Gale Watch 21, NWS Detroit, MI

269 
WHUS73 KDTX 101759
MWWDTX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1259 PM EST SUN NOV 10 2013

...EPISODIC GALES FOR LAKE HURON THROUGH MIDWEEK...

.GALE FORCE WINDS WILL EXPAND SOUTH ACROSS LAKE HURON THIS MORNING AS 
WINDS VEER TO THE NORTHWEST AND COLD AIR SPILLS INTO THE AREA AND 
INCREASES INSTABILITY OVER THE LAKE. GALE WARNINGS WILL BE IN EFFECT 
FOR THE OPEN WATERS...WHERE WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST TO 35 TO 40 
KNOTS. MEANWHILE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE 
NEARSHORE WATERS...WHERE WIND GUSTS WILL RANGE CLOSER TO 30 KNOTS 
TODAY. 

WHILE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING A RENEWED CHANCE
OF GALES ON MONDAY AS IT SURGES THROUGH THE AREA AND BRINGS THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON TO THE REGION.

LHZ361-110600-
/O.EXP.KDTX.GL.W.0025.000000T0000Z-131110T1800Z/
/O.CON.KDTX.GL.A.0021.131111T0900Z-131112T0900Z/
LAKE HURON FROM 5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LT
BEYOND 5 NM OFF SHORE-
1259 PM EST SUN NOV 10 2013

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE
MONDAY NIGHT...
...GALE WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

THE GALE WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS
  UP TO 21 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS.
  THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 8 FEET WITH A
  POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 11 FEET.

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 12 PM EST SUNDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 12 PM EST SUNDAY. 

A GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE
MONDAY NIGHT. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WATCH...EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS 
  UP TO 27 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 38 KNOTS. 
  THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 8 FEET WITH A 
  POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 11 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 10 AM EST MONDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 11 AM EST MONDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

LHZ421-441-110600-
/O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0025.000000T0000Z-131110T2100Z/
/O.CON.KDTX.GL.A.0021.131111T0900Z-131112T0900Z/
OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER
SAGINAW BAY-PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI-
1259 PM EST SUN NOV 10 2013

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...
...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE
MONDAY NIGHT...

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS
  UP TO 23 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 34 KNOTS.
  THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 7 FEET WITH A
  POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 10 FEET.

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 2 PM EST SUNDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 12 PM EST SUNDAY. 

A GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE
MONDAY NIGHT. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WATCH...EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS 
  UP TO 25 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS. 
  THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 8 FEET WITH A 
  POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 11 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 4 PM EST MONDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 11 PM EST MONDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

LHZ362-363-462-110600-
/O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0025.000000T0000Z-131110T2100Z/
/O.CON.KDTX.GL.A.0021.131111T0900Z-131112T0900Z/
LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON POINT MI BEYOND
5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI BEYOND 5NM OFF
SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
1259 PM EST SUN NOV 10 2013

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...
...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE
MONDAY NIGHT...

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED 
  WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 38 
  KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 12 FEET 
  WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 17 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 12 PM EST SUNDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 12 PM EST SUNDAY. 

A GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE
MONDAY NIGHT. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WATCH...EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS 
  UP TO 30 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 41 KNOTS. 
  THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 10 FEET WITH A 
  POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 14 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 6 PM EST MONDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 6 PM EST MONDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

LHZ463-464-110600-
/O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0025.000000T0000Z-131110T2100Z/
/O.CON.KDTX.GL.A.0021.131111T0900Z-131112T0900Z/
LAKE HURON FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
1259 PM EST SUN NOV 10 2013

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...
...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE
MONDAY NIGHT...

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED 
  WINDS UP TO 27 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 
  KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 10 FEET 
  WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 14 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 12 PM EST SUNDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 12 PM EST SUNDAY. 

A GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE
MONDAY NIGHT. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WATCH...EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS 
  UP TO 27 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 37 KNOTS. 
  THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 10 FEET WITH A 
  POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 14 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 4 PM EST MONDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 7 PM EST MONDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

LCZ460-102100-
/O.CON.KDTX.SC.Y.0084.000000T0000Z-131110T2100Z/
LAKE ST. CLAIR-
1259 PM EST SUN NOV 10 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON. 

* WIND: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS 
  UP TO 18 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 26 KNOTS. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 12 PM EST SUNDAY.

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LEZ444-102100-
/O.CON.KDTX.SC.Y.0084.000000T0000Z-131110T2100Z/
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI-
1259 PM EST SUN NOV 10 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON. 

