Severe Thunderstorm Warning 103, NWS Duluth, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
350 PM CDT THU AUG 29 2013

.SHORT TERM...THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TONIGHT IS THUNDERSTORMS.

AT 330 PM...THUNDERSTORMS WERE GENERALLY ON THE DECREASE ACROSS
THE CWA. THE STRONGEST STORM WAS LOCATED OVER IRON COUNTY. THIS
WAS PART OF THE LARGE LINE OF STORMS THAT MOVED FROM THE DAKOTAS
LAST NIGHT...THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN.
TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE 60S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR TO NEAR 90 IN
OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. DEWPOINTS WERE LARGELY IN THE 60S NORTH
TO THE 70S SOUTH.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TONIGHT WILL DEFINITELY BE THUNDERSTORMS. THE
ATMOSPHERE HAS BEEN WORKED OVER PRETTY WELL FROM THE MCS THAT
MOVED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY. IT MAY STILL TAKE
SOME TIME BEFORE THINGS DESTABILIZE FURTHER FOR MORE DEVELOPMENT
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. THE NMM WRF/NSSL WRF/
HRRR AND RAP NOT DOING THE BEST AS OF 330 PM. THE 4 KM NMM WRF
SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE CURRENT SCENARIO. THIS MODEL
INDICATES THAT STORMS WILL FIRE UP AGAIN ACROSS NW MN AND SWEEP
FROM NW TO SE ACROSS ESPECIALLY THE SW 1/3 OF THE CWA. THIS WOULD
MAKE THE MOST SENSE AS THIS SHOULD BE THE AREA MOST APT TO
DESTABILIZE AND WITH THE BEST SURFACE CONVERGENCE. MANY OF THE
MODELS ARE ACTUALLY INDICATING THE MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WHICH WOULD BE WHERE IT HAS
LARGELY STABILIZED THOUGH.

FRIDAY SHOULD BE MUCH MORE QUIET...AS A COLD FRONT BRINGS A BIT
COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL
BE IN THE 80S FOR THE MOST PART.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRI NIGHT AND EARLY SAT ACROSS MUCH OF
THE UPPER MIDWEST AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND A SFC
HIGH DOMINATE THE REGION. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NRN
PLAINS AND CANADIAN FRONT RANGE FRI NIGHT AND MOVE EWD THROUGH NRN
MN AND INTO WRN ONTARIO DURING THE DAY SAT AND SAT NIGHT. THE MODELS
ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING THE SFC LOW EWD JUST NORTH OF
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER INTO WRN ONTARIO BY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A
SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWD THROUGH MN. SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT...WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS. AS THE SFC
LOW TRACKS TO THE EAST INTO CENTRAL ONTARIO AND THE FRONT SLIDES
INTO WI/MICH U.P. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL SET UP ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE LOW IN NE MN AND ALLOW GUSTY N WINDS TO DEVELOP WITH A FEW
SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON CAA RAIN SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE IN AND DOMINATE THE AREA BY MONDAY AND CONTINUE TO BRING DRY
CONDITIONS TO THE NORTHLAND THROUGH TUE AND INTO EARLY WED. A WEAK
FRONT WILL DROP SWD INTO THE REGION LATE WED AND BRING WITH IT
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS.

TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S AND LOWER TO MID 80S...ALONG WITH HUMID CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...THE COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL USHER IN A MUCH
DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS WITH HIGHS ON SUN AND MON IN THE 60S AND
70S...AND NOTICEABLY LOWER HUMIDITIES. TEMPS WARM BA

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF ISSUANCE...

LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY MOVING TO THE EAST JUST NORTH OF
DLH WITH GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY LINE AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. A BRIEF
BREAK IN THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
ANOTHER ROUND DEVELOPS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS N-CENTRAL MN
AND MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHLAND EARLY THIS EVENING. SOME OF THE
STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH VERY GUSTY WINDS AND
HAIL. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD LINGER AROUND HYR UNTIL
06-08Z...OTHERWISE CONDITIONS CLEAR OUT FROM WEST TO EAST INTO
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NNW DURING THE
MORNING FRIDAY...WITH MVFR CIGS.

