River Flood Warning 99, NWS Quad Cities, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
635 PM CDT SUN MAY 26 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SUN MAY 26 2013

LOW PRESSURE IN WESTERN SD HAS A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING INTO
EASTERN MO. NORTH OF THE FRONT CURRENT TEMPERATURES WERE ONLY IN
THE 50S FROM EASTERN IA INTO SOUTHERN MN ALONG WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE COOL AIR. TRAINING OF STORMS ALREADY
OCCURRING IN CENTRAL IA AND SPREADING INTO THE DVN CWA. SOUTH OF
THE FRONT TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 80S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S.
READINGS WERE IN THE 90S IN WESTERN KS INTO WESTERN TX.

SO FAR THIS WEEKEND RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE RANGED FROM 1 TO 4
INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN IA...NORTHEAST MO AND WESTERN IL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SUN MAY 26 2013

HEADLINES...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE CWA EXCEPT
NW IL THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY.

TONIGHT...ONGOING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BE DUE
A LOW LEVEL JET FROM THE SOUTHWEST INCREASING TO 40-45 KNOTS.
STRONG SPEED CONVERGENCE NOTED LATER TONIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATERS
ALSO INCREASE TO OVER 1.60 INCHES WHICH IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR
LATE MAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL IN THUNDERSTORMS AND
ANY REPEATING (TRAINING) THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SAME AREA WILL
PRODUCE SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL. THIS MAY CAUSE FLASH FLOODING
AND SIGNIFICANT RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. CAMPERS NEAR
FLOOD PRONE AREAS WILL NEED TO REMAIN ALERT. NOT EXPECTING SEVERE
WEATHER DUE TO THE DEEP SATURATED COLUMN BUT PEA SIZE HAIL AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING MAY OCCUR IN THE STRONGER
STORMS. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S.

MEMORIAL DAY...THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CWA THROUGH THE MORNING WITH SOME MODELS SUGGESTING AT LEAST
SCATTERED STORMS CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. PRECIPITABLE
WATERS OF OVER 1.70 INCHES WILL PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WITH
THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING. ONCE AGAIN DUE TO THE HOLIDAY
EVERYONE SHOULD REMAIN ALERT ESPECIALLY CAMPERS NEAR FLOOD PRONE AREAS.
TEMPERATURES THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAVE REMAINED MUCH COOLER
THAN THE MODELS HAVE SUGGESTED AS RAINFALL DURING THE DAY HAS KEPT
THE BOUNDARY STUCK IN MO EVEN THOUGH THE MODELS WANT TO PUSH IT NORTHWARD.
HOWEVER WE SHOULD HAVE A SOUTHEAST WIND SO IT SHOULD BE WARMER SO
WILL HAVE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S NORTH TO MID 70S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SUN MAY 26 2013

VERY ACTIVE PATTERN WITH HEAVY RAIN THREAT ALONG WITH INCREASING
RISK FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN MO SHOULD
SLOWLY MAKE NORTHWARD PROGRESS ACROSS THE CWA. REPEATED ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE WITH DECENT LOW LEVEL JET
IMPINGING ON THE FRONT. THIS WILL INCREASE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT
EVEN MORE ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT TO MAJOR RIVER FLOODING BECOMING
MORE LIKELY. STRONGER MID LEVEL WINDS ARRIVE ON TUESDAY AND WITH
THE WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS THE CWA SEVERE WEATHER MAY INCREASE
ALSO ON TUESDAY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR ESPECIALLY NEAR THE FRONT MAY
SPIN UP ISOLATED TORNADOES OTHERWISE THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. MUCH OF THE DVN CWA IS IN A SLIGHT RISK.
HIGHS ON TUESDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 80S.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...TROUGH OUT WEST REALLY SHARPENS ON
WEDNESDAY ALLOWING FOR A STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW PUSHING THE WARM
FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH. WE WILL THEN BE IN THE VERY WARM BREEZY
AND JUICY AIRMASS BUT IT WILL ALSO BE CAPPED. HIGHS WILL BE WELL
INTO THE 80S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

MAJOR TROUGH SLOWLY PUSHES EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS/MIDWEST WITH
MODERATE TO STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AS MID LEVEL WINDS INCREASE TO
60 KNOTS. COLDER AIR ALOFT/LARGE SCALE ASCENT/STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
ALL POINT TO A VERY ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER/HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER...POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT
CAN BE EXPECTED. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
FINALLY PUSH TO OUR EAST BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT SUN MAY 26 2013

SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...EACH CARRYING THE THREAT OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...AS WELL
AS LOW CIGS AND VISIBILITY. THE TIMING OF THESE APPEAR AS
SUCH...THE FIRST SHOULD GRADUALLY END EARLY THIS EVENING OVER
EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS AS CONVECTION DROPS SOUTHEAST.
OVERNIGHT...ANOTHER STORM COMPLEX MAY FORM IN CENTRAL IOWA AND
MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST AFFECTING ALL TAF SITES BY 08Z THROUGH 15Z.
THIS TREND WILL BE WATCHED FOR FUTURE UPDATES TO INTRODUCE MORE
THUNDER IN THE TAFS. DISSIPATING STORMS AND SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED ON AN OFF MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY WIDESPREAD HEAVY
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS EXTREME
CHALLENGING FORECAST IS REPRESENTED BY EXTENDED PERIODS OF MVFR
CIGS AND SHOWERS...WITH SOUTHEASTS. IT IS FAR TOO POOR CONFIDENCE
TO KEEP THUNDER GOING FOR 24 HOURS STRAIGHT IN TAFS...THOUGH THE
THREAT IS NEARLY CONSTANT THAT IS MAY BE POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME.
ERVIN

