Severe Thunderstorm Warning 112, NWS Quad Cities, IA

222 
WWUS53 KDVN 070107
SVSDVN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
807 PM CDT TUE AUG 6 2013

IAC087-101-183-070130-
/O.CON.KDVN.SV.W.0112.000000T0000Z-130807T0130Z/
WASHINGTON IA-JEFFERSON IA-HENRY IA-
807 PM CDT TUE AUG 6 2013

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN
HENRY...NORTHEASTERN JEFFERSON AND SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES
UNTIL 830 PM CDT...

AT 802 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR LOCKRIDGE...
AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

HAZARD...QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...SPOTTERS REPORTED QUARTER SIZED HAIL AT 748 PM CDT 5 NE OF
         FAIRFIELD.

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO
         ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ROME...COPPOCK...WAYLAND...OLDS...CRAWFORDSVILLE...WINFIELD...
MERRIMAC...TRENTON...SWEDESBURG AND NOBLE.

OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE MAC COON ACCESS PARK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4128 9154 4119 9148 4117 9148 4116 9146
      4106 9139 4095 9174 4112 9185
TIME...MOT...LOC 0105Z 243DEG 14KT 4106 9174

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

NICHOLS

334 
WWUS53 KDVN 070121
SVSDVN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
821 PM CDT TUE AUG 6 2013

IAC087-101-183-070131-
/O.EXP.KDVN.SV.W.0112.000000T0000Z-130807T0130Z/
WASHINGTON IA-JEFFERSON IA-HENRY IA-
821 PM CDT TUE AUG 6 2013

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN HENRY...NORTHEASTERN
JEFFERSON AND SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 830 PM
CDT...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED AND MOVED OUT OF
THE WARNED AREA.  HOWEVER...HEAVY RAIN IS STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS
THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 4128 9154 4119 9148 4117 9148 4116 9146
      4106 9139 4095 9174 4112 9185
TIME...MOT...LOC 0121Z 243DEG 14KT 4109 9167

$$

NICHOLS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
649 PM CDT TUE AUG 6 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT TUE AUG 6 2013

WARM TO VERY WARM AND VERY HUMID CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVER THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WIDESPREAD TEMPS IN THE 80S AND DEWPTS
AROUND 70F/L70S. A COMPACT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS PASSING
QUICKLY THROUGH SOUTHEAST IA ATTIM...BUT NOT MUCH IN WAY OF PCPN
DUE TO PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION PER 19Z RAOB.
SURFACE LOW WAS ANALYZED INTO WESTERN MN AT 18Z WITH PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH INTO WESTERN IA AND A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS FURTHER NORTHWEST
WITH THE MAIN COLD FRONT SLIPPING INTO NORTHERN SD. UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS SHOWS 100+ KT JET STREAK EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TO GREAT LAKES...WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES IN WEST/NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT TUE AUG 6 2013

PCPN CHCS/TIMING/SEVERE THREAT TONIGHT MAIN CHALLENGES.

ISOLD SHOWER/STORM POSSIBLE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH PASSAGE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THEN APPEARS START TO THIS EVE MAY BE
FAIRLY QUIET GIVEN PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION AND
ABSENCE OF FORCING WITH MAIN FORCING AND FOCUS FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT SHIFTS BACK TO NORTH/WEST ATTENDANT TO SURFACE COLD
FRONT... DIVERGENCE FROM UPPER JET AND SHEARING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE SLIDING EWD FROM SD. IN TIME...LATER THIS EVE AND
OVERNIGHT RAIN CHCS WILL BE INCREASING AS FORCING WITH DIVERGENCE
FROM RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 500 MB 50+ JET AND 100+ KT 250 MB
JET...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE...MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND FRONT ALL
INTERACT WITH DEEP MOISTURE WITH SURFACE DEWPTS AROUND 70/70S
AND PWATS NEARING 2 INCHES. SUFFICIENT SHEAR WITH BULK SHEAR 0-6KM
OF 30-40 KTS AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES OF AROUND 2500
J/KG SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING BUT ALSO
POSSIBLY INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINING MIXED WITH
POTENTIAL OF SOME BOWING SEGMENTS AND STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS...
AND SECONDARY THREAT HAIL. VERY HEAVY RAIN OF 1-2 INCHES ALSO
POSSIBLE GIVEN DEEP MOISTURE.

