Severe Thunderstorm Warning 119, NWS Quad Cities, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
326 PM CDT THU SEP 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT THU SEP 19 2013

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS A PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE RUNNING FROM MEXICO
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE MID AND UPPER TEENS
AT 850MB. A LLJ RAN FROM WEST TEXAS TO LAKE MICHIGAN WHILE AN 850MB
COLD FRONT RAN FROM NORTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAD THE MAIN COLD FRONT FROM WESTERN MINNESOTA INTO
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SEVERAL WEAK LOWS RAN FROM
THE PANHANDLE OF OKLAHOMA TO NEAR KDLH ALONG A SECONDARY BOUNDARY.
DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 60S WITH POCKETS OF LOW 70S ACROSS THE
MIDWEST. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...DEW POINTS DROPPED OFF INTO THE 40S
AND 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT THU SEP 19 2013

CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE
THROUGH SUNSET ACROSS IOWA. SOME OF THE STRONGER INITIAL STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WINDS UP TO 40 MPH. THE RISK
OF SEVERE STORMS IS LOW AND WOULD ONLY BE A THREAT THROUGH SUNSET.

AFTER SUNSET...RAIN WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE CWFA WITH
HEAVY RAIN LIKELY UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
GENERAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.75 TO 1.20 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. THERE
WILL BE BANDS OF RAINFALL THAT WILL PROBABLY EXCEED 1.5 INCHES WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS OVER 2 INCHES POSSIBLE.

RAIN WILL END OVER THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE CWFA LATE TONIGHT ONCE
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

FRIDAY...RAIN WILL END OVER THE SOUTHEAST TWO THIRDS OF THE CWFA
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MORNING. BREEZY...COOLER...AND LESS
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING
SKIES.                              ..08..

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT THU SEP 19 2013

PLEASANT EARLY FALL WEATHER AFTER TONIGHT.

OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION AVERAGE WITH BL TEMPERATURES
TOO HIGH AND RH VALUES OVERALL A BIT TOO DRY. VERIFICATION AND RUN TO
RUN CONTINUITY ARE GOOD WITH TIGHT INTER-SOLUTION SPREADS. A 60/40 MIX
OF HI-RES ECMWF AND GFS IS PREFERRED WHICH HAS ONLY MINOR IMPACTS...MAINLY
ON LOW POPS TUESDAY. LOW HUMIDITY...LIGHT WINDS AND MILD TEMPERATURES
TO MAKE FOR NICE OUTDOOR WEATHER THIS WEEKEND INTO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...NEARLY PERFECT WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS...MOSTLY
CLEAR TO CLEAR SKIES AND MODERATE HUMIDITIES. LOWS MAY NEED TRIMMING
A FEW DEGREES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AM BUT NOT ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY FROST
CONCERNS. MINS MOSTLY IN THE 40S WITH HIGHS UPPER 60S TO THE MIDDLE
70S.

TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SPRINKLES POSSIBLE OR A LOW CHANCE
OF A LIGHT SHOWER WITH PASSING WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. ANY RAIN
AMOUNTS TO BE VERY LIGHT. TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL WITH LOWS
IN THE 50S AND HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WARMING TREND AND STILL FAIR AS SOUTH WINDS
INCREASE WITH HIGHS UPPER 70S TO MIDDLE 80S AND LOWS UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S. DEEP TROUGH AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER MID ATLANTIC A VERY FAVORABLE
SET UP WITH OPEN GULF AND CONTINUED STRONG SW MONSOON PATTERN FOR ANOTHER
GOOD RAIN EVENT LATE NEXT WEEK WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT THU SEP 19 2013

VFR WX IS EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z/20 WITH AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPING. AFT 00Z/20 CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE
FAIRLY QUICKLY TO MVFR AND THEN IFR WITH TSRA EXPECTED. A VERY
BRIEF PERIOD OF LIFR COULD OCCUR IF A STRONG TSRA IMPACTS A TAF
SITE. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
PRIOR TO SUNRISE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.                        ..08..

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT THU SEP 19 2013

RECORD HIGHS FOR SEPTEMBER 19...

MOLINE.........93 IN 1948
CEDAR RAPIDS...98 IN 1925
DUBUQUE........94 IN 1948
BURLINGTON.....94 IN 1948

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...08
CLIMATE...05

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
451 AM CDT THU SEP 19 2013

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-201000-
BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-BENTON-LINN-JONES-JACKSON-IOWA-JOHNSON-
CEDAR-CLINTON-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-KEOKUK-WASHINGTON-LOUISA-JEFFERSON-
HENRY IA-DES MOINES-VAN BUREN-LEE-JO DAVIESS-STEPHENSON-CARROLL-
WHITESIDE-ROCK ISLAND-HENRY IL-BUREAU-PUTNAM-MERCER-HENDERSON-
WARREN-HANCOCK-MCDONOUGH-SCOTLAND-CLARK-
451 AM CDT THU SEP 19 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST
CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOUND THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY
OVER NORTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS. LIGHTNING IS THE MAIN
HAZARD WITH THESE STORMS. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY
THE STORMS.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE
OUTLOOK AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WEST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. DAMAGING WINDS AROUND 60 MPH WOULD BE
THE PRIMARY THREAT...FOLLOWED BY HAIL TO AROUND ONE INCH IN
DIAMETER. IN ADDITION...THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL EXISTS
WITH 1 TO 2 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

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