Severe Thunderstorm Warning 98, NWS Duluth, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
713 PM CDT MON AUG 26 2013

.AVIATION...00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
THE KINL AREAS WILL REMAIN UNDER VFR CIGS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
ELSEWHERE...PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE FOUND OVERNIGHT WITH
SCT SHRA/TSRA MAINLY FROM KBRD TO KDLH...AND OVER NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. DUE TO THE RAINFALL AND LIGHT WINDS...EXPECTING SOME
FOG DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY AFTER 08Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM CDT MON AUG 26 2013/

SHORT TERM...

THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REMAIN FOCUSED AROUND THE VERY
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE NORTHLAND
TODAY...ALONG WITH THE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON...INTO TONIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SIT OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A BRANCH OF VERY WARM AIR ADVECTING NEWD
THROUGH THE CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WARM
AIR MASS...850MB TEMPS 20-23 DEG C...COMBINED WITH STRONG
SUPPRESSION FROM THE UPPER RIDGE IS PRODUCING TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND. THE OTHER
COMPONENT IS THE HUMIDITY. A STRONG SUPPLY OF MOISTURE FROM THE
S/SW IS BEING ADVECTED NWD INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH THE VERY
WARM AIR. SFC DWPTS ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE SRN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH MID TO UPPER 60S TO THE NORTH.
HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE ROUGHLY 90-105 OVER THE NORTHLAND...WITH A
LIGHT LAKE BREEZE KEEPING CONDITIONS SLIGHTLY COOLER NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR. A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR AREAS OF THE NORTHLAND ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 2 IN MN AND WI UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING. CHECK THE LATEST
WEATHER MESSAGE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

A WARM FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND INTO WI THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A RICH BOUNDARY LAYER DEVELOPING IN THE WARM
SECTOR. MLCAPE VALUES ARE RISING INTO THE 2000-3000 J/KG
RANGE...AND A FEW WEAK ECHOES ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO SHOW UP ON
RADAR AROUND THE BRAINERD LAKES AND SIREN WI AREAS AS OF 2 PM.
WILL LIKELY SEE CONVECTION PERCOLATE ALONG THE JUST SOUTH OF THE
FRONT WHICH EXTENDS ROUGHLY FROM DETROIT LAKES EWD TO AROUND
DULUTH AND INTO NRN WI AROUND MERCER. THE BL WILL CONTINUE TO
DESTABILIZE AND ERODE THE CAP THAT IS EVIDENT AT APPROX 850MB ON
THE MPX AND INL 12Z SOUNDINGS THIS MORNING. BY THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...THE SFC-BASED CONVECTION SHOULD REALLY GET GOING IN
CENTRAL MN AND EVENTUALLY BECOME ROOTED WITH THE SFC FRONT AND
RIDE EWD ALONG THE BOUNDARY INTO THE EVENING. THE MAIN CONCERN
WITH THESE STORMS WILL INITIALLY BE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL...WITH A TRANSITION TO FLASH FLOODING IN THE LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE MAIN FORCING THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
WILL BE WITH THE INSTABILITY AND THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT.
HOWEVER...LATER TONIGHT A 40 KT LLJ WILL DEVELOP AND BECOME
POSITIONED ACROSS SRN MN...WITH THE NRN NOSE OF THE JET ROTATING
EWD ACROSS CENTRAL MN/NRN WI AND PROVIDING ENOUGH SUPPORT TO
DEVELOP AND SUSTAIN NOCTURNAL CONVECTION. THE ABUNDANT AMT
MOISTURE WITH THIS AIR MASS WILL BECOME EVIDENT AGAIN TONIGHT AS
HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS. COULD POTENTIALLY SEE A
SWATH OF 2-4 INCHES OF RAIN QUICKLY FALL FROM AROUND PARK RAPIDS
TO MOOSE LAKE TO HAYWARD AND PHILLIPS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
SOME AREAS IN NW WI ALREADY RECEIVED 2-4 INCHES OR RAIN LAST
NIGHT...WHICH LIKELY IS NOT OF CONCERN FOR THE SANDY SOILS CLOSER
TO LS...BUT MIGHT PROVE PROBLEMATIC FOR AREAS FURTHER SOUTH WHERE
THE WATER IS RETAINED MUCH MORE EASILY AND ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN
WILL LEAD TO SOME FLOODING CONCERNS. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR WASHBURN...SAWYER AND PRICE
COUNTIES UNTIL 12Z TUE MORNING.

AFTER THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT LATE TONIGHT/TUE MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE LOW AND ALLOW CONDITIONS TO DRY OUT
AND SKIES TO CLEAR OFF. TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY...BUT WITH
MORE TOLERABLE HUMIDITY VALUES. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S...WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. COULD
SEE A FEW MID/UPPER 90S HI VALUES TO THE SOUTH. ALTHOUGH NO HEAT
HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FOR TUESDAY...CONDITIONS WILL
STILL WARRANT CAUTION DUE TO THE HIGH TEMPS AND HUMIDITY. THERE
COULD BE A LAKE BREEZE AROUND THE TWIN PORTS TOMORROW...ENOUGH TO
KEEP LAKE SHORE TEMPS IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S.

