River Flood Warning 154, NWS Quad Cities, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
800 AM CDT TUE JUN 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT TUE JUN 25 2013

ANALYSIS AT 3 AM SHOWS NEXT MCS DEVELOPING LOOSELY ACROSS CENTRAL
PLAINS AND WESTERN IOWA AHEAD OF STRONGER DIGGING UPPER WAVE IN
WESTERN US. ALL NOWCAST TOOLS SUPPORTS MORE CONVECTION WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS AND RISK OF SEVERE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. UPSTREAM ENERGY
STILL SUPPORTS STRONG COOLING TREND AND DRIER AIR KICKING IN LATE
IN THE WEEK WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT TUE JUN 25 2013

TODAY...WESTERN IOWA CONVECTION TO ARRIVE IN WEST AND NW SECTIONS
BEFORE 12Z WITH INDICATIONS OF SOME STRONG STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN. GREATEST PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE MOSTLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 30. HIGHS MAY NEED LOWERING NORTH AGAIN AS LIKE PAST 2
DAYS WITH CLOUDS AND COOL POOLS FROM CONVECTION OUTFLOWS. LOCAL
RAIN TOOLS SUGGEST LIGHT TO MOSTLY MODERATE RAIN AMOUNTS NW 1/3
OR SO WITH ISOLATED SWATHS TO AROUND 1 INCH UNTIL AROUND 21Z WHEN
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES REACHED. SATURATED SOILS MANY LOCATIONS
COULD STILL RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING PER LOCAL REPORTS OF NEAR
FLASH FLOODING PAST HOUR IN STEPHENSON COUNTY FROM RAIN AMOUNTS OF
LESS THAN AN INCH. MAJOR MCS SHOULD START DEVELOPING AROUND OR
AFTER 21Z...PROBABLY VERY ROUGHLY SD/IA/NE BORDER REGION BUT POOR
CONFIDENCE OF INITIATION EVOLUTION AS CURRENT IOWA CONVECTION WILL
IMPACT THIS LATER EVENT.

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO STRONG MCS TO PASS WITH LOCAL TOOLS STILL
SUGGESTING AREAS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN THAT WILL CAUSE MORE
FLASH FLOODING AND HIGH RIVER LEVELS WITH MANY MAJOR RIVER CRESTS
POSSIBLE. LOCATION AND EXTENT UNABLE TO ASSESS FOR ABOVE REASONS
DESCRIBED IN TODAY SECTION. UPPER DIFFLUENCE TOOLS THOUGH DO SUGGEST
MOSTLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH SECTIONS. LOWS ARE LIKELY AGAIN
SEVERAL DEGREES TOO HIGH AS COOL POOLS SHOULD RESULT IN LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S. CONVECTION LIKELY TO MOVE EAST TOWARD DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY. MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE TOOLS SUPPORT A LOW TO MODERATE END
OF SEVERE WEATHER AS WELL WITH STRAIGHT LINE MAIN THREAT OF 60-70 MPH.
ISOLATED HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES AND A BRIEF TORNADO MAY OCCUR WITH ANY
BACKING OF LOW LEVEL WINDS OVERALL LESSER THREATS ATTM.

NICHOLS

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT TUE JUN 25 2013

FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM WAS ON EXITING WEDNESDAY AM MCS.

WE REMAIN IN COOLER CYCLONIC/NW FLOW THROUGH THE ENTIRE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH A CHANCE AT SOME LINGERING PCPN WEDNESDAY  MORNING AS
THE MCS EXITS TO THE EAST.  SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE ACROSS E
CENTRAL IA AND NW IL WITH DAMAGING WINDS OVER 60 MPH AND LARGE
HAIL. WE REMAIN IN COOLER CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH A
DECENT EMBEDDED WAVE SLATED TO COME ACROSS THE AREA SAT.  EXPECT
MAINLY SHOWERY ACTIVITY...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT THUNDER ATTM.  MUCH
COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS AREA EXPECTED...THUS LOWERED TEMPS
AND DEW POINTS THROUGHOUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 759 AM CDT TUE JUN 25 2013

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
INCREASING TODAY AND TONIGHT. BEST CHCS OF STORMS NEXT 6 HOURS
WILL BE OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA INTO NORTHWEST IL MAINLY
IMPACTING KDBQ/CID TERMINALS. SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AM HOURS OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN IA
WITH LOW LEVEL JET. MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION SUGGESTED BY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. HEAVIEST STORMS SHOULD PRODUCE FEW TO
SEVERAL HOURS OF MVFR TO IFR IN STORMS. WINDS MOSTLY AOB LIGHT
SOUTHERLY EXCEPT VARIABLE AND GUSTY WITH STORMS AND OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES.

