Severe Thunderstorm Warning 65, NWS Duluth, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
257 PM CDT THU JUL 25 2013

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY EVENING.

A POTENT SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT WERE COMBINING TO PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND THIS AFTERNOON. COVERAGE
HAD BEEN GREATEST OVER THE NORTHWEST AND WESTERN ZONES...WITH THE
STORMS MOVING EAST/SOUTHEAST. WE'VE ALSO SEEN A RECENT INCREASE
OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL BE QUITE STRONG
TO POSSIBLY SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN
THREATS. A SEVERE STORM PRODUCED QUARTER SIZE HAIL EARLIER OVER PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL KOOCHICHING COUNTY. MUCAPE VALUES WERE
500-1000J/KG THIS AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH MLCAPES
RANGING FROM 100J/KG FAR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA TO 1000 J/KG OVER OUR
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN ZONES. 0-6KM SHEAR WAS 30-40 KTS. THE CHANCE
FOR STRONG- SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...LASTING
THE LONGEST OVER OUR EASTERN AREAS.

A BIG PUSH OF COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT...SENDING LOWS INTO
THE LOWER TO MID FIFTIES. THE COVERAGE OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING AS MORE STABLE AIR MOVES IN.
HOWEVER...SHOWERS SHOULD BE LIKELY OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA
UNDER/NEAR THE COLD POOL WITH THE UPPER LOW.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A MUCH COLDER DAY...WITH HIGHS ONLY FROM 55 TO
60 OVER THE ARROWHEAD...AND 60 TO 66 ELSEWHERE. RECORD LOW MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY ARE 58 AT DULUTH AND 61 AT INTERNATIONAL
FALLS...AND WE EXPECT TEMPS TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN
THAT. WE EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE LIKELY OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF
THE NORTHLAND ON FRIDAY...DIMINISHING LATE.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT EAST INTO THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND OVER THE
WEEKEND AS A STRONG STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER LAKE SUPERIOR
SLOWLY WOBBLES EASTWARD. IT MAY TAKE UNTIL LATE SUNDAY BEFORE THE
CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE NORTHLAND COMES TO AN END AND THE HIGH
PRESSURE AXIS FINALLY SETTLES INTO MINNESOTA. NOT ONLY WILL THE
NEARBY MID/UPPER LEVEL PROVIDE LINGERING BKN/OVC MID/HIGH CLOUDS
OVER THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA...BUT THE THE UNSEASONABLY COOL
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN DAYTIME SCT/BKN CUMULUS. IT WILL ONLY
BE IN THE VERY LATE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT PERIODS WHERE THERE MAY
BE SOME CLEARING SKIES FRIDAY/SATURDAY/SUNDAY NIGHTS ACROSS THE
WESTERN FORECAST AREA. THE CLOUD COVER WILL HELP TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES DOWN DURING THE DAYTIME OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL ON
SATURDAY...AND 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL ON SUNDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY BE CHILLY WITH UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S IN SOME
AREAS. THE MID/HIGH CLOUDS COULD BOLSTER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA...AND I REFLECTED THIS BY
INCREASING LOWS ACROSS THE EAST FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHTS A
BIT. OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...PLUS THE
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURE ON SATURDAY...COULD FLIRT WITH RECORD LOWS.
NOT ONLY WILL THE LOW CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE COOL NORTHERLY
FLOW RESULT IN SCT/BKN CUMULUS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BUT THERE MAY
BE SOME SPRINKLES AND LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA.

THERE SHOULD BE A WARMING TREND AS SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS AS
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE WESTERN PLAINS. MORE SIGNIFICANT
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN TO THE NORTHLAND MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHLAND DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NE MINNESOTA AND NW
WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS COLD
FRONT APPROACH AND BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. STORMS ARE
MOSTLY LIKELY TO BEGIN TO AFFECT THE KINL AND KBRD AREAS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN THE KHIB/KDLH/KHYR MID TO LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS AT KINL WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THE KBRD/KHIB/KDLH/KHYR SHOULD LIKELY CONTINUE TO
SEE VFR CONDITIONS. THERE MAY BE BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IF ANY
SHOWERS/STORMS DIRECTLY HIT ANY TERMINALS. THE STORMS SHOULD WIND
DOWN EARLY THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL USHER
IFR/MVFR CIGS AND RAIN SHOWERS OUT OF CANADA INTO THE REGION LATE
THIS EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THERE MAY EVEN BE LIFR
CIGS. FOG IS POSSIBLY LATE TONIGHT AT KDLH AND KHYR...WITH KHYR
HAVING THE BEST CHANCE. THERE SHOULD BE SOME LIFTING OF THE CIGS
LATER FRIDAY MORNING WITH IFR/MVFR CIGS CONTINUING ACROSS THE
REGION WITH SHOWERS.

THE LIGHT SW TO WNW WINDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BEGIN TO
BECOME W TO NW LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE
INTO NE MINNESOTA. THE WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN THIS EVENING...THEN
INCREASE AND BECOME WNW TO NNW LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  56  61  46  63 /  50  60  20  20
INL  53  63  41  64 /  60  50   0  10
BRD  56  65  47  68 /  30  30   0  10
HYR  56  65  46  64 /  50  60  10  20
ASX  52  60  47  61 /  50  60  10  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM....GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
119 PM CDT THU JUL 25 2013

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-261030-
KOOCHICHING-NORTHERN ST. LOUIS-NORTHERN COOK/NORTHERN LAKE-
NORTHERN ITASCA-CENTRAL ST. LOUIS-SOUTHERN LAKE/LAKESHORE-
SOUTHERN COOK/LAKESHORE-NORTHERN CASS-SOUTHERN ITASCA-
SOUTHERN CASS-CROW WING-NORTHERN AITKIN-SOUTHERN AITKIN-
CARLTON/SOUTHERN ST. LOUIS-PINE-DOUGLAS-BAYFIELD-ASHLAND-IRON-
BURNETT-WASHBURN-SAWYER-PRICE-
119 PM CDT THU JUL 25 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING AND INCREASING IN COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA...AND THEY SHOULD CONTINUE TO
THE EAST AND SOUTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. A FEW SEVERE
STORMS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN
THREATS...WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING.

LSZ121-140>148-261030-
BAYFIELD TO OAK POINT WI-GRAND PORTAGE TO GRAND MARAIS MN-
GRAND MARAIS TO TACONITE HARBOR MN-
TACONITE HARBOR TO SILVER BAY HARBOR MN-
SILVER BAY HARBOR TO TWO HARBORS MN-TWO HARBORS TO DULUTH MN-
DULUTH MN TO PORT WING WI-PORT WING TO SAND ISLAND WI-
SAND ISLAND TO BAYFIELD WI-OAK POINT TO SAXON HARBOR WI-
119 PM CDT THU JUL 25 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREATS. THE STORMS SHOULD INCREASE OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR BETWEEN 3 PM AND 5 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

MELDE

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DULUTH (ALL LOWER CASE)

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