LONG TERM...[TUESDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY]

THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK LOOKS HOT AND DRY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHLAND AND A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SHIFT EAST OF THE
NORTHLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG
AND NEAR A WARM FRONT IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...POSSIBLY MOVING INTO THE FAR WESTERN FORECAST AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD THEN SPREAD EAST INTO
THE NORTHLAND THURSDAY WITH THE WARM FRONT. SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LINGERING ACTIVITY ALONG AND NEAR
THE WARM FRONT...AS WELL AS WITH A COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD BEGIN TO
SWEEP THROUGH THE NORTHLAND. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING A LITTLE
RELIEF TO THE RECENT HOT WEATHER. MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS ANOTHER WARM FRONT LIFTS
THROUGH OR NEAR THE NORTHLAND. A STRONG COLD FRONT MAY THEN MOVE
THROUGH THE NORTHLAND IN THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIMEFRAME...BUT THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND STRENGTH BETWEEN TO THE MODELS. THE ECMWF
IS SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER AND QUICKER WITH THE FRONT THAN THE GFS.
HOWEVER...WHAT WE CAN GATHER IS THAT A PERIOD OF COOLER AND DRY
WEATHER LOOKS LIKELY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  69  85  64  86 /  60  20   0   0
INL  65  85  60  89 /  30  10  10   0
BRD  70  92  65  91 /  60  10   0   0
HYR  69  87  63  91 /  70  40  10   0
ASX  67  79  61  83 /  70  30   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ033>038.

WI...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ001>004-006>009.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR WIZ007>009.

LS...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...GRANING

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1009 PM CDT MON AUG 26 2013

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-271415-
KOOCHICHING-NORTHERN ST. LOUIS-NORTHERN COOK/NORTHERN LAKE-
NORTHERN ITASCA-CENTRAL ST. LOUIS-SOUTHERN LAKE/LAKESHORE-
SOUTHERN COOK/LAKESHORE-NORTHERN CASS-SOUTHERN ITASCA-
SOUTHERN CASS-CROW WING-NORTHERN AITKIN-SOUTHERN AITKIN-
CARLTON/SOUTHERN ST. LOUIS-PINE-DOUGLAS-BAYFIELD-ASHLAND-IRON-
BURNETT-WASHBURN-SAWYER-PRICE-
1009 PM CDT MON AUG 26 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA...AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. A
FEW OF THE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE.

ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT IN PARTS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
HAVE PROMPTED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR WASHBURN...SAWYER AND PRICE
COUNTIES. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG STREAMS AND
CREEKS AND LOW LYING AREAS...ESPECIALLY AREAS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY
RAIN LAST NIGHT. CHECK THE LATEST FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE NORTHLAND THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

LSZ121-140>148-271415-
BAYFIELD TO OAK POINT WI-GRAND PORTAGE TO GRAND MARAIS MN-
GRAND MARAIS TO TACONITE HARBOR MN-
TACONITE HARBOR TO SILVER BAY HARBOR MN-
SILVER BAY HARBOR TO TWO HARBORS MN-TWO HARBORS TO DULUTH MN-
DULUTH MN TO PORT WING WI-PORT WING TO SAND ISLAND WI-
SAND ISLAND TO BAYFIELD WI-OAK POINT TO SAXON HARBOR WI-
1009 PM CDT MON AUG 26 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE NORTHLAND THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND.

GRANING

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DULUTH (ALL LOWER CASE)

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
754 PM CDT MON AUG 26 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0558 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BREEZY POINT            46.60N 94.22W
08/26/2013                   CROW WING          MN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN AT BREEZY POINT RESORT. VIA SOCIAL MEDIA. TIME
            ESTIMATED.

&&

KLH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
758 PM CDT MON AUG 26 2013

MNZ037-038-WIZ001-006-270130-
BURNETT-CARLTON/SOUTH ST. LOUIS-DOUGLAS-PINE-
758 PM CDT MON AUG 26 2013

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN CARLTON AND NORTHEASTERN PINE
COUNTIES...

AT 758 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM PATTISON STATE PARK
TO 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SANDSTONE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL...WIND GUSTS UP
TO 50 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  KINGSDALE...          DUXBURY...            MOOSE JUNCTION...
  SAINT CROIX STATE PARK...                    CLOVERTON...
  HAWTHORNE...          MARKVILLE...          DAIRYLAND...
  COZY CORNER...        BENNETT...            RIVERSIDE...
  DANBURY...            OAKLAND...            YELLOWLAKE...

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL BRANCHES TO BE BLOWN DOWN...AND LOOSE
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS
TREES. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE
PASSED.

LAT...LON 4645 9173 4586 9239 4614 9290 4670 9237

KK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
857 PM CDT MON AUG 26 2013

WIZ002>004-008-009-270245-
ASHLAND-BAYFIELD-IRON-PRICE-SAWYER-
857 PM CDT MON AUG 26 2013

...LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN...

AT 852 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LARGE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM BAYFIELD...SOUTH TO
HAYWARD AND SPOONER.

THIS LINE OF STORMS IS MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH...AND WILL TRACK ACROSS
NORTHERN WISCONSIN...THROUGH 1000 PM.

THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LINE OF STORMS WILL REACH THE AREAS OF...
ASHLAND...TO CLAM LAKE AND WINTER AROUND 900 PM. CONTINUING ONTO THE
AREAS OF COPPER FALLS STATE PARK...AROUND 930 PM...FINALLY REACHING
THE PARK FALLS TO HURLEY AREA AROUND 1000 PM.

THESE STORMS WILL CONTAIN A PERIOD OF VERY HEAVY RAIN...AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING. IN ADDITION...SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE.

LAT...LON 4563 9070 4564 9127 4665 9067 4685 9050
      4689 9052 4692 9045 4692 9044 4665 9065
      4659 9057 4660 9049 4655 9039 4656 9033
      4651 9022 4634 9010 4631 8994 4537 9032
      4537 9067

GRANING

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