Severe Thunderstorm Warning 120, NWS Des Moines, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
340 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT /...
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013

STRONG SHORT WAVE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR OVER SOUTHWEST MN IS
CURRENTLY SLIDING SOUTHEAST.  FORCING AHEAD OF THIS COMBINED WITH
MUCAPES OF 2500 TO 3000 J/KG AND 40 TO 55KTS OF SHEAR AND A SURFACE
LOW OVER CENTRAL IOWA WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING TOWARDS THE
HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR WILL LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF EXPLOSIVE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER NORTH CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST IOWA
BEFORE PUSHING INTO FAR EASTERN IOWA.  FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS
NORTH CENTRAL IOWA WILL BE UNDER THE GUN WITH ALL MODES OF SEVERE
WEATHER POSSIBLE.  BY 00Z HOWEVER THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE IN EASTERN
IOWA WITH THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO FAR NORTHEAST IOWA AND
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN/NORTHERN ILLINOIS.  THIS SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY
REDUCE THE SEVERE THREAT FOR CENTRAL IOWA.  WE CURRENTLY HAVE A
TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA WHICH I WOULD EXPECT TO BE LET
GO FOR CENTRAL IOWA BY 00Z BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.

FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...A RELATIVELY STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
ENTER ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW SO I EXPECT WINDS TO
INCREASE FOR AT LEAST OF BRIEF TIME THIS EVENING TO 15 TO 25 MPH.
CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH FORECAST AREA-WIDE BY 06Z ALTHOUGH TIME
HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS SHOW A COUPLE DIFFERENT LAYERS OF MOISTURE
ADEQUATE ENOUGH FOR A SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD DECK THROUGH 09Z.
TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY COOL NORTH TONIGHT AS SOME PRETTY STRONG COLD
ADVECTION...FOR JUNE...OCCURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN.

.LONG TERM.../THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013

MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE EXPECTED RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL STORMS OVER
THE WEEKEND. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW QUICK RECOVERY FROM MINOR
RIDGE APPROACHING THE AREA FOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING.
WARM AIR ADVECTION ALREADY BEGINNING TO ASSERT ITSELF ACROSS THE
AREA. SOME OVERNIGHT CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
FRIDAY SEEING A FEW PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE REGION WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BY SATURDAY MORNING ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL IOWA WITH A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING ACROSS THE EAST BY AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD KEEP THE
SOUTHERN AREAS IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH THE NORTH ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. AMPLE MOISTURE AND SHEAR WILL ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN A
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER...POSSIBLY SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AS WELL OVER THE WARM FRONTAL ZONE. THE PATTERN LOOKS TO
CONTINUE ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH A
THIRD WAVE TRACKING EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH LEE SIDE TROUGHING
BACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST TOWARD WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME THE SLOWER EURO SEEMS MORE
REASONABLE GIVEN THE TIMING OF SYSTEMS OVER THE NEXT 5 TO 7 DAYS.
HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THE COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE
WHICH WILL LIKELY DROP MINS INTO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. AT THIS
TIME THERE IS AN INCREASED LIKELIHOOD OF SEVERAL INCHES OF
RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT 5 TO 7 DAYS. THOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
AS TO WHICH AREAS MIGHT BE AFFECTED THE MOST...RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT WEEK TO ADDRESS ANY CONCERNS
REGARDING POTENTIAL FOR REPEATED RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLOODING.

&&

.AVIATION...12/18Z
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT TUE JUN 11 2013

UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE WITH A SURFACE LOW SHIFTING EAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN IOWA AND A WARM FRONT ALONG THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ERUPT ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY AND BECOME
STRONG VERY QUICKLY.  THE PRIMARY AREA WILL BE OVER KALO WITH KMCW
ON THE FRINGE THEN AS THE LOW SHIFTS FURTHER KOTM MAY SEE SOME
STRONG STORMS.  STRONG STORMS SHOULD BE OUT OF CENTRAL IOWA BY 00Z
BUT POST FRONTAL STORMS COULD LINGER THROUGH 03Z IN ABOUT THE SAME
AREA.  MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING VFR AFT
06Z.  SFC FLOW WILL BE SW AT 10G25KT AND STRONG IN STORMS BUT WILL
BECOME NORTH AT 5G15KT AFT 06Z.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...FAB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
525 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013

