Flash Flood Warning 1, NWS Duluth, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1242 AM CDT FRI JUN 21 2013

.AVIATION...
A LARGE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH 12Z WITH THUNDERSTORMS. THERE COULD BE GUSTS
TO 50 KTS IN THE KBRD AREA. FORECAST LOCATIONS MAY GO DOWN TO MVFR AND
BRIEFLY IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS. KDLH WILL REMAIN
LIFR IN FOG THROUGH 12Z THEN SLOWLY IMPROVE. MORE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON...GENERALLY AFTER 22Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 710 PM CDT THU JUN 20 2013/

MESOSCALE UPDATE...CONCERNING ONGOING STRONG/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...AND HEAVY RAIN/SEVERE POTENTIAL LATER TONIGHT...

ONGOING WARM/MOIST ADVECTION AIDED BY LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
APPEARS TO BE PRIMARILY RESPONSIBLE FOR SUPPORTING ONGOING
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND MAINTENANCE OVER EXTREME EASTERN
MINNESOTA AND MOST OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT
IS NOT EXCEPTIONALLY FAVORABLE..BUT HAS IMPROVED QUITE A BIT OVER
THE PAST FEW HOURS WITH CAPE AROUND 1000-1550 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER
SHEAR BETWEEN 30-40 KNOTS AND THESE PARAMETERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH THE INFLUX OF ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE.

CURRENT RADAR/SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS SEEM TO SUGGEST
THAT MCS-GENESIS MAY BE UNDERWAY ACROSS NW WISCONSIN WITH NUMEROUS
UPDRAFT GENERATION AND LARGE SCALE LATENT HEAT RELEASE.  SEVERE
THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IS LIKELY TO
REMAIN SOMEWHAT MARGINAL..WITH INDIVIDUAL STORMS PERIODICALLY
PULSING UP TO SEVERE LEVELS WITH QUARTER-PING PONG BALL HAIL AND
PERHAPS SOME GUSTY WINDS.  PER SPOTTER REPORTS..THESE STORMS HAVE
ALSO BEEN VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS..WITH A COUPLE OF REPORTS OF
OVER 4 INCHES OF RAIN IN SOUTHERN DOUGLAS COUNTY.  THIS MAY ACT TO
PRIME THIS AREA FOR FLASH FLOODING LATER TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING.

HOWEVER...PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN THREAT IS EXPECTED
TO EVOLVE OUT OF INTENSE SEVERE STORMS NOW DEVELOPING FROM NORTHERN
SOUTH DAKOTA TO NEAR GRAND FORKS NORTH DAKOTA.  THESE STORMS SHOULD
GROW UPSCALE INTO A LARGE AND PERHAPS FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS LATE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  RIGHT NOW..IT APPEARS THAT THE SEVERE
THREAT WILL RAMP UP SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER ABOUT 10 OR 11 PM BEGINNING
IN THE BRAINERD AND WALKER AREAS..AND THEN PROGRESS
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE DULUTH
CWA THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.  BASED THIS EXPECTED SCENARIO..AND
HEAVY RAIN EARLIER TODAY..ALONG WITH ONGOING HEAVY RAIN IN NW
WISCONSIN..WE WILL LIKELY EXPAND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS MOST
OF OUR SOUTHERN CWA WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.

&&

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  56  70  58  76 /  50  60  60  50
INL  58  75  61  79 /  30  60  50  40
BRD  65  81  67  83 /  60  60  60  50
HYR  63  82  67  82 /  60  60  60  60
ASX  53  73  58  76 /  50  50  60  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ025-
     033>038.

WI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ001>004-
     006>009.

LS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...STEWART
LONG TERM....CLC
AVIATION...CLC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
145 PM CDT THU JUN 20 2013

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-211130-
KOOCHICHING-NORTHERN ST. LOUIS-NORTHERN COOK/NORTHERN LAKE-
NORTHERN ITASCA-CENTRAL ST. LOUIS-SOUTHERN LAKE/LAKESHORE-
SOUTHERN COOK/LAKESHORE-NORTHERN CASS-SOUTHERN ITASCA-
SOUTHERN CASS-CROW WING-NORTHERN AITKIN-SOUTHERN AITKIN-
CARLTON/SOUTHERN ST. LOUIS-PINE-DOUGLAS-BAYFIELD-ASHLAND-IRON-
BURNETT-WASHBURN-SAWYER-PRICE-
145 PM CDT THU JUN 20 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. A FEW
STORMS MAY BE STRONG OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...PRODUCING PEA TO
NICKEL SIZE HAIL...LIGHTNING...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH.  SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

A MORE ORGANIZED THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED FROM
LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS ADDITIONAL STORMS
DEVELOP OVER THE DAKOTAS IN A VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE AND THEN MOVE
EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS MINNESOTA.  THE GREATEST RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE NWS DULUTH COUNTY
WARNING AREA...ROUGHLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2 IN MINNESOTA...AND WEST OF
HIGHWAY 53 IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...AND IN PARTICULAR THE BRAINERD
LAKES AND WALKER REGIONS.  THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING
THUNDERSTORM WINDS UP TO 70 MPH...AND HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLF
BALLS.  THE TORNADO THREAT...WHILE NON-ZERO...APPEARS TO BE VERY
LOW. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCAL FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

ANYONE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE
WALKER...BRAINERD AND LAKE MILLE LACS AREAS...IS STRONGLY URGED TO
CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION AND BE PREPARED FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SEVERAL PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR REMAINS OVER THE
NORTHLAND. AN INITIAL ROUND OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STORMS APPEARS
LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THERE IS A
RISK THAT SOME STORMS WILL BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS. HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR FLASH FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL DETAILS ON THE HEAVY
RAINFALL THREAT CAN BE FOUND IN THE HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK.

ANYONE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND IS STRONGLY URGED TO
CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION AND BE PREPARED FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION APPEARS LIKELY AT SOME POINT
TONIGHT...AND ALSO THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

LSZ121-140>148-211130-
BAYFIELD TO OAK POINT WI-GRAND PORTAGE TO GRAND MARAIS MN-
GRAND MARAIS TO TACONITE HARBOR MN-
TACONITE HARBOR TO SILVER BAY HARBOR MN-
SILVER BAY HARBOR TO TWO HARBORS MN-TWO HARBORS TO DULUTH MN-
DULUTH MN TO PORT WING WI-PORT WING TO SAND ISLAND WI-
SAND ISLAND TO BAYFIELD WI-OAK POINT TO SAXON HARBOR WI-
145 PM CDT THU JUN 20 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH ABRUPT
WINDSHIFTS...LOCALLY HIGHER WAVE HEIGHTS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

ADDITIONAL AND MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS MAY OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SEVERAL PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
IT APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BE FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. THERE IS A RISK THAT
SOME STORMS WILL BE SEVERE WITH LIGHTNING...STRONG WINDS...LOCALLY
HIGH WAVE HEIGHTS AND LARGE HAIL.

ANYONE WITH BOATING PLANS ON WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND IS STRONGLY URGED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST WEATHER
INFORMATION AND BE PREPARED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...AND HAVE A PLAN TO QUICKLY SEEK SHELTER ONSHORE OR
IN A SAFE HARBOR.

 MILLER

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DULUTH (ALL LOWER CASE)

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