Severe Thunderstorm Warning 179, NWS Des Moines, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
344 PM CDT FRI JUL 19 2013

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT /...
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT FRI JUL 19 2013

WEAK AND ISOLATED PRECIPITATION HAS PERSISTED ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ALONG SURFACE TROUGH AHEAD OF COLD FRONT STILL
LOCATED IN SD/MN. ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH
1500-2000 J/KG UNCAPPED CAPE AHEAD OF TROUGH...HOWEVER WEAK CAP IN
PLACE NEAR TROUGH HAS KEPT DEVELOPMENT LIMITED. IN
ADDITION...LACKLUSTER SHEAR HAS HELPED TO PREVENT STORMS FROM
GROWING. ANTICIPATE VERY SCATTERED/ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS BEFORE
SYSTEM PUSHES SOUTH OF AREA AND FRONT MOVES IN. THERE IS A CHANCE
THAT A STORM OR TWO MAY BE BRIEFLY SEVERE IF IT TAPS INTO AVAILABLE
ENERGY. HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NORTH WHERE DAYTIME HEATING WAS NOT AS STRONG. IN ADDITION FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR
ALLOWING FOR COOLING OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM.../SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT FRI JUL 19 2013

WEAK RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS IOWA EARLY SATURDAY WITH WEAK
SUBSIDENCE A RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WEATHER. HOWEVER...WILL SEE
INCREASING FORCING IN NORTHERN IOWA ALONG MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC
ZONE AS DAY PROGRESSES. INCREASING THETA-E ADVECTION ALONG THIS
THERMAL GRADIENT ALOFT WILL ALONG WITH THE INCREASING LIFT WILL
BEGIN TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SHRA/TSRA IN THE FAR NORTH BY
AFTERNOON WHILE THE SOUTH REMAINS QUIET. THIS THREAT AREA FOR PCPN
WILL REMAIN IN THE NORTH ON SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING THE STATE LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. STRONGER
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACRS THE FORECAST AREA LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

AS HAS BEEN DISCUSSED THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...BROAD WEST NORTHWEST
FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. A FEW DIFFERENT PERIODS OF
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO BE MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...19/18Z
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT FRI JUL 19 2013

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SE THROUGH AREA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND BOUNDARY
AND SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF BOUNDARY. MAY SEE TSRA/SHRA DEVELOPMENT
ALONG FRONT AFFECT KDSM/KOTM LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE ONLY
INCLUDED VCSH MENTION ATTM WITH ANTICIPATED ISOLATED NATURE OF
PRECIPITATION. WINDS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND
BECOME MORE NORTHERLY FOR END OF PERIOD.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...AWB
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...AWB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
426 PM CDT FRI JUL 19 2013

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>047-202130-
EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-
POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-BUTLER-BREMER-SAC-CALHOUN-
WEBSTER-HAMILTON-HARDIN-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-CRAWFORD-CARROLL-GREENE-
BOONE-
426 PM CDT FRI JUL 19 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS LOW AT THIS TIME
BUT AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO
TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

IAZ048>050-057>062-070>075-081>086-092>097-202130-
STORY-MARSHALL-TAMA-AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-DALLAS-POLK-JASPER-POWESHIEK-
CASS-ADAIR-MADISON-WARREN-MARION-MAHASKA-ADAMS-UNION-CLARKE-LUCAS-
MONROE-WAPELLO-TAYLOR-RINGGOLD-DECATUR-WAYNE-APPANOOSE-DAVIS-
426 PM CDT FRI JUL 19 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT A FEW ISOLATED
STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN
THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS LOW AT THIS TIME
BUT AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO
TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

AWB

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