Severe Thunderstorm Warning 59, NWS Dodge City, KS

277 
WWUS53 KDDC 090026
SVSDDC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
726 PM CDT WED MAY 8 2013

KSC055-057-069-083-101-135-171-090100-
/O.CON.KDDC.SV.W.0059.000000T0000Z-130509T0100Z/
SCOTT KS-NESS KS-LANE KS-HODGEMAN KS-GRAY KS-FINNEY KS-FORD KS-
726 PM CDT WED MAY 8 2013

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN
FORD...NORTHEASTERN FINNEY...NORTHERN GRAY...WESTERN HODGEMAN...
LANE...SOUTHWESTERN NESS AND EASTERN SCOTT COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM
CDT...

AT 723 PM CDT...A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM GRIGSTON TO 13 MILES NORTHWEST OF KALVESTA TO
HOWELL...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. ANOTHER SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WAS LOCATED NEAR ALAMOTA...MOVING NORTH AT 35 MPH.

HAZARD...QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND 70 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES AND CROPS IS EXPECTED. EXPECT
         CONSIDERABLE TREE DAMAGE. WIND DAMAGE IS ALSO LIKELY TO
         MOBILE HOMES...ROOFS AND OUTBUILDINGS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SCOTT STATE LAKE...MANNING...AMY...DIGHTON...HEALY...ALAMOTA...
BEELER...SHIELDS...JETMORE AND PENDENNIS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. PEOPLE OUTSIDE
SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION. THESE STORMS HAVE PRODUCED
WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE ACROSS PORTIONS OF FINNEY COUNTY. SEEK SHELTER
NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 3864 10020 3807 9983 3761 10032 3796 10061
      3824 10098 3870 10093 3871 10048
TIME...MOT...LOC 0025Z 225DEG 29KT 3848 10070 3823 10037
          3783 10015

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...70MPH

$$

UMSCHEID

630 
WWUS53 KDDC 090059
SVSDDC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
759 PM CDT WED MAY 8 2013

KSC055-057-069-083-101-135-171-090110-
/O.EXP.KDDC.SV.W.0059.000000T0000Z-130509T0100Z/
SCOTT KS-NESS KS-LANE KS-HODGEMAN KS-GRAY KS-FINNEY KS-FORD KS-
759 PM CDT WED MAY 8 2013

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN FORD...
NORTHEASTERN FINNEY...NORTHERN GRAY...WESTERN HODGEMAN...LANE...
SOUTHWESTERN NESS AND EASTERN SCOTT COUNTIES HAS EXPIRED...

THE LINE OF STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED AND MOVED
OUT OF THE WARNED AREA.

LAT...LON 3864 10020 3807 9983 3761 10032 3796 10061
      3824 10098 3870 10093 3871 10048
TIME...MOT...LOC 0100Z 225DEG 29KT 3868 10044 3843 10011
          3803 9990

$$

UMSCHEID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
620 PM CDT WED MAY 8 2013

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1156 AM CDT WED MAY 8 2013

WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOWED A MID LEVEL CYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS AS OF LATE MORNING. A MID LEVEL POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY
WAS ELLIPTICAL IN ITS CONFIGURATION FROM FAR NORTHEAST ARIZONA
THROUGH NORTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO. RAP
ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR LOOP SUGGESTED THE GREATEST MID LEVEL
ASCENT WAS OCCURRING OVER THE SANGRES OF FAR SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. LIGHTNING STRIKES AS OF 1615 UTC WERE
CLUSTERED ALONG THE FRONT RANGE IN THE PUEBLO VICINITY. 850MB UPPER
AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED DEEPEST MOISTURE ACROSS WEST TEXAS WITH AN AXIS
OF +13 TO +15C DEWPOINTS FROM MIDLAND TO AMARILLO. THIS MOISTURE WAS
MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE WITH 58 TO 60F DEWPOINTS OBSERVED FROM
WEST TEXAS THROUGH FAR SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA.