NICHOLS

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT MON JUN 24 2013

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF 2-6+ INCHES ON SOME OF THE RIVER BASINS
HAS OCCURRED OVER THE PAST 24-48 HRS.  ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS OF 1-3
INCHES IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS...POSSIBLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF I80...SOME OF THE SAME AREAS THAT WERE ALREADY HARD HIT.
RENEWED OR MORE SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN ADDITIONAL RISES ON AREA
RIVERS...BOTH ON SECTIONS OF THE MISSISSIPPI AND INCOMING
TRIBUTARY RIVERS. SEVERAL RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED
AND NEW ONES MAY BE NEEDED OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HRS AS RIVER LEVELS
CONTINUE TO RISE. SEE THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS FOR
UPDATED INFORMATION.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-
     CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-IOWA-JACKSON-JOHNSON-JONES-
     KEOKUK-LINN-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-WASHINGTON.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-
     HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-
     WHITESIDE.

MO...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...NICHOLS
SHORT TERM...NICHOLS
LONG TERM...14/NICHOLS
AVIATION...NICHOLS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
950 AM CDT TUE JUN 25 2013

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-261000-
BENTON IA-BUCHANAN IA-BUREAU IL-CARROLL IL-CEDAR IA-CLARK MO-
CLINTON IA-DELAWARE IA-DES MOINES IA-DUBUQUE IA-HANCOCK IL-
HENDERSON IL-HENRY IA-HENRY IL-IOWA IA-JACKSON IA-JEFFERSON IA-
JO DAVIESS IL-JOHNSON IA-JONES IA-KEOKUK IA-LEE IA-LINN IA-LOUISA IA-
MCDONOUGH IL-MERCER IL-MUSCATINE IA-PUTNAM IL-ROCK ISLAND IL-
SCOTLAND MO-SCOTT IA-STEPHENSON IL-VAN BUREN IA-WARREN IL-
WASHINGTON IA-WHITESIDE IL-
950 AM CDT TUE JUN 25 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST
CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE
OUTLOOK AREA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCHES
WILL BE LIKELY. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH
AND ALSO LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS. AN ISOLATED
TORNADO MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 80 THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FOR
THE ENTIRE AREA.

AREA RIVERS ARE RISING WITH MANY POINTS TO EXPERIENCE MODERATE TO
MAJOR RIVER FLOODING. SEE THE LATEST RIVER PRODUCTS FOR FURTHER
INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE SYSTEM
FOR TONIGHT EXITS THE AREA TO THE EAST.  ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS
OF 60 MPH OR HAIL OVER QUARTER SIZED MAY BE POSSIBLE.

REDEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS AREAS MAINLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.  SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...MOSTLY ACROSS
PARTS OF ILLINOIS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN
THREAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
REPORTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS OVER 1 INCH AND ADDITIONAL WATER
ISSUES WOULD BE APPRECIATED.

14/NICHOLS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
719 AM CDT TUE JUN 25 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0718 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 ESE PEOSTA            42.44N 90.84W
06/25/2013  M1.26 INCH       DUBUQUE            IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

TAS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
727 AM CDT TUE JUN 25 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0726 AM     HEAVY RAIN       6 WSW SCHAPVILLE        42.38N 90.31W
06/25/2013  E1.17 INCH       JO DAVIESS         IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BILLN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
826 AM CDT TUE JUN 25 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 AM     HEAVY RAIN       4 ESE WINSLOW           42.47N 89.72W
06/25/2013  M0.92 INCH       STEPHENSON         IL   COCORAHS

            RAINFALL IN PAST 30 MINUTES

&&

TAS

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