River Flood Warning 77, NWS Quad Cities, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
648 AM CDT SAT MAY 4 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT SAT MAY 4 2013

RAIN SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED QUITE A BIT OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS BUT ANOTHER SURGE OF RAIN WAS SPREADING QUICKLY NORTHWEST
OUT OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN IL. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO REDUCE POPS
TO SCATTERED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS THEN GO LIKELY THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY OVER MOST OF THE CWA. REMAINDER OF THE GRIDS
BEGINNING WITH THIS AFTERNOON UNCHANGED FOR NOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SAT MAY 4 2013

LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL LOW LOCATED IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST MO. THE SHOWERS EXTENDED
FROM CENTRAL IL AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE DVN CWA AND WERE MOVING TO
THE NORTHWEST. THE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLIER IN THE EVENING
HAVE PUSHED INTO EXTREME NORTHEAST IA AND SOUTHWEST WI. CURRENT
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOWER 60S IN CENTRAL IL TO THE LOWER 50S
IN OUR EASTERN CWA AND AROUND 40 IN OUR FAR WESTERN CWA. READINGS
IN THE MID 30S WERE COMMON FROM NORTHWEST WI/EASTERN MN TO CENTRAL
IA AND INTO ARKANSAS. OF COURSE THIS IS THE AREA THAT HAD THE
HISTORIC MAY SNOWSTORM THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SAT MAY 4 2013

FORECAST FOCUS ON SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TEMPERATURES.

TODAY...SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY TODAY AS SPOKES OF ENERGY CONTINUE
TO ROTATE AROUND THE CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO
NORTHERN ARKANSAS. PRECIPITABLE WATERS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 1 INCH SO
MODERATE SHOWERS MAY DUMP AT LEAST ANOTHER 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH AT
MANY LOCATIONS TODAY. HAVE ADDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE GRIDS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE CAPES OF AROUND
200 J/KG WITH TOTAL TOTALS IN THE MID 40S. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S WEST TO MID 60S EAST.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LOW TRACKS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH (AMAZING
CONSIDERING EARLIER IN THE WEEK SOME OF THE MODELS HAD THE LOW
GOING TO DULUTH!). DRIER AIR ON NORTHEAST WINDS FEEDING IN FROM
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES WILL DIMINISH OR BRING AN END TO
THE SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SAT MAY 4 2013

SUNDAY WILL BE THE LAST FULL DAY DEALING WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE
UPPER LOW THAT WILL HAVE PLAGUED THE MIDWEST FOR THE ENTIRE MONTH OF
MAY SO FAR. FOR OUR CWA...NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AT LOW LEVELS SHOULD
HELP DRAW IN SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR...AND LIMIT SHOWERY PCPN TO OUR
SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...WITH COOL AIR STILL ALOFT...A SCATTERED SHOWER
CANNOT BE RULED OUT EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHEAST.  I HAVE GONE SOMEWHAT
MORE CONSERVATIVE ON TEMPERATURES AND MORE PESSIMISTIC ON CLOUD
COVER THAN MODELS GIVEN OUR SATURATED GROUND AND RELATIVE COOL
AIRMASS AT LOW LEVELS. THIS COULD LEAD TO A SIGNIFICANT FOG EVENT
FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN IOWA IN THE NEXT 2 DAYS...AND SHOULD BE
CLOSELY WATCHED TO SEE IF IT IMPACT HERE AS WELL. THIS RESULTS IN
HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...ALL IN ALL A REMARKABLY
PLEASANT DAY ENDING THE RUN OF WET WEATHER.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY APPEARS PLEASANT AND NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. AGAIN ON THESE DAYS...FOG TO OUR WEST
COULD IMPACT OUR CWA...BUT IS MOST LIKELY FARTHER WEST WHERE
CONVERGENCE AND MUCH COOLER SURFACE AIR IS EXPECTED TO BE FOUND.

BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE FLOW AT UPPER LEVELS
BECOME WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY WITH EMBEDDED WAVES AND A GROWING THREAT OF
A CLOSED UPPER LOW COMING OUT TOWARD THURSDAY. WHILE STRONG LOW
LEVEL MOIST ADVECTION IS NOT FORECAST...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND LIFT AROUND TO SUPPORT A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THE 2ND HALF OF THE WEEK. SHOULD THE ECMWF AND UKMET
SOLUTION VERIFY...THIS COULD BE A NOTABLY WET PERIOD ONCE AGAIN.

