Severe Thunderstorm Warning 169, NWS Des Moines, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
650 AM CDT WED JUN 26 2013

.SHORT TERM.../TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT WED JUN 26 2013

SHORT WAVE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR PUSHING ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA AT 4
AM.  MOST OF THE CONVECTION TONIGHT HAS OCCURRED EAST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA SO THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WAS LET GO.  SOME
FESTERING STILL GOING ON HOWEVER OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH SO I WILL LEAVE THAT AS IS FOR NOW AND WILL RE-EVALUATE
BEFORE I LEAVE MY SHIFT WHETHER TO CANCEL OR EXTEND.  AT THIS POINT
IT IS LOOKING LIKE A CANCELLATION WILL BE IN ORDER.  THERE IS ONE
CAVEAT HOWEVER...AND THAT IS THAT DYING STORMS MOVING ACROSS WESTERN
MN ARE TRENDING SOUTHEAST ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK.  THESE MAY BRUSH A
PORTION OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST IOWA.  HOWEVER SINCE THEY ARE
DYING AND ANY REGENERATION WOULD LIKELY OCCUR EAST OF THE
AREA...CLOSER TO WHERE THE SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY BE...I AM NOT
LOOKING FOR ANY HEAVY RAIN THREAT AT THIS POINT.  IT SHOULD STILL BE
A FAIRLY WARM AND MUGGY DAY TODAY.  KEPT TEMPS/DEWPOINTS ABOUT LIKE
YESTERDAY.

.LONG TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT WED JUN 26 2013

THIS PERIOD WILL BE MUCH MORE TRANQUIL THAN THE RECENT
PAST...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE STILL A FEW PRECIP WINDOWS OF CONCERN.
SHORT WAVE HELPING TO PRODUCE CURRENT NERN IA TORRENTIAL RAINS
SHOULD BE WELL EAST OF THE AREA BY 00Z WITH FAIR WEATHER HEADING
INTO TONIGHT.  ONE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED PRECIP WINDOWS RETURNS AS
SOON AS THU HOWEVER.  VERY WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL TOP THE WRN CONUS
RIDGE WITH MAINLY A THERMODYNAMIC RESPONSE INTO THE MO RIVER
VALLEY.  QUICK SHOT OF RETURN FLOW WILL BRING ANOTHER SURGE OF
INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPES BACK INTO SEVERAL THOUSAND J/KG.  ANY
CONVECTION WOULD LIKELY BE ELEVATED WITH WEAK SURFACE FLOW NEAR THE
RIDGE.  310/315K ISENT SURFACES DEPICT NICE LIFT AND BAROCLINICITY
NEAR THE MO RIVER WHICH MAY GET INTO SWRN IA...THUS HAVE RAISED POPS
A BIT IN THOSE LOCATIONS.

PATTERN WILL THEN AMPLIFY INTO THU NIGHT AND FRI WITH NOTED CHANGE
IN AIRMASS SETTING UP STAGNANT WRN CONUS RIDGE/ERN CONUS TROUGH.
NEXT PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE AROUND SAT AS SHORT WAVE AXIS ROTATES
DOWN MS VALLEY ON BACK SIDE OF ERN GREAT LAKES TROUGH.  SYNOPTIC
SCALE FORCING IS WEAK WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT INCREASED MOISTURE
BELOW 3KM COUPLED WITH LATE JUNE INSOLATION MAY LEAD TO SCATTERED
WEAK CONVECTION.  SIMILAR BUT WEAKER SIGNAL SOUTHEAST INTO SUNDAY.

PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  TROUGH/RIDGE MOVE
LITTLE BUT FLOW WEAKENS SEASONALLY.  ALTHOUGH THERE IS SUFFICIENT
EVIDENCE FOR LOW POPS AROUND TUE IN THE VICINITY OF THE UPPER
TROUGH...THE MAIN WEATHER STORY FROM THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE END OF
THE VALID PERIOD WILL LIKELY BE COOLER LESS HUMID TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS WILL LIKELY NOT TOP 80 DEGREES WITH RELATIVELY LOW DEWPOINTS
AND WEAK SURFACE WINDS.  ECMWF AND GFS BOTH SUGGEST GRADUALLY WARMER
BACK TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS BEYOND THE VALID PERIOD HOWEVER.

&&

.AVIATION...26/12Z
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT TUE JUN 25 2013

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTING EAST TODAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS
THE TAF LOCATIONS.  THERE MAY BE ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 15Z
THEN CIGS BECOMING VFR FROM W TO E THROUGH 00Z.  SOUTHERLY WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT NWRLY AFT 00Z.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BLACK HAWK-
BREMER-BUTLER-CERRO GORDO-FRANKLIN-GRUNDY-HANCOCK-HARDIN-
MARSHALL-POWESHIEK-TAMA-WINNEBAGO-WORTH.

&&

SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...FAB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
615 AM CDT WED JUN 26 2013

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-081>086-
092>097-271115-
EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-
POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-BUTLER-BREMER-SAC-CALHOUN-
WEBSTER-HAMILTON-HARDIN-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-CRAWFORD-CARROLL-GREENE-
BOONE-STORY-MARSHALL-TAMA-AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-DALLAS-POLK-JASPER-
POWESHIEK-CASS-ADAIR-MADISON-WARREN-MARION-MAHASKA-ADAMS-UNION-
CLARKE-LUCAS-MONROE-WAPELLO-TAYLOR-RINGGOLD-DECATUR-WAYNE-APPANOOSE-
DAVIS-
615 AM CDT WED JUN 26 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE MAY BE A FEW BRIEF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING. SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO SOUTHWEST IOWA THURSDAY. A
FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH SMALL HAIL.

OTHER LOW CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST AROUND
SATURDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

FAB

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
447 AM CDT WED JUN 26 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0444 AM     FLASH FLOOD      5 NNE EVANSDALE         42.53N 92.24W
06/26/2013                   BLACK HAWK         IA   911 CALL CENTER

            WATER OVER DONALD RD NEAR DEWAR

0446 AM     FLASH FLOOD      3 W DUNKERTON           42.57N 92.22W
06/26/2013                   BLACK HAWK         IA   911 CALL CENTER

            WATER OVER ROAD. CLOSURE AT DUNKETON AND RAYMOND RD.

&&

SMALL