Special Weather Statement, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
329 PM CDT TUE APR 9 2013

...UPDATED SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM DISCUSSIONS...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE APR 9 2013

THE 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED OVER UTAH. A 110+ KNOT JET AT 250 MB EXTENDED SOUTH
ALONG THE WEST COAST AND THEN EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN END OF THE
UPPER LOW. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS ROTATING NORTHEAST INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS EAST OF THE LOW THIS MORNING WHILE A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE WAS IN THE SOUTH QUADRANT OF THE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN
ARIZONA. A STRONG COLD FRONT HAD PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
THIS MORNING AND HAD MOVED THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY MIDDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE APR 9 2013

THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE OUT OF THE WESTERN STATE INTO
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL
BE PROPAGATING AROUND THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
UPPER LOW TONIGHT. WINDS HAVE BEEN AROUND OR WELL INTO ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH THE DAY AND IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ABATING SOMEWHAT
THIS AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP THE WIND ADVISORY GOING UNTIL 00Z AS
WINDS SHOULD BE UNDER CRITERIA BY THEN.

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE AREA FROM
DODGE CITY TO HAYS WHERE SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY EXISTS. A
FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS HAVE PRODUCED SOME SMALL HAIL. THINK
THAT A FEW STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.

DRIZZLE HAS DEVELOPED IN THE STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY AND HAS CHANGED OVER TO FREEZING DRIZZLE AS
TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING. EXPECT THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO
EARLY EVENING. AS THE COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES INTO THIS EVENING,
EXPECT THE FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT SNOW FROM
WEST TO EAST.

AS THE UPPER JET AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATE AROUND THE EASTERN
PART OF THE UPPER LOW INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS EVENING, WE
SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY TO
THE EAST OF A WAKEENEY-DODGE CITY-ASHLAND LINE. NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN MOISTENING UP IN THAT AREA THIS EVENING.
A FAIRLY DEEP WARM LAYER SUGGESTS THAT SOME AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN
COULD ALSO DEVELOP. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME ICE ACCUMULATION IN
THE AREA AROUND AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 283 TONIGHT ESPECIALLY WHERE
THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION OCCURS. WILL ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING TO HIGHLIGHT THIS.

BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL BE
PUSHING OUT OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
COME TO AN END FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH CLOUDS DECREASING DURING THE
DAY. WITH THE COLD AIRMASS LINGERING OVER WESTERN KANSAS, HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL STAY IN THE 30S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE APR 9 2013

A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE EXITING THE REGION INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
ON THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH SOUTHWEST KANSAS WILL BE UNDER AN INCREASINGLY
SUBSIDENT AIRMASS, LOW LEVEL STRATUS WILL BE DIFFICULT TO FORECAST
THAT FAR OUT. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH INDICATE DRIER AND WARMER AIR
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS, WITH A LARGE 850 MB LEVEL TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT, SO IT IS LIKELY AT LEAST ANY LOW LEVEL STRATUS SHOULD
ERODE QUICKLY DURING THE DAY. A RAPID WARMUP INTO THE 50'S WILL BE
LIKELY DURING THE DAY, WITH THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES OVER CENTRAL
KANSAS IN THE HAYS AND LARNED AREAS.

A SECONDARY UPPER JET THE ROUNDING THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MARK THE LEADING EDGE OF A SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH PATTERN. THIS PATTERN
WOULD SUGGEST WEAK LARGE SCALE LIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES, TO
THE POINT THAT WHAT LITTLE INSTABILITY MIGHT BE PRESENT ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS OF SOUTHEAST COLORADO MIGHT BE REALIZED, RESULTING IN A
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE COLORADO LINE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE BREAKING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS FROM
CANADA, BEFORE THE MAIN SURFACE ANTICYCLONE BECOMES POSITIONED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SATURDAY.

BY SATURDAY, ZONAL UPPER FLOW WILL BE ESTABLISHED AS WELL AS
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO KANSAS
BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
BEEN ADDED FOR SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AROUND THE SATURDAY TIMEFRAME. A
COLD FRONT LOOKS LIKELY BY SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT, BRINGING ANOTHER
CHANCES  FOR CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES AGAIN BY
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT TUE APR 9 2013

GUSTY NORTH WINDS AT AROUND 25 TO 35 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH SOMEWHAT WITH
SUNSET BUT WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY. LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL
BE POSSIBLE AT THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER 00Z, FREEZING
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WHICH SHOULD BE CHANGING OVER TO LIGHT SNOW
LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  18  34  23  52 /  40  10   0   0
GCK  16  33  23  54 /  40   0   0   0
EHA  16  36  24  58 /  40   0   0   0
LBL  17  35  24  57 /  40   0   0   0
HYS  18  34  24  47 /  50  10   0   0
P28  24  39  27  52 /  60  20   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ030-
031-043>046-061>065-074>080-084>089.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CDT
WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ031-046-065-066-079>081-089-090.

&&

SYNOPSIS...GERARD
SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...GERARD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
321 AM CDT TUE APR 9 2013

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-101000-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
321 AM CDT TUE APR 9 2013 /221 AM MDT TUE APR 9 2013/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL...SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

TODAY WILL TURN WINDY AND COLD AFTER A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH.
SOUTH WINDS WILL TURN ABRUPTLY NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT 25 GUSTING TO
40 MPH TODAY. ALSO, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW TODAY, AND A
MIX OF LIGHT SNOW, LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET CHANCES ARE BASICALLY EAST OF A
HIGHWAY 283 LINE.  NO SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC

12

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
211 PM CDT TUE APR 9 2013

KSZ031-092000-
ELLIS-
211 PM CDT TUE APR 9 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN ELLIS COUNTY...

AT 209 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF ELLIS...MOVING NORTH AT 40
MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3891 9937 3896 9959 3914 9960 3913 9922
TIME...MOT...LOC 1911Z 198DEG 36KT 3902 9945

RUSSELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
223 PM CDT TUE APR 09 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0220 PM     HAIL             14 NW HAYS              39.02N 99.50W
04/09/2013  E0.50 INCH       ELLIS              KS   PUBLIC

            UP TO DIME SIZED HAIL WAS COVERING THE GROUND.

&&

MRUSSELL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
252 PM CDT TUE APR 9 2013

KSZ031-092030-
ELLIS-
252 PM CDT TUE APR 9 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN ELLIS COUNTY...

AT 245 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF CATHARINE...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 40 MPH. THE STORM WILL AFFECT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHERN ELLIS
COUNTY.

PENNY SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3913 9903 3907 9903 3889 9921 3896 9948
      3914 9947 3914 9904
TIME...MOT...LOC 1949Z 216DEG 41KT 3905 9928

RUSSELL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
329 PM CDT TUE APR 9 2013

KSZ030-031-045-046-092115-
ELLIS-NESS-RUSH-TREGO-
329 PM CDT TUE APR 9 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN NESS...EASTERN TREGO...
SOUTHWESTERN ELLIS AND WESTERN RUSH COUNTIES...

AT 325 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR BAZINE...MOVING NORTH AT 40 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3906 9986 3898 9930 3835 9959 3841 10003
TIME...MOT...LOC 2029Z 197DEG 41KT 3855 9964

RUSSELL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
416 PM CDT TUE APR 9 2013

KSZ031-046-092200-
ELLIS-RUSH-
416 PM CDT TUE APR 9 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL RUSH AND EASTERN ELLIS
COUNTIES...

AT 413 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NEKOMA...MOVING NORTH AT 55
MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3907 9903 3835 9925 3837 9952 3912 9931
TIME...MOT...LOC 2116Z 196DEG 48KT 3844 9937

GERARD