A SMALL MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (MCS) DEPARTED SOUTH
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING AND LEFT AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. WINDS WERE OUT OF THE DUE EAST
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 54 TO 57F RANGE ON THE
COOL SIDE OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LOST ITS
DEFINITION FARTHER WEST...BUT COULD STILL BE FOLLOWED UP TO THE
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. AS OF 16Z...THE STRONGEST
SURFACE-BASED CONVERGENCE WAS ALONG THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHERE IT MET A DEVELOPING DRYLINE...SOMEWHERE IN
THE GLAZIER, TX TO SHATTUCK, OK VICINITY. THE SYNOPTIC SURFACE LOW
WAS LOCATED NEAR GUYMON, OK AND A NEBULOUS TROUGH AXIS EXTENDED
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THIS LOW THROUGH WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT WED MAY 8 2013

TONIGHT:
SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE FORECAST. THE
STRONGEST ASCENT TIED TO THE NOSE OF THE MID LEVEL POTENTIAL
ANOMALY...WILL APPROACH SOUTHWEST KANSAS DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF
THE DAY. THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MENTIONED IN THE SYNOPSIS SECTION WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DISSOLVE AS THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW RESPONDS
TO THE SYNOPTIC LOW OVER THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. THE NARROW CHANNEL
OF UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 DEWPOINTS WILL ADVECT NORTHWESTWARD INTO
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. STORMS OVER SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO WILL CONTINUE TO
EXPAND EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON...AND WHEN IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH
THE MID TO UPPER 50S DEWPOINTS...SEVERE STORMS WILL BECOME MORE OF
AN ISSUE. THERE ARE SEVERAL AREAS WHERE SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP AS
SMALL AREAS OF CONVERGENCE DEVELOP CLOSE TO THE SURFACE LOW. ALL
SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
IN THE 00-06Z TIME FRAME THIS EVENING.

AS FAR AS THREATS GO...THE BEST TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL BE ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS...AND ESPECIALLY IN THE 00Z TO 03Z TIME FRAME
WHEN 0-1KM AGL SHEAR RAMPS UP SIGNIFICANTLY. HIGHER DEGREE OF
MOISTURE CONTENT WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 58 TO 61F RANGE DUE
TO CONVERGENCE WILL BE FOUND HERE. THIS SAME AREA...MAINLY SOUTHEAST
OF AN ENGLEWOOD TO SAINT JOHN LINE...WILL ALSO SEE THE GREATEST
THREAT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL TO AROUND TENNIS BALL OR BASEBALL SIZE.
NORTH OF THIS LINE...LARGE HAIL TO 2 INCHES DIAMETER APPEARS QUITE
POSSIBLE...BUT UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL BE A BIT WEAKER AND
THERE WILL BE A LARGER CONCENTRATION OF STORMS SO VERY LARGE HAIL
PRODUCTION DOES NOT LOOK QUITE AS IDEAL.  THE AREA GENERALLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF A LAKIN TO JETMORE TO LARNED LINE WILL SEE A HEAVY RAIN
THREAT...AS ORIENTATION OF STORMS IN A WEST-SOUTHWEST TO
EAST-NORTHEAST MANOR MAY PROMOTE TRAINING OF STORMS OVER THE SAME
GENERAL LOCATIONS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS.  HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ADDED
"HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE" IN THE GRIDS FOR THIS PORTION OF THE DDC
FORECAST AREA.  A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE MCS WILL LIKELY RESULT AFTER 04Z
OR SO WITH A TRANSITION MORE TO A STRONG/DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS ONE
OR TWO BOW SEGMENTS MAY EVOLVE.

THURSDAY:
COOL, YET STILL MOIST NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY. WE SHOULD SEE SOME FILTERED INSOLATION ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE UPPER 60S TO PERHAPS LOWER 70S...ALLOWING
FOR REGENERATION OF SOME SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE
AFTERNOON DUE TO A RATHER COOL (AND SOMEWHAT MOIST) MID LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT.  WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WHOLE
SOUTHWEST KANSAS REGION FOR THE DAY THURSDAY AS A RESULT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT WED MAY 8 2013

THE PERIOD FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY APPEARS CLOUDY AND
CLIMATOLOGICALLY NEAR NORMAL, WITH WEAKLY UPSLOPE NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE
WINDS. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW MOIST 850 MB FIELDS SUGGESTIVE OF
WIDESPREAD STRATUS THAT ONLY SLOWLY ERODES ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS ON
FRIDAY. THE WARMEST OF MODEL SOLUTIONS ALLOW LOW 70'S WHICH IS
CLIMATOLOGICALLY NORMAL FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. DEPENDING ON THE
EXTENSIVENESS OF CLOUDINESS, TEMPERATURES COULD RANGE ANYWHERE FROM
THE MID 60'S TO MID 70'S.