A STRONG COLD FRONT AFTER FRIDAY IS SHOWN BY THE ECMWF AND GFS 00Z
RUNS...AND SHOULD BE WATCHED FOR A FROST POTENTIAL IF MODEL TRENDS
CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT SAT MAY 4 2013

VFR CIGS BUT IFR VIS AT MOST TAF SITES THIS MORNING WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS. MVFR/OCNL IFR CIGS/VIS IN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. VFR CIGS WITH MVFR VIS IN BR EXPECTED TONIGHT.
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...HAASE
SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...HAASE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
357 AM CDT SAT MAY 4 2013

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-050900-
BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-BENTON-LINN-JONES-JACKSON-IOWA-JOHNSON-
CEDAR-CLINTON-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-KEOKUK-WASHINGTON-LOUISA-JEFFERSON-
HENRY IA-DES MOINES-VAN BUREN-LEE-JO DAVIESS-STEPHENSON-CARROLL-
WHITESIDE-ROCK ISLAND-HENRY IL-BUREAU-PUTNAM-MERCER-HENDERSON-
WARREN-HANCOCK-MCDONOUGH-SCOTLAND-CLARK-
357 AM CDT SAT MAY 4 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST
CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH BRIEF
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING A RISK. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

AREA RIVERS ARE EXPERIENCING FLOODING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST
FLOOD STATEMENTS AND FLOOD WARNINGS FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH
THE MIDWEST. IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE ANY THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAASE/ERVIN

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
942 AM CDT SAT MAY 4 2013

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 ENE ARGYLE LAKE STATE 40.46N 90.75W
05/04/2013  M3.05 INCH       MCDONOUGH          IL   MESONET

            REPORTED AT COCORAHS STATION 5061S HEAVY
            RAIN DURATION 24 HOURS

&&

IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
943 AM CDT SAT MAY 4 2013

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 ENE SAWYER            40.71N 91.33W
05/04/2013  M2.73 INCH       LEE                IA   MESONET

            REPORTED AT COCORAHS STATION 9415B HEAVY
            RAIN DURATION 24 HOURS

&&

IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
944 AM CDT SAT MAY 04 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       MACOMB                  40.47N 90.68W
05/04/2013  M2.62 INCH       MCDONOUGH          IL   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24-HR TOTAL.

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       BURLINGTON REGIONAL AIR 40.78N 91.13W
05/04/2013  M2.76 INCH       DES MOINES         IA   ASOS

            24-HR TOTAL.

0900 AM     HEAVY RAIN       LA HARPE                40.58N 90.97W
05/04/2013  M3.42 INCH       HANCOCK            IL   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24-HR TOTAL.

&&

GROSS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
956 AM CDT SAT MAY 04 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       STRONGHURST             40.75N 90.90W
05/04/2013  M2.56 INCH       HENDERSON          IL   COCORAHS

            24-HR TOTAL.

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       ALEDO                   41.20N 90.75W
05/04/2013  M1.64 INCH       MERCER             IL   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24-HR TOTAL.

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 W ROSEVILLE           40.73N 90.68W
05/04/2013  M2.21 INCH       WARREN             IL   COCORAHS

            24-HR TOTAL.

0900 AM     HEAVY RAIN       ALEXIS                  41.06N 90.57W
05/04/2013  M1.77 INCH       WARREN             IL   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24-HR TOTAL.

&&

GROSS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1003 AM CDT SAT MAY 04 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       KEOSAUQUA               40.73N 91.96W
05/04/2013  M1.33 INCH       VAN BUREN          IA   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24-HR TOTAL.

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       WASHINGTON              41.30N 91.69W
05/04/2013  M1.63 INCH       WASHINGTON         IA   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24-HR TOTAL.

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       WILLIAMSBURG            41.67N 92.01W
05/04/2013  M1.44 INCH       IOWA               IA   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24-HR TOTAL.

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       NORTH ENGLISH           41.52N 92.08W
05/04/2013  M1.62 INCH       IOWA               IA   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24-HR TOTAL.

&&

GROSS