&&

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  64  80  58  79 /  80  30   0  20
INL  61  84  62  82 /  80  10  20  50
BRD  68  86  62  86 /  50  10   0  40
HYR  71  83  58  84 /  70  30   0  10
ASX  68  78  59  78 /  80  30   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM....TENTINGER
AVIATION...TENTINGER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
405 PM CDT THU AUG 29 2013

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-301130-
KOOCHICHING-NORTHERN ST. LOUIS-NORTHERN COOK/NORTHERN LAKE-
NORTHERN ITASCA-CENTRAL ST. LOUIS-SOUTHERN LAKE/LAKESHORE-
SOUTHERN COOK/LAKESHORE-NORTHERN CASS-SOUTHERN ITASCA-
SOUTHERN CASS-CROW WING-NORTHERN AITKIN-SOUTHERN AITKIN-
CARLTON/SOUTHERN ST. LOUIS-PINE-DOUGLAS-BAYFIELD-ASHLAND-IRON-
BURNETT-WASHBURN-SAWYER-PRICE-
405 PM CDT THU AUG 29 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND TONIGHT...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND
TORNADOES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON OR
TONIGHT.

LSZ121-140>148-301130-
BAYFIELD TO OAK POINT WI-GRAND PORTAGE TO GRAND MARAIS MN-
GRAND MARAIS TO TACONITE HARBOR MN-
TACONITE HARBOR TO SILVER BAY HARBOR MN-
SILVER BAY HARBOR TO TWO HARBORS MN-TWO HARBORS TO DULUTH MN-
DULUTH MN TO PORT WING WI-PORT WING TO SAND ISLAND WI-
SAND ISLAND TO BAYFIELD WI-OAK POINT TO SAXON HARBOR WI-
405 PM CDT THU AUG 29 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT.
THE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE...BUT A FEW STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A STRONG COLD FRONT COULD BRING THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NEARSHORE
WATERS OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY
NIGHT.

DAP

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DULUTH (ALL LOWER CASE)

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
410 PM CDT THU AUG 29 2013

WIZ004-009-292145-
IRON-PRICE-
410 PM CDT THU AUG 29 2013

...STRONG STORM MOVING INTO PRICE COUNTY...

AT 410 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11 MILES NORTH OF MUSSER LAKE...MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT 35 MPH.

THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL...WIND
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH...BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...

* THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  RURAL PRICE COUNTY AT 420 PM

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH BINS TO BLOW
AROUND. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS
PASSED.

LAT...LON 4582 9045 4604 9019 4598 9003 4556 9003

DAP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
442 PM CDT THU AUG 29 2013

WIZ009-292200-
PRICE-
442 PM CDT THU AUG 29 2013

...STRONG STORM OVER PRICE COUNTY...

AT 443 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER EAST CENTRAL PRICE COUNTY...MOVING EAST AT
25 MPH.

THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL...WIND
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH...BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH BINS TO BLOW
AROUND. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS
PASSED.

LAT...LON 4567 9025 4588 9013 4586 9004 4582 9003
      4560 9004 4560 9005

DAP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
445 PM CDT THU AUG 29 2013

MNZ018-025-026-292230-
NORTH CASS-NORTH ITASCA-SOUTH ITASCA-
445 PM CDT THU AUG 29 2013

...STRONG STORM HEADED FOR NORTHERN CASS COUNTY...

AT 445 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES WEST OF TOWN OF CASS LAKE...MOVING EAST
AT 30 MPH.

THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING UP TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...WIND
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH...BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...

* THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  TOWN OF CASS LAKE AND WILKINSON BY 450 PM...
  SCHLEY BY 505 PM...
  BENA BY 525 PM...
  FEDERAL DAM AND BREVIK BY 530 PM...

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH BINS TO BLOW
AROUND. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS
PASSED.

LAT...LON 4741 9467 4742 9444 4751 9442 4749 9399
      4705 9423 4723 9468 4740 9468

DAP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
446 PM CDT THU AUG 29 2013

MNZ036>038-WIZ001-292230-
CARLTON/SOUTH ST. LOUIS-DOUGLAS-PINE-SOUTH AITKIN-
446 PM CDT THU AUG 29 2013

...STRONG STORM OVER PINE COUNTY...

AT 447 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR DENHAM...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING UP TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...WIND
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH...BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...

* THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  WILLOW RIVER BY 455 PM...
  MOOSE LAKE STATE PARK BY 500 PM...
  BRUNO AND BARNUM BY 505 PM...
  NEMADJI BY 510 PM...
  DUQUETTE AND KERRICK BY 515 PM...
  NICKERSON BY 520 PM...
  HOLYOKE BY 525 PM...

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH BINS TO BLOW
AROUND. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS
PASSED.

LAT...LON 4651 9218 4618 9222 4628 9311 4650 9311

DAP