Wind Chill Advisory 3, NWS Dodge City, KS

000 
WWUS43 KDDC 091458
WSWDDC

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
858 AM CST MON DEC 9 2013

...DANGEROUS WIND CHILL CONDITIONS ENDING...

.DANGEROUS WIND CHILL CONDITIONS ARE DIMINISHING AS TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CLIMB THIS MORNING.

KSZ030-031-091600-
/O.EXP.KDDC.WC.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-131209T1500Z/
TREGO-ELLIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WAKEENEY...CEDAR BLUFF RESERVOIR...
HAYS...ELLIS
858 AM CST MON DEC 9 2013

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 9 AM CST THIS MORNING...

DANGEROUS WIND CHILL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO END SHORTLY. THEREFORE,
THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

$$

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
500 AM CST Mon Dec 9 2013

...Update to aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 137 AM CST MON DEC 9 2013

Today will start out mostly clear as a high pressure eases off to
the east.  A low pressure area in northeastern New Mexico will allow
a stationary front to set up over northern Oklahoma this morning.
The flow aloft will shift from northwest in the early morning to the
southwest in the afternoon.  This front/upper flow pattern will set
up a slight overrunning situation, and there could be some light
snow this morning into the early afternoon across extreme southern
southwestern Kansas.  My gut feeling is we will see no more than a
few flurries.  However, to blend in better with my neighbors to the
south, I chose to go with light snow as the precipitation type, only
15 to 17 percent Pops, and only show 0.2 inch of any possible
accumulation.  High temperatures will likely be early today, as
clouds will spread quickly north in the overrunning conditions.  I
am only expecting maximum temperatures in the teens west, ranging to
the lower 20s in the southeast.

Surface high pressure will nose back in from the north tonight,
allowing for clearing skies from north to south.  It will be cold,
with light and variable winds early, become south at 5 to 10 mph
around midnight, then westerly by 12z Tuesday.  Minimum temperatures
will be similar to this Sunday night, ranging from -1F degrees in
Hamilton County to perhaps 8F degrees in Barber and Pratt counties.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 123 AM CST MON DEC 9 2013

Tuesday:

Southwest Kansas will be situated on the tail end of upper level westerlies
Tuesday. This will favor advection of a low level downslope plume with
850 hPa temperatures as warm as 4C. The ECE shows a high of 46 (!) for
Tuesday for KDDC. This is an outlier compared to the GFS/GEM. The forecast
soundings from the EC don't show that much mixing even with the aforementioned
ideal southwesterly low level flow. With go with a blend and have maximums
in the upper 30sF. No precipitation is expected. A cold front will move
across the region during the overnight period.

Wednesday and beyond:

Cold air advection is expected in the wake of the aforementioned front
with 850 hPa temperatures crashing again well into negative territory.
Maximums will be in the upper 20sF and saw no reason to deviate from
the inherited grids. No precipitation is expected with this dry front.

Otherwise, the rest of the period will feature dry conditions and moderating
temperatures. Will have to watch for precip potential on Friday as a
wave moves across the region. The allblend precipitation chances were
nil/dry for now and saw no reason to deviate.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
ISSUED AT 500 AM CST MON DEC 9 2013

VFR conditions expected. Some mid to high level clouds will continue.
Variable winds becoming northerly and eventually becoming southerly by
this afternoon 5-10 kt.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  20   3  37  14 /  10   0   0   0
GCK  20   2  37  12 /  10   0   0   0
EHA  18   4  39  14 /  20   0   0   0
LBL  19   4  38  15 /  20   0   0   0
HYS  20   5  37  12 /   0   0   0   0
P28  23   8  39  15 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Burke
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Sugden

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
326 AM CST MON DEC 9 2013

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-101000-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
326 AM CST MON DEC 9 2013 /226 AM MST MON DEC 9 2013/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL...SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC

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