Special Weather Statement, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
606 PM CDT WED JUL 10 2013

...UPDATED FOR THE AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CDT WED JUL 10 2013

AT 12Z WEDNESDAY A 500MB HIGH WAS LOCATED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS
AREA WITH SEVERAL THERMAL TROUGHS LOCATED AROUND THIS HIGH. ONE
APPEARS TO BE LOCATED IN NORTHWEST COLORADO AND ANOTHER IN NEVADA.
AT THE 700MB LEVEL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS VARIED
FROM 11C AT NORTH PLATTE TO 13C AT DODGE CITY TO 14C AT DENVER. A
WEDGE OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS WERE OBSERVED FROM THE PANHANDLE OF
TEXAS, ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO INTO SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. A
850MB FRONT APPEARS TO BE LOCATED FROM SOUTHEAST WYOMING ACROSS
NORTHERN KANSAS INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI WITH +24C REPORTED SOUTH
OF THIS FRONT AT DODGE CITY AND TOPEKA. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS
LOCATED FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 PM CDT WED JUL 10 2013

THE NAM AND GFS WERE BOTH IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MOVING AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT EXIT REGION OF A +70KT 250MB
JET. AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES OUT
INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND ENCOUNTERS A MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW.
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD EARLY THIS
EVENING AS IT SPREADS EAST/SOUTHEAST ALONG THE MID LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. CAPE VALUES GREATER THAN
1500J/KG EXPECTED AND 0-6KM SHEAR NEAR 40KTS SUPPORTS THAT
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT EARLY BEFORE THESE STORMS BEGIN TO
CONSOLIDATE INTO A MCS. AT THIS TIME THE MAIN HAZARD STILL APPEARS
TO BE WIND WITH GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH AND NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZE
HAIL POSSIBLE EARLY TONIGHT. BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN CAN ALSO
BE EXPECTED WITH THIS AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT GIVEN PRECIP
WATER VALUES OF 1.5 TO NEAR 1.75 INCHES. BASED ON THE LOCATION OF
THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL THEREFORE BE RAISING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES NORTH OF ALINE FROM GARDEN CITY TO PRATT.

ANOTHER AREA WHERE CONVECTION IS MORE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION
LATER TODAY WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND FAR WESTERN
KANSAS WHICH WILL BE NEAR A SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE LOCATED
FROM FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA. IN THIS
LOCATION HOWEVER THE INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WAS NOT AS
STRONG. AT THIS TIME IT STILL APPEARS WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN
HAZARD IN THIS AREA LATE TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT.

PRECIPITATION ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WILL TAPER OFF EARLY THURSDAY
WITH SKIES CLEARING FROM WEST OT EAST. 24 HOUR 850MB TEMPERATURE
TRENDS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND GFS INDICATED A 2-3C WARMUP BETWEEN
00Z THURSDAY AND 00Z FRIDAY IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS WHILE IN NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS 850MB TEMPERATURE SUGGESTING LITTLE IF ANY WARMING.
GIVEN THIS WILL TREND TOWARDS KEEPING HIGHS IN THE MID 90S WHILE
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS TREND TEMPERATURES UP TO NEAR 100 DEGREES
IN A FEW LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT WED JUL 10 2013

A LARGE RIDGE OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE PLAINS
INTO NEXT WEEK WITH LITTLE IF ANY RAINFALL EXPECTED AND WARM
TEMPERATURES. A WESTWARD MOVING UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE UNDER THE
RIDGE FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
HAVE LITTLE IMPACT FOR OUR WEATHER. VERY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS OF
AROUND -4 CELSIUS WILL GREATLY PRECLUDE THE CHANCES FOR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS COULD BE MET IN PARTS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DEPENDING ON THE
DEWPOINTS. A SURFACE LEE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SOUTH WINDS
OF 10 TO 20 MPH THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHER GUSTS DURING THE
AFTERNOONS.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE VERY MILD AND IN THE 70S WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
AROUND 100 TO 105 FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO ONLY
COOL SLIGHTLY FROM SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 558 PM CDT WED JUL 10 2013

FOR THIS EVENING, THERE WILL BE A FEW CIGS AOA BKN150, AND SOME
CONVECTION CROSSING WEST TO EAST. ONE ROUND OF STORMS MAY APPROACH
THE KGCK SITE IN THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD, AND
THEN A SECOND ROUND OF STORMS WILL MOVE IN FROM COLORADO AFTER 03
TO 04Z. AFTER 06Z, ALL CHANCES OF STORMS WILL BE SOUTH OF OUR TAF
SITES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE EAST AT 15G25KT THROUGH 02Z, THEN
BECOME EAST AT AROUND 10 KTS. OVERALL, YOU CAN EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
MVFR CIGS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  69  96  73 104 /  50  10  10   0
GCK  68  97  73 104 /  60  10   0   0
EHA  67  98  72 103 /  40   0   0   0
LBL  68  99  72 104 /  40   0   0   0
HYS  69  95  73 104 /  50  20  10  10
P28  74  98  74 102 /  40  30  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...BURGERT
SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...BURKE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
419 AM CDT WED JUL 10 2013

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-110930-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
419 AM CDT WED JUL 10 2013 /319 AM MDT WED JUL 10 2013/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL...SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF A SCOTT CITY
TO DODGE CITY TO COLDWATER LINE. HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS OR
PERHAPS QUARTERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AND WIND GUSTS IN THE 50 TO 60
MPH RANGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. MORE ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
AFFECT WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS LATE TONIGHT AS A COMPLEX
OF STORMS MOVES EAST-SOUTHEAST OUT OF EASTERN COLORADO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTERS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC

UMSCHEID

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