THE UPPER POLAR LOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL THEN TRACK SOUTHEAST
TO SOUTH OF HUDSON BAY, AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO DOMINATE
THE WESTERN PLAINS. THIS WILL LIKELY MARK THE BEGINNING OF A WARMER
AND DRIER PERIOD WHICH SHOULD LAST TOUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK BARRING
ANY ISOLATED CONVECTIVE EVENTS. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. ANY
CONVECTION WOULD BE DUE TO CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY AND SURFACE
CONVERGENCE, AND WOULD BE PURELY DIURNALLY DRIVEN. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY
SATURDAY NIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL JET WILL BECOME FOCUSED ZONALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE, UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY
EVOLVE FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH
MID WEEK. THIS PATTERN COULD ALLOW OPPORTUNITIES FOR ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM HIGH TERRAIN SURFACE HEATING OVER
EASTERN COLORADO, CLOSE TO FAR WESTERN KANSAS. AN 850 MB TO 700 MB
LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW ACROSS NEBRASKA
KANSAS COULD ALSO BE A FAVORED FOCUS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
BY WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 613 PM CDT WED MAY 8 2013

SOME SEVERE TO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND OUTFLOW WINDS ARE EXPECTED
AT KGCK BY 00-01Z TONIGHT, THEN LATER AROUND KHYS. THE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY MISS KDDC TO THE NORTH. AREAS OF STRATUS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS MAY
ALSO DEVELOP AFTER 03-06Z. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH WITH A
COLD FRONT AT 10-20KT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  54  65  48  65 /  60  30  20  10
GCK  52  66  47  65 /  80  30  20  10
EHA  51  66  49  66 /  40  40  30  10
LBL  53  68  49  67 /  20  40  30  10
HYS  55  66  49  66 /  90  30  20  10
P28  59  73  54  68 /  80  40  20  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...UMSCHEID
SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...KRUSE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
510 AM CDT WED MAY 8 2013

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-091000-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
510 AM CDT WED MAY 8 2013 /410 AM MDT WED MAY 8 2013/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL...SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH SOME SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED. A FEW OF THE STORMS
COULD PRODUCE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS, WITH QUARTER TO GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL POSSIBLE FARTHER NORTH
AND WEST. AN ISOLATED TORNADO COULD ALSO DEVELOP TOWARD CENTRAL
KANSAS ALONG A WARM FRONT. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE EARLY
THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING BY LATE EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON THURSDAY BUT
THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED OVER SOUTHWEST AND INTO CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC

GERARD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
646 PM CDT WED MAY 08 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0636 PM     HAIL             2 W PRESTON             37.76N 98.59W
05/08/2013  E0.88 INCH       PRATT              KS   PUBLIC

0641 PM     TSTM WND GST     GARDEN CITY             37.98N 100.86W
05/08/2013  E60.00 MPH       FINNEY             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
648 PM CDT WED MAY 08 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0635 PM     TORNADO          3 NNE CATHERINE         38.97N 99.20W
05/08/2013                   ELLIS              KS   CO-OP OBSERVER

            HE OBSERVED 2 TORNADOES, ONE LIFTED, ONE PARTIALLY LIFTED
            BUT BACK DOWN ON THE GROUND. FIRST TORNADO DOWN FOR ABOUT
            4 TO 5 MINUTES.

&&

06

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
651 PM CDT WED MAY 08 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GARDEN CITY             37.98N 100.86W
05/08/2013                   FINNEY             KS   PUBLIC

            WINDS ESTIMATED AT 60 MPH BLEW DOWN TREE BRANCHES TWO TO
            THREE INCHES IN DIAMETER NEAR GARDEN CITY COMMUNITY
            COLLEGE.

&&

01

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
652 PM CDT WED MAY 08 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0640 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST N PLYMELL               37.81N 100.87W
05/08/2013  E80 MPH          FINNEY             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRUCK TRAILER BLOWN OVER BY STRONG WINDS ON HIGHWAY 83.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
653 PM CDT WED MAY 08 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0635 PM     HAIL             5 S GARDEN CITY         37.90N 100.87W
05/08/2013  E1.00 INCH       FINNEY             KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

0635 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 S GARDEN CITY         37.90N 100.87W
05/08/2013  E60 MPH          FINNEY             KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

01

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
657 PM CDT WED MAY 08 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0640 PM     HAIL             5 NW BUTTERMILK         37.17N 99.40W
05/08/2013  E2.00 INCH       COMANCHE           KS   PUBLIC

&&