COLD FRONT TO PASS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MID AM WED TAKING PCPN CHCS
WITH IT. DRIER AIR WILL BE GRADUALLY FILTERING IN ON NORTHWEST
WINDS THAT COULD BE GUSTY AT TIMES. STILL DEWPTS IN 60S MOST OF THE
AREA DURING THE DAY BUT NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD MAKE IT FEEL
PRETTY COMFORTABLE. COOLEST HIGHS IN THE NORTHWEST CWA WHERE
SOME 70S ARE LIKELY WHILE MID 80S FAR SOUTHEAST WITH FEW WARM SITES
POSSIBLY IN THE UPPER 80S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT TUE AUG 6 2013

FORECAST FOCUS ON THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERIC STABLE 4 WAVE PATTERN
LOCKED IN FOR MOST OF THIS MONTH. POLAR VORTEX WILL REMAIN ANCHORED
IN PLACE BY STRENGTHENING ATLANTIC BLOCK. THIS WILL KEEP THE MIDWEST
IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE ECMWF
INDICATES THE BULK OF THE MCS ACTIVITY TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE DVN
CWA FOR THE NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT THAT DROPS ACROSS
THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO STALL IN MO
AND WE WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR STORMS IN OUR SOUTHERN CWA.
HOWEVER...THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF RUNS KEEP THE FRONT FAR ENOUGH TO OUR
SOUTH AND ARE ESSENTIALLY DRY. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO ADJUST POPS.

THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF
ARE INDICATING A DRY AND COOL WEEKEND WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE MIDWEST. THIS IS THEN FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ONE
EARLY NEXT WEEK. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS
DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 40S AT SOME LOCATIONS. THIS IS COOLER THAN
THE CURRENT ALL BLEND AND LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO ADJUST.

HAASE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT TUE AUG 6 2013

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS ALL THE
TERMINALS BETWEEN 07/00-07-06Z. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL PRODUCE
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH POTENTIAL SHORT PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS.
GUSTY WINDS OVER 40 MPH ALSO POSSIBLE. SKIES TO CLEAR BY MID
MORNING AS COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE AREA WITH NW WINDS OF 5 TO
15 MPH.

NICHOLS

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...NICHOLS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
352 PM CDT TUE AUG 6 2013

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-071015-
BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-BENTON-LINN-JONES-JACKSON-IOWA-JOHNSON-
CEDAR-CLINTON-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-KEOKUK-WASHINGTON-LOUISA-JEFFERSON-
HENRY IA-DES MOINES-VAN BUREN-LEE-JO DAVIESS-STEPHENSON-CARROLL-
WHITESIDE-ROCK ISLAND-HENRY IL-BUREAU-PUTNAM-MERCER-HENDERSON-
WARREN-HANCOCK-MCDONOUGH-SCOTLAND-CLARK-
352 PM CDT TUE AUG 6 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST
CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND BECOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE
WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
MUCH OF THE OUTLOOK AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING MAINLY
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS LOW AT
THIS TIME. THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH
THESE SUNDAY STORMS AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
706 PM CDT TUE AUG 6 2013

IAZ063-064-076-077-087-088-098-099-070200-
IOWA-JOHNSON-KEOKUK-WASHINGTON-JEFFERSON-HENRY IA-VAN BUREN-LEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MARENGO...IOWA CITY...SIGOURNEY...
WASHINGTON...FAIRFIELD...MOUNT PLEASANT...KEOSAUQUA....
FORT MADISON
706 PM CDT TUE AUG 6 2013

...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THROUGH 9 PM...

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS IOWA AND ARE MOVING
SLOWLY EAST AT 15 TO 20 MPH. MOST LOCATIONS WILL STAY DRY THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE
AND PENNIES AND GUSTY WINDS TO OVER 40 MPH. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
RATES ARE POSSIBLE IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES AN HOUR THAT MAY PRODUCE
PONDING OF WATER.

NICHOLS