IAZ006-007-016-017-025>028-036>039-050-132230-
WINNEBAGO-WORTH-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-BUTLER-BREMER-
HAMILTON-HARDIN-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-TAMA-
525 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON WITH INTENSE
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 20
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GOLF BALL HAIL AND STRAIGHT LINE WINDS TO 70 MPH.
TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY OUT OF THE AREA
BY THIS EVENING. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE WILL BE SEVERAL CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS FROM
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS THE CHANCE FOR
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT. IT IS TOO EARLY TO
DETERMINE THE TIMING AND MODE OF SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

IAZ048-049-061-062-074-075-085-086-096-097-132230-
STORY-MARSHALL-JASPER-POWESHIEK-MARION-MAHASKA-MONROE-WAPELLO-
APPANOOSE-DAVIS-
525 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY
EVENING WITH 60 MPH WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE WILL BE SEVERAL CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS FROM
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS THE CHANCE FOR
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT. IT IS TOO EARLY TO
DETERMINE THE TIMING AND MODE OF SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

IAZ004-005-015-023-024-034-035-132230-
EMMET-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-CALHOUN-WEBSTER-
525 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. AN
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING QUARTER HAIL OR A WIND GUST
TO 60 MPH IS POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE WILL BE SEVERAL CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS FROM
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS THE CHANCE FOR
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT. IT IS TOO EARLY TO
DETERMINE THE TIMING AND MODE OF SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

IAZ033-044>047-057>060-070>073-081>084-092>095-132230-
SAC-CRAWFORD-CARROLL-GREENE-BOONE-AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-DALLAS-POLK-CASS-
ADAIR-MADISON-WARREN-ADAMS-UNION-CLARKE-LUCAS-TAYLOR-RINGGOLD-
DECATUR-WAYNE-
525 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE YET THIS
EVENING. AT THIS TIME...THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS
MINIMAL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE WILL BE SEVERAL CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS FROM
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS THE CHANCE FOR
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT. IT IS TOO EARLY TO
DETERMINE THE TIMING AND MODE OF SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

REV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
448 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0433 PM     TORNADO          5 N HAMPTON             42.82N 93.20W
06/12/2013                   FRANKLIN           IA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            CERRO GORDO DISPATCH RECEIVED A CALL FROM A SPOTTER THAT
            A TORNADO WAS ON THE GROUND 5 MILES NORTH OF HAMPTON OR
            SOUTHEAST OF CHAPIN, IA

&&

FBOKSA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
449 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0442 PM     TORNADO          5 NW HAMPTON            42.80N 93.27W
06/12/2013                   FRANKLIN           IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER JUST SOUTH OF HAMPTON SEES TORNADO ON GROUND 5
            MILES NORTHWEST OF LATIMER. DEBRIS CLOUD VISIBLE.

&&

AWB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
452 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0444 PM     TORNADO          8 NW HAMPTON            42.83N 93.31W
06/12/2013                   FRANKLIN           IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED A SECOND...ROPE TORNADO...SOUTH
            OF MAIN WALL CLOUD...MAIN TORNADO BECOMING OBSCURED BY
            RAIN

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
456 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0434 PM     TORNADO          1 NW BELMOND            42.86N 93.62W
06/12/2013                   WRIGHT             IA   911 CALL CENTER

            WRIGHT COUNTY REPORTED TORNADO DAMAGE WITH POWER LINES
            DOWN AND A POSSBILE LP GAS LEAK.

&&

FBOKSA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
500 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0457 PM     TORNADO          1 W HAMPTON             42.74N 93.22W
06/12/2013                   FRANKLIN           IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTS TWO TORNADOS WEST OF HAMPTON HEADING
            EAST.

&&

AWB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
503 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0437 PM     TORNADO          5 NNE LATIMER           42.83N 93.33W
06/12/2013                   FRANKLIN           IA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            CERRO GORDO DISPATCH REPORTED THAT THE PUBLIC SAW A
            TORNADO ON THE GROUND ON THE WEST SIDE OF INTERSTATE 35
            AT MILE MARKER 173...OR 5 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST FROM
            LATMIER.

&&

FBOKSA