* WIND: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS 
  UP TO 18 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 23 KNOTS. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 2 PM EST SUNDAY.

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LHZ422-110000-
/O.CON.KDTX.SC.Y.0084.000000T0000Z-131111T0000Z/
INNER SAGINAW BAY SW OF POINT AU GRES TO BAY PORT MI-
1259 PM EST SUN NOV 10 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING. 

* WIND: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS 
  UP TO 24 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 12 PM EST SUNDAY.

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LHZ442-443-110000-
/O.CON.KDTX.SC.Y.0084.000000T0000Z-131111T0000Z/
HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI-PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI-
1259 PM EST SUN NOV 10 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT 
  SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 24 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS 
  UP TO 31 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL 
  BE 6 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 8 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 2 PM EST SUNDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 1 PM EST SUNDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

DG

070 
WHUS73 KDTX 102055
MWWDTX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
355 PM EST SUN NOV 10 2013

...NORTHWEST GALES POSSIBLE AGAIN ON MONDAY...

.NORTHWEST GALES ARE SLOWLY DECREASING THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. WILL ALLOW THE GALE WARNING TO
EXPIRE NOW THAT SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DROPPED TO 25 KNOTS WITH JUST
OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR GALE FORCE. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
HAVE TO BE KEPT INTO THE EVENING THOUGH AS WAVES WILL BE SLOWER TO
SUBSIDE. THE GALE WATCH FOR MONDAY WILL ALSO BE CONTINUED AS
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN IN THE WAKE OF THE NEXT
PASSING COLD FRONT.

GIVEN THE FACT THAT CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A LESS IMPRESSIVE 
AND SHORTER DURATION SURGE OF WIND IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ON 
MONDAY...SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GALE WATCH WILL BE TRIMMED. THE 
OPEN WATERS NORTH OF PORT SANILAC WILL MOST LIKELY STILL RECEIVE AT 
LEAST MARGINAL GALE CONDITIONS FOR HALF OF THE DAY ON MONDAY.

LHZ441-110000-
/O.CAN.KDTX.GL.W.0025.000000T0000Z-131110T2100Z/
/O.EXA.KDTX.SC.Y.0084.000000T0000Z-131111T0000Z/
/O.CAN.KDTX.GL.A.0021.131111T0900Z-131112T0900Z/
PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI-
355 PM EST SUN NOV 10 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...
...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...
...GALE WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT 
  SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 21 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS 
  UP TO 27 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL 
  BE 7 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 10 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 3 PM EST SUNDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 3 PM EST SUNDAY. 

THE GALE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. THE GALE WATCH HAS BEEN
CANCELLED. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LHZ421-102200-
/O.CAN.KDTX.GL.W.0025.000000T0000Z-131110T2100Z/
/O.CAN.KDTX.GL.A.0021.131111T0900Z-131112T0900Z/
OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER
SAGINAW BAY-
355 PM EST SUN NOV 10 2013

...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...
...GALE WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS CANCELLED THE
GALE WARNING. THE GALE WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED. 

$$

LHZ362-363-462-110900-
/O.EXP.KDTX.GL.W.0025.000000T0000Z-131110T2100Z/
/O.EXT.KDTX.GL.A.0021.131111T1200Z-131112T0000Z/
LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON POINT MI BEYOND
5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI BEYOND 5NM OFF
SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
355 PM EST SUN NOV 10 2013

...GALE WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING...
...GALE WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

THE GALE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WATCH...EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS 
  UP TO 29 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 41 KNOTS. 
  THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 10 FEET WITH A 
  POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 14 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 1 PM EST MONDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 6 PM EST MONDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

LHZ464-102200-
/O.EXP.KDTX.GL.W.0025.000000T0000Z-131110T2100Z/
/O.CAN.KDTX.GL.A.0021.131111T0900Z-131112T0900Z/
LAKE HURON FROM PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
355 PM EST SUN NOV 10 2013

...GALE WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...
...GALE WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS CANCELLED THE
GALE WATCH. THE GALE WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON AS WINDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE INTO THIS EVENING.

$$

LHZ463-110900-
/O.EXP.KDTX.GL.W.0025.000000T0000Z-131110T2100Z/
/O.EXT.KDTX.GL.A.0021.131111T1200Z-131112T0000Z/
LAKE HURON FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
355 PM EST SUN NOV 10 2013

...GALE WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING...
...GALE WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

THE GALE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING.

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WATCH...EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS
  UP TO 26 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS.
  THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 10 FEET WITH A
  POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 14 FEET.

