURRING. VISIBILITIES WILL BE MAINLY MVFR IN RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY 18
UTC DRASTICALLY REDUCING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AND ALLOW CEILINGS TO LIFT TO VFR IN ITS WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH CEILINGS
LIFTING TO AROUND 5KFT. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO WEST BEHIND
THE FRONT. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS AT KMLI AND KBRL
THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 KNOTS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH BY 00 UTC ACROSS THE REGION AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
     FOR DES MOINES-LEE-SCOTT.

IL...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
     FOR BUREAU-HANCOCK-HENDERSON-HENRY IL-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-
     PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-WARREN-WHITESIDE.

MO...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
     FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.

&&

SYNOPSIS...COUSINS
SHORT TERM...COUSINS
LONG TERM...KUHL
AVIATION...COUSINS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
927 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-181530-
BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-BENTON-LINN-JONES-JACKSON-IOWA-JOHNSON-
CEDAR-CLINTON-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-KEOKUK-WASHINGTON-LOUISA-JEFFERSON-
HENRY IA-DES MOINES-VAN BUREN-LEE-JO DAVIESS-STEPHENSON-CARROLL-
WHITESIDE-ROCK ISLAND-HENRY IL-BUREAU-PUTNAM-MERCER-HENDERSON-
WARREN-HANCOCK-MCDONOUGH-SCOTLAND-CLARK-
927 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST
CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
WHILE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NEARLY THE ENTIRE
AREA...THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY ALONG
AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THE STRONGEST STORMS. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS
SITUATION...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FAST MOVING AND LONGER LIVED TORNADOES.

BY MID MORNING WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS OF
45 TO 55 MPH CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE QUAD CITIES.

THE THREAT FOR STORMS WILL DIMINISH AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THE WIND WILL
SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO WEST WITH THE FRONT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY EARLY THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

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