Severe Thunderstorm Warning 230, NWS Des Moines, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
411 PM CDT THU SEP 19 2013

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT /...
ISSUED AT 409 PM CDT THU SEP 19 2013

LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENTAL AS SURFACE CAPE RANGES FROM
2000-3000J/KG AND LAPSE RATES IN THE 7 TO 7.5 C/KM RANGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF IOWA. THE MLCAPE HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND 2000
J/KG AND LCL CONTINUE TO LOWER TO NEAR 1000M AGL. THE SHARP COLD
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SOUTHEAST AND BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR
IS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z. GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE 1.5-1.7 INCH RANGE...AND WARM LAYER
CLOUD DEPTHS AROUND 12000 FEET...SO HEAVY RAIN IS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE.

EXPECTING THE STORMS TO DIMINISH MID EVENING WITH SOME STRATIFORM
RAIN BEHIND THE MAIN LINE OF STORMS LINGERING TO AROUND 06Z FRIDAY.
USED A BLEND OF THE NAM12 AND ECMWF FOR LOW TEMPS TONIGHT AS BOTH
HAD A GOOD HANDLE OF SHARP TEMP GRADIENT.

.LONG TERM.../FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 409 PM CDT THU SEP 19 2013

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH BROUGHT SEVERE WEATHER TO PARTS OF CWA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO CONTINUE SOUTHEASTWARD PUSH OUT OF
IOWA BY 13Z FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY VERY QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND.

FOR FRIDAY...WX FROM MONTANA WILL BE ADVECTED INTO IOWA IN ADVANCE
OF HIGH PRESSURE PROPAGATING EASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDWEST. MODELS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN TERMS OF THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC WEATHER PATTERN. GFS AND ECMWF MAY BE UNDERDOING CLOUD
COVER...AS MORE CLOUDS PRESENTLY OVER MOUNTAIN WEST THAN BEING
PICKED UP. NAM DOING BEST WITH CLOUD COVER...THEREFORE WILL TREND
TEMPS TOWARDS NAM AND INCREASE CLOUDS VERSUS PREVIOUS FORECAST. 850
MB TEMPS DROP FROM AROUND 18C ON THURS TO AROUND 8C ON FRI...SO HIGH
TEMPS WILL BE AT LEAST 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR THIS WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE TO DOMINATE SATURDAY/S WEATHER. CWA
WILL REMAIN IN NW FLOW WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT COOL AIR INTO
REGION. SOMEWHAT OF A NOTICEABLE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ON SATURDAY AS
850 MB TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND 4C...OVER ONE STANDARD DEVIATION BELOW
NORMAL...IN NORTHEASTERN IOWA. LIKELY NOT A CLOUD IN THE SKY FOR A
MUCH OF THE DAY.

LATE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...A STRONG THERMAL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD OVER THE DAKOTAS TOWARDS SUNDAY. THIS RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AS
IT SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO IOWA. HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE TO THE EAST AND
RETURN FLOW TO BRING SOME MOISTURE BACK TO REGION...BUT NOT ENOUGH
TO GENERATE MUCH CONVECTION FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ADDITIONALLY...A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TO PASS THROUGH UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...WEAKENING AS IT PROPAGATES EASTWARD. FOR DMX CWA...WEAK
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN LOW LEVELS...DRY AIR ALOFT...FAIRLY NORMAL
PWAT VALUES DIDN/T INSTILL MUCH CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION. FAVORED ECMWF AS GFS SEEMS TO BE A LITTLE TOO
AGGRESSIVE IN TERMS OF POPS. ULTIMATELY...KEPT POPS LOWER AND TO THE
WEST ACROSS OUR CWA.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AFOREMENTIONED THERMAL RIDGE TO REACH
THROUGH IOWA. EDGE OF LOW LEVEL JET ALSO EXPECTED TO BE NEARBY.
SOME SLIGHT DISAGREEMENT AMONGST MOS GUIDANCE AND THE EURO...MOS A
LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...WHEREAS EURO KEEPS
MORE OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO FLOW AND SUBSEQUENTLY MORE FORCING
TO THE WEST OF OUR CWA. FORECAST CAPE VALUES SUGGEST RANGE OF 500 TO
1000 J/KG DEPENDING ON MODEL...SO WILL SEE HOW SETUP EVOLVES OVER
THE WEEKEND. MAY NEED TO INCREASE POPS. AT THE VERY LEAST...LOOKS
LIKE TEMPS LIKELY TO RETURN TO THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS IOWA.

&&

.AVIATION...19/18Z
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT THU SEP 19 2013

A FEW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF MAIN COLD
FRONT THAT HAS PUSHED INTO NORTHWEST IOWA. STORMS LOOK TO AFFECT
FOD AND POSSIBLY MCW THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. STORMS
WILL REMAIN JUST TO NORTH OF DSM ATTM. AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES
SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECTING MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TO AFFECT ALO/DSM AND A BIT LATER AT OTM. THE 19.12Z
HOPWRF HAS A GOOD HANDLE OF CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT AND LEANED TOWARD THE TIMING WRT TO CONVECTION.
OTHERWISE...CAA DEVELOPS TONIGHT AND INCREASES TOMORROW WITH A
SECONDARY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...KOTENBERG
AVIATION...PODRAZIK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
222 PM CDT THU SEP 19 2013

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-081>086-
092>097-201930-
EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-
POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-BUTLER-BREMER-SAC-CALHOUN-
WEBSTER-HAMILTON-HARDIN-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-CRAWFORD-CARROLL-GREENE-
BOONE-STORY-MARSHALL-TAMA-AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-DALLAS-POLK-JASPER-
POWESHIEK-CASS-ADAIR-MADISON-WARREN-MARION-MAHASKA-ADAMS-UNION-
CLARKE-LUCAS-MONROE-WAPELLO-TAYLOR-RINGGOLD-DECATUR-WAYNE-APPANOOSE-
DAVIS-
222 PM CDT THU SEP 19 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS IS FORECAST...MAINLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 30 WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
THE MAIN THREAT. LOCALLY BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SMALL CHANCES OF NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST...WEST OF
INTERSTATE 35 ON MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED BRIEFLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING.

KLP

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