Severe Thunderstorm Warning 185, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
635 PM CDT MON JUN 24 2013

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT MON JUN 24 2013

A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH BY LATE JUNE STANDARDS WAS
APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON.
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, STRONG SURFACE TROUGH HAD DEVELOPED OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS, WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
ELEVATED CONVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPED THIS MORNING
EAST OF DODGE CITY AND THEN MOVED EAST AND WEAKENED. ANOTHER BATCH
OF ELEVATED CONVECTION DEVELOPED WEST OF A SURFACE DRYLINE IN
SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND MOVED INTO FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON. SURFACE BASED CONVECTION HAD NOT YET DEVELOPED AS OF 3
PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT MON JUN 24 2013

THE SHORT RANGE HRRR DOES INDICATE STORMS DEVELOPING IN THE TEXAS
AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL FORCING
AIDS IN LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE. GIVEN THE FAIRLY
STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST, THIS CONVECTION SHOULD
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD FAIRLY RAPIDLY INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS
EVENING. SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES WERE APPROACHING 3000 J/KG FROM
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE.
0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WAS APPROACHING 40 KTS IN THIS SAME AREA, BUT
LOW LEVEL SHEAR WAS VERY WEAK. GIVEN THE EXPECTED HIGH DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS AND RESULTANT HIGH CLOUD BASES, THE STORMS MAY DEVELOP
QUITE A BIT OF OUTFLOW, AND THIS MAY LIMIT THE SEVERITY AS FAR AS
HAIL SIZE IS CONCERNED (SINCE THE STORMS MAY NOT REMAIN AS
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AS LONG). BUT HAIL AS LARGE AS GOLFBALLS IS
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. IT IS UNCLEAR HOW ORGANIZED
THE STORMS WILL BE AND HOW WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY THE RESULTANT
RAINFALL WOULD BE. BUT STORM CHANCES WERE INCREASED TO 30-40% FOR
PARTS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS INCLUDING DODGE CITY, JETMORE AND LARNED
GIVEN THE SIGNIFICANT FORCING AND SURFACE BASED CAPE.

AFTER THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES TONIGHT AND WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING, STORM CHANCES WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY BY
LATE EVENING. THE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BEGIN TO VEER AS WELL AND
THIS WILL RESULT IN THE AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE SHIFTING EASTWARD.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 15 KTS EVEN LATE TONIGHT WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES
FROM DROPPING BELOW THE LOWER 70S AT DODGE CITY, HAYS AND PRATT,
WITH ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER.

BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH, A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH A TRAILING DRYLINE EAST OF
DODGE CITY AND INTO THE PANHANDLES. VERY HOT TEMPERATURES FROM 103
TO 106F ARE EXPECTED IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE DRYLINE WHERE THE LOW
LEVEL AIR HAS MOVED DOWNSLOPE AND WARMED ADIABATICALLY. ONLY
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