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 3 PM EST MONDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 6 PM EST MONDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

LHZ422-102200-
/O.CAN.KDTX.SC.Y.0084.000000T0000Z-131111T0000Z/
INNER SAGINAW BAY SW OF POINT AU GRES TO BAY PORT MI-
355 PM EST SUN NOV 10 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS CANCELLED THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. 

$$

LCZ460-102200-
/O.EXP.KDTX.SC.Y.0084.000000T0000Z-131110T2100Z/
LAKE ST. CLAIR-
355 PM EST SUN NOV 10 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON. 

$$

LEZ444-102200-
/O.EXP.KDTX.SC.Y.0084.000000T0000Z-131110T2100Z/
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI-
355 PM EST SUN NOV 10 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON. 

$$

LHZ442-443-110000-
/O.CON.KDTX.SC.Y.0084.000000T0000Z-131111T0000Z/
HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI-PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI-
355 PM EST SUN NOV 10 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT 
  SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 22 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS 
  UP TO 27 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL 
  BE 6 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 8 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 3 PM EST SUNDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 3 PM EST SUNDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LHZ361-110900-
/O.EXT.KDTX.GL.A.0021.131111T1200Z-131112T0000Z/
LAKE HURON FROM 5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LT
BEYOND 5 NM OFF SHORE-
355 PM EST SUN NOV 10 2013

...GALE WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING...

THE GALE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WATCH...EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS 
  UP TO 27 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 37 KNOTS. 
  THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 8 FEET WITH A 
  POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 11 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 1 PM EST MONDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 11 AM EST MONDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

DG

528 
WHUS73 KDTX 110246
MWWDTX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
946 PM EST SUN NOV 10 2013

...GALES EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP ON MONDAY...

.AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. ARCTIC
AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL BOOST MIXING DEPTHS AND WILL LEAD TO
GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 

LHZ361-111445-
/O.UPG.KDTX.GL.A.0021.131111T1200Z-131112T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KDTX.GL.W.0026.131111T1400Z-131111T2100Z/
LAKE HURON FROM 5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LT
BEYOND 5 NM OFF SHORE-
946 PM EST SUN NOV 10 2013

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 4 PM EST MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A GALE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 4 PM EST MONDAY. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED 
  WINDS UP TO 26 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 34 
  KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 8 FEET 
  WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 11 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 10 AM EST MONDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 11 AM EST MONDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LHZ362-111445-
/O.UPG.KDTX.GL.A.0021.131111T1200Z-131112T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KDTX.GL.W.0026.131111T1400Z-131112T0200Z/
LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON POINT MI BEYOND
5NM OFF SHORE-
946 PM EST SUN NOV 10 2013

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM EST MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A GALE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM EST MONDAY. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED 
  WINDS UP TO 28 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 37 
  KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 10 FEET 
  WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 14 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 1 PM EST MONDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 7 PM EST MONDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LHZ363-462-463-111445-
/O.UPG.KDTX.GL.A.0021.131111T1200Z-131112T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KDTX.GL.W.0026.131111T1600Z-131112T0200Z/
LAKE HURON FROM STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI BEYOND 5NM OFF
SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
946 PM EST SUN NOV 10 2013

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM EST MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A GALE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM EST MONDAY. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED 
  WINDS UP TO 28 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 37 
  KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 10 FEET 
  WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 14 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 1 PM EST MONDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 6 PM EST MONDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LHZ422-111445-
/O.NEW.KDTX.SC.Y.0085.131111T1200Z-131112T0200Z/
INNER SAGINAW BAY SW OF POINT AU GRES TO BAY PORT MI-
946 PM EST SUN NOV 10 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 9 PM EST MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 9 PM EST
MONDAY. 

* WIND: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS 
  UP TO 22 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 29 KNOTS. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 4 PM EST MONDAY.

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LHZ421-111445-
/O.NEW.KDTX.SC.Y.0085.131111T1200Z-131112T1200Z/
OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER
SAGINAW BAY-
946 PM EST SUN NOV 10 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST
TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO
7 AM EST TUESDAY. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT 
  SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 23 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS 
  UP TO 30 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL 
  BE 7 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 10 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 7 AM EST MONDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 11 PM EST MONDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LHZ441>443-111445-
/O.NEW.KDTX.SC.Y.0085.131111T1200Z-131113T0000Z/
PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI-HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI-
PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI-
946 PM EST SUN NOV 10 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST
TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO
7 PM EST TUESDAY. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT 
  SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 25 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS 
  UP TO 32 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL 
  BE 8 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 11 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 3 PM EST MONDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 11 PM EST MONDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
341 AM EST SUN NOV 10 2013

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE POLAR JET AXIS OVERHEAD WILL NOT MOVE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN WILL REMAIN SITUATED IN A RELATIVELY QUIET
ZONE WITH DRY AIR HOLDING STRONG DESPITE RAGGED EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. SEMICH WILL ALSO
FEEL THE EFFECTS OF THE TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE BUILDING ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. IN SUM
TOTAL...EXPECT MORE CLOUDS THAN NOT GIVEN THE PLACEMENT OF THE JET
STREAK AND SATURATION OCCURRING AT THE TOP OF A DEEPER PBL. THE
DEEPENING OF THE PBL BY LATE MORNING WILL ALLOW WINDS TO INCREASE
AGAIN...20 TO 30 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. WIND DIRECTIONS WILL
BEGIN THE DAY WESTERLY...VEERING NORTHWESTERLY BY NOON. THE ONE AREA
THAT IS EXPECTED TO SEE THE STRONGEST AND MOST PERSISTENT OF WINDS
ARE LOCATIONS DOWNWIND OF SAGINAW BAY IN THE NORTHERN THUMB. WIND
GUSTS THERE MAY TICK ABOVE 35 MPH DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAYS
READINGS...MID TO UPPER 40S. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL STRUGGLE TO PUSH
ABOVE 40 DEGREES FOR MOST AREAS.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN THIS
MORNING WILL TRAVEL EASTWARD...ARRIVING NORTH NORTHEAST OF LAKE
SUPERIOR BY 12Z MONDAY. VERY GOOD LINKAGE TO THE ZONAL BELT OF
WESTERLIES WILL ALLOW THIS PV ANOMALY AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEMS
TO MOVE AT A RAPID PACE. THE EVENING PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY
SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND PRECIPITATION FREE WEATHER. WITH THE COLD
FRONT HAULING...AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED IMMEDIATELY IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT LATE. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO RESIDE THROUGH
THE HEART OF NORTHERN LOWER AT 12Z MONDAY. VERY GOOD FRONTAL
DYNAMICS...THE BASE AT ROUGHLY 8500 FT AGL...ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
PLACE ON THE FRONT END OF THE SYSTEM. NEGLIGIBLE PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE
FORECASTED FOR THE TONIGHT PERIOD...PERHAPS A HUNDREDTH OR TWO FOR
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN BAY/MIDLAND AND HURON COUNTY. THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES ARE CLOSE FOR A MIX...BUT SUSPECT THAT IF THERE ARE ANY
RATES AT ALL THAT SNOW WOULD BE THE PREDOMINATE PTYPE.
THEREFORE...IT IS WITHIN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY THAT A COUPLE OF
LOCATIONS COULD SEE A COUPLE OF TENTHS OF SNOWFALL BY 12Z MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON
MONDAY. NWP MODELS ARE FAIRLY CLOSE THIS RUN IN THE TIMING OF THE
FROPA...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ANTICIPATED FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. THE FRONT WILL HAVE QUITE A BIT OF DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED
WITH IT WITH A POWERFUL 130 KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET PROVIDING UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OVER SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN...PVA IN THE MID LEVELS AS A SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTH FROM THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...AND FRONTOGENESIS AROUND 800 TO 850 MB AS THE
COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH ON MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WITH THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WE WILL
STILL HAVE A RESPECTABLE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
WITH PWATS OF 0.5 TO 0.7 INCHES. GIVEN THE MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS THE
INHERITED 80 PERCENT POPS STILL LOOK LIKE A SOLID BET FOR MONDAY.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL MIX WITH AND CHANGEOVER TO SNOW AS THE COLDER AIR
SINKS SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. MODEL SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A PERIOD WHERE THE SOUNDING IS COLD ENOUGH FOR
ALL SNOW WITH THE LIFT AND MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR A BURST OF SNOW
JUST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. GIVEN THE SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME THIS
SCENARIO IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR...A FEW HOURS...AND THE WARM
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ONLY A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH
ARE EXPECTED IN THE HEAVIER BURSTS OF SNOW. BEFORE THE COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO GET INTO
THE LOW TO MID 40S SAVE FOR THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND NORTHERN THUMB
WHERE AN EARLIER FROPA WILL USHER IN COOLER AIR SOONER THAN THE
SOUTH.

DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL END MUCH OF THE
SNOWFALL POTENTIAL MONDAY NIGHT WITH NORTH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
GRAZING THE EASTERN THUMB WITH LAKE HURON LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS
INTO TUESDAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER THE
EASTERN THUMB MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...HOWEVER THE HEAVIEST BANDS
ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN OFFSHORE AT THIS TIME. VERY COLD AIR BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH HIGHS LIMITED TO THE LOW TO MID 30S ON TUESDAY. THIS
COLD PATTERN WILL LAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A POLAR
HIGH BUILDS IN ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. AS THE HIGH SLIDES EAST AND
WE GET ON THE BACKSIDE TEMPERATURES WILL EVENTUALLY MODIFY BACK INTO
THE 40S BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND LASTING INTO SATURDAY WHEN WE ARE
EXPECTED TO GET BACK INTO THE UPPER 40S.

&&

.MARINE...

GALE FORCE WINDS WILL EXPAND SOUTH ACROSS LAKE HURON THIS MORNING AS
WINDS VEER TO THE NORTHWEST AND COLD AIR SPILLS INTO THE AREA AND
INCREASES INSTABILITY OVER THE LAKE. GALE WARNINGS WILL BE IN EFFECT
FOR THE OPEN WATERS...WHERE WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST TO 35 TO 40
KNOTS. MEANWHILE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
NEARSHORE WATERS...WHERE WIND GUSTS WILL RANGE CLOSER TO 30 KNOTS
TODAY.

WHILE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
EVENING...ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING A RENEWED CHANCE OF
GALES ON MONDAY AS IT SURGES THROUGH THE AREA AND BRINGS THE COLDEST
AIR OF THE SEASON TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1150 PM EST SAT NOV 9 2013

//DISCUSSION...

WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE W-NW THROUGH THE NIGHT. PERSISTENT COLD
AIR ADVECTION AND A TIGHT GRADIENT WILL HOLD GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25
KNOT RANGE THROUGH DAYBREAK. SOME INCREASE IN WINDS IS LIKELY LATE
IN THE MORNING WITH THE ONSET OF DAYTIME HEATING. LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL KEEP INVERSION LEVELS HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP CEILINGS
VFR.

FOR DTW...ENOUGH LOW LEVEL DRY AIR HAS BEEN PRESENT TO HOLD CEILINGS
ABOVE 5K FT. THERE IS STILL A LITTLE LOWER CEILINGS OVER SW LOWER
MI...SUGGESTIVE OF MAINTAINING SOME PERIODIC LOWERING OF CLOUD BASES
EARLY THIS MORNING.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS AOB 5000 FEET EARLY THIS MORNING.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...
     GALE WARNING...LHZ362-LHZ363-LHZ421-LHZ441-LHZ462-LHZ463-
     LHZ464...UNTIL 4 PM SUNDAY.

     GALE WATCH...LHZ361-LHZ362-LHZ363-LHZ421-LHZ441-LHZ462-LHZ463-
     LHZ464...FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM TUESDAY.

     GALE WARNING...LHZ361...UNTIL 1 PM SUNDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LHZ422-LHZ442-LHZ443...UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 4 PM SUNDAY.

MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 4 PM SUNDAY.

&&

SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM....KURIMSKI
MARINE.......CB
AVIATION.....SC

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
344 PM EST SAT NOV 9 2013

MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-100930-
MIDLAND-BAY-HURON-SAGINAW-TUSCOLA-SANILAC-SHIAWASSEE-GENESEE-LAPEER-
ST. CLAIR-LIVINGSTON-OAKLAND-MACOMB-WASHTENAW-WAYNE-LENAWEE-MONROE-
344 PM EST SAT NOV 9 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

LCZ422-423-460-LEZ444-LHZ361>363-421-422-441>443-462>464-100930-
ST. CLAIR RIVER-DETROIT RIVER-LAKE ST. CLAIR-
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI-
LAKE HURON FROM 5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LT
BEYOND 5 NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON POINT MI BEYOND 5NM
OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER SAGINAW
BAY-INNER SAGINAW BAY SW OF POINT AU GRES TO BAY PORT MI-
PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI-HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI-
PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
344 PM EST SAT NOV 9 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...LAKE
HURON AND LAKE ST CLAIR.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE
HURON WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ALSO CONTINUING FOR THE NEAR
SHORE WATERS. REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE GALE WARNINGS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR LAKE HURON
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. AFTER A BRIEF LULL LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING A RENEWED CHANCE OF GALES
FROM MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

DG

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).