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SUN MAY 26 2013

HAVE EXPANDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE MUCH OF CWA WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST ILLINOIS. RADAR ESTIMATES
AND RAINFALL REPORTS PAST 24-48 HRS SHOW WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCHES
FROM WEST OF DBQ TO QUAD CITIES TO MACOMB IL... WITH SOME SWATHS
OF 3 TO UPWARDS OF 4.5 INCHES MAINLY FAR WESTERN CWA AND IN
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST IOWA AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. SHORT TERM
CONVECTIVE TRENDS SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION INTO THIS EVENING. POTENTIAL LATER TONIGHT
TO SEE MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS PUSH EAST FROM THE PLAINS ACROSS THE
AREA INTO MONDAY. EACH WAVE OF PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE RISK OF VERY
HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING GIVEN DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
AND REPETITIVE NATURE OF THE ACTIVITY OCCURRING ON ALREADY SATURATED
GROUND. SHORT TERM RIVER OUTLOOK FOCUSES ON IOWA TRIBUTARY RIVERS
AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI FOR FLOODING. DEPENDING ON RAINFALL NEXT
48 HRS COULD SEE FLOODING CATEGORIES RAISED IN SOME AREAS AND ALSO
RIVER FLOODING EXPAND INTO PORTIONS OF ILLINOIS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-
     CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DES MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-IOWA-
     JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LEE-LINN-LOUISA-
     MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR HANCOCK-HENDERSON-
     MCDONOUGH-MERCER-ROCK ISLAND-WARREN.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...ERVIN
HYDROLOGY...05

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
137 PM CDT SUN MAY 26 2013

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-271845-
BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-BENTON-LINN-JONES-JACKSON-IOWA-JOHNSON-
CEDAR-CLINTON-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-KEOKUK-WASHINGTON-LOUISA-JEFFERSON-
HENRY IA-DES MOINES-VAN BUREN-LEE-JO DAVIESS-STEPHENSON-CARROLL-
WHITESIDE-ROCK ISLAND-HENRY IL-BUREAU-PUTNAM-MERCER-HENDERSON-
WARREN-HANCOCK-MCDONOUGH-SCOTLAND-CLARK-
137 PM CDT SUN MAY 26 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST
CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF EASTERN IOWA...
NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND WESTERN ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

REPEATED ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL THAT
MAY CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RISES ON AREA
RIVERS. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.

AREA RIVERS ARE EXPERIENCING FLOODING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST
FLOOD STATEMENTS AND FLOOD WARNINGS FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MEMORIAL DAY FOR MUCH OF THE
OUTLOOK AREA. REPEATED ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY CAUSE FLASH
FLOODING AND LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RISES ON AREA RIVERS.

MUCH OF THE OUTLOOK AREA IS IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY. THE PRIMARY THREATS ARE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE NEAR A NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT.

THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AS A POTENT STORM SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM
THE WEST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER REPORTS OF RAINFALL OF MORE THAN AN INCH AND ANY FLASH
FLOODING THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY WILL BE APPRECIATED.

A CONFERENCE CALL FOR EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATORS WILL BE
CONDUCTED AT 215 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

HAASE

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
823 PM CDT SUN MAY 26 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0820 PM     HEAVY RAIN       NORTH LIBERTY           41.74N 91.61W
05/26/2013  M3.65 INCH       JOHNSON            IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TOTAL SINCE 8 AM SATURDAY MAY 25

&&

ERVIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
832 PM CDT SUN MAY 26 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 PM     FLASH FLOOD      WAPELLO                 41.18N 91.19W
05/26/2013                   LOUISA             IA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            COUNTY REPORTS SEVERAL ROADS CLOSED DUE TO FLASH
            FLOODING...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF LOUISA
            COUNTY. PRIMARY CLOSURES ON PORTIONS OF S AVENUE...10TH
            STREET...F AVENUE...30TH STREET...AND 40TH STREET.

&&

ERVIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
859 PM CDT SUN MAY 26 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0858 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 W CAMBRIDGE           41.30N 90.20W
05/26/2013  M2.00 INCH       HENRY              IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            2 HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL

&&

DC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
913 PM CDT SUN MAY 26 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0911 PM     HEAVY RAIN       MOUNT UNION             41.06N 91.39W
05/26/2013  E4.50 INCH       HENRY              IA   PUBLIC

            STORM TOTAL SINCE THE RAIN BEGAN YESTERDAY. ALSO REPORTED
            STANDING WATER IN THE FIELD AND WATER FLOWING OVER THE
            ROADS.

&&

DC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
916 PM CDT SUN MAY 26 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0915 PM     HEAVY RAIN       4 S BETTENDORF          41.50N 90.49W
05/26/2013  M3.22 INCH       ROCK ISLAND        IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL

&&

DC