Severe Thunderstorm Warning 23, NWS Dodge City, KS

426 
WWUS53 KDDC 170623
SVSDDC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
123 AM CDT WED APR 17 2013

KSC047-097-151-185-170645-
/O.CON.KDDC.SV.W.0023.000000T0000Z-130417T0645Z/
STAFFORD KS-PRATT KS-KIOWA KS-EDWARDS KS-
123 AM CDT WED APR 17 2013

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN
EDWARDS...NORTHEASTERN KIOWA...NORTHWESTERN PRATT AND SOUTHWESTERN
STAFFORD COUNTIES UNTIL 145 AM CDT...

AT 120 AM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR TROUSDALE...
AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

HAZARD...PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT DAMAGE
         TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS...VEHICLES AND CROPS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
TROUSDALE...HOPEWELL...BELPRE...MACKSVILLE AND DILLWYN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3799 9916 3797 9872 3765 9900 3776 9917
TIME...MOT...LOC 0623Z 206DEG 37KT 3777 9906

HAIL...1.50IN
WIND...<50MPH

$$

FINCH

930 
WWUS53 KDDC 170646
SVSDDC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
146 AM CDT WED APR 17 2013

KSC047-097-151-185-170656-
/O.EXP.KDDC.SV.W.0023.000000T0000Z-130417T0645Z/
STAFFORD KS-PRATT KS-KIOWA KS-EDWARDS KS-
146 AM CDT WED APR 17 2013

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN EDWARDS...NORTHEASTERN
KIOWA...NORTHWESTERN PRATT AND SOUTHWESTERN STAFFORD COUNTIES HAS
EXPIRED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED
AREA.

LAT...LON 3799 9916 3797 9872 3765 9900 3776 9917
TIME...MOT...LOC 0623Z 206DEG 37KT 3777 9906

$$

FINCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1227 AM CDT WED APR 17 2013

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE APR 16 2013

TONIGHT:

STRATUS FILL BACK IN TONIGHT AS 850 HPA UPSLOPE FLOW STRENGTHENS. IN
ADDITION, A STRENGTHENING WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
WILL ALSO FAVOR CONTINUED STRATUS. THIS STRATUS WILL THICKEN ENOUGH
FOR DRIZZLE PRODUCTION. 850 HPA THETA-E ADVECTION IS STRONGEST ACROSS
C/SC KANSAS, SO OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WILL BE A CONCERN. 1000-2000 J/KG
OF MUCAPE IS PLENTY FOR MORE ROBUST CONVECTION, HOWEVER, 1-6 KM (NOT
0-6 KM SINCE CONVECTION WILL NOT BE SURFACE BASED) SHEAR IS ON THE WEAK
SIDE (30 KT). A STORM MIGHT PRODUCE QUARTER SIZE HAIL, BUT THAT IS ON
THE LIBERAL SIDE OF FORECAST HAIL SIZE. OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED IN THE
30S DEG F.

TOMORROW:

THE GFS CONTINUES TO SUFFER FROM POOR PERFORMANCE AND VERIFICATION AND
WAS IGNORED. THE COOL AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE ACROSS MUCH
OF SW KANSAS. AGAIN, THERE COULD BE SOME STORMS ACROSS THE EAST, HOWEVER
THIS CONVECTION WILL BE ELEVATED. INSTABILITY WEAKENS THROUGH THE DAY
AS THE COLD AIRMASS SINKS SOUTH SO PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION VALUES
COULD BE OVERDONE. FORECAST TEMPERATURES FOR TOMORROW WERE A BLEND OF
THE NAM AND ECMWF. MAXIMUMS MAINLY IN THE 40S/50S DEG F. WIDESPREAD
OR MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE WELL SOUTH
OF THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT TUE APR 16 2013

A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...LONG ADVERTISED BY THE MODELS...WILL BE
MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER
THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THIS COLD AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO CHARGE SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT. THE ECMWF/NAM MODELS
SHOW THE 850 MB FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
FOR A PERIOD OF TIME WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE IT IS PUSHED SOUTH.
AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL BE LIFTING OUT OF THE BASE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH INTO THAT AREA WHICH COULD HELP SUPPORT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE THE DEEPER
COLD AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. MODEL SOUNDINGS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS SHOW INSTABILITY ABOVE THE FRONTAL INVERSION WITH ROUGHLY
1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE. IF STORMS DEVELOP IN THAT AREA THEY SHOULD
BE CAPABLE OF AT LEAST SOME QUARTER SIZE HAIL. FARTHER WEST, RAIN
WILL BE CHANGING OVER TO SNOW AS THE ATMOSPHERE COOLS. AREAS FROM
SYRACUSE TO WAKEENEY WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE SNOW
BUT AM NOT EXPECTING THIS TO AMOUNT TO TOO MUCH. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN AN INCH AT THE MOST. GIVEN THE LIGHTER
AMOUNTS AND THAT THIS WILL LIKELY BE A WET SNOW, DO NOT EXPECT
BLOWING SNOW TO BE A PROBLEM. WITH THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION
OCCURRING, NORTH WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS AND INTO THURSDAY. THE GFS MOS LOOKS WAY OVERDONE ON WIND
SPEEDS. NAM MOS LOOKS MORE REASONABLE BUT EVEN THEN WE COULD BE
PUSHING ADVISORY CRITERIA SPEEDS DURING THE NIGHT.

THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OUT
OF THE PLAINS. MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH BECOMES
NORTHWESTERLY WITH INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS. AFTER A DAY OF HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 30S
AND LOWER 40S THURSDAY, WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS BOUNCING BACK INTO THE
50S AND 60S ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, RESPECTIVELY.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS WILL MOVE OUT OF WESTERN CANADA INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
COUNTRY. DETAILS ABOUT THESE FEATURES WILL LIKELY CHANGE DURING THE
NEXT FEW RUNS, SO WILL HAVE AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS IN
THE FORECAST FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT A SURGE OF COLDER AIR WILL BE MOVING DOWN
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY. IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES, WE WILL
SEE A FEW DAYS OF HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AGAIN MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THE GFS IS NOT NEAR AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE COLD AIR.
OBVIOUSLY A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT SO GOING WITH THE
ALLBLEND SEEMS THE BEST CHOICE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT WED APR 17 2013

IFR CONDITIONS WITH DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT
18Z, THEN MODELS SHOW THE DRIZZLE ENDING BUT STILL IN IFR CIGS.
A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO WESTERN KANSAS BY
00-03Z THURSDAY WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS OF 25-40KTS AND AREAS
OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  26  39  23  57 /  50  20   0   0
GCK  25  38  22  58 /  50  30   0   0
EHA  25  39  23  59 /  50  10   0   0
LBL  26  41  23  60 /  50   0   0   0
HYS  27  37  22  54 /  60  40  10   0
P28  32  42  25  56 /  60  10   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...KRUSE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
540 PM CDT TUE APR 16 2013

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-171000-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-PRATT-M
ORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
540 PM CDT TUE APR 16 2013 /440 PM MDT TUE APR 16 2013/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL...SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HAIL AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT, GENERALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM DIGHTON TO
ASHLAND AND EASTWARD. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL TO HALF
DOLLAR SIZE, IS FROM HAYS TO KINSLEY AND EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTERS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1235 AM CDT WED APR 17 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1229 AM     HAIL             COLDWATER               37.26N 99.34W
04/17/2013  E1.00 INCH       COMANCHE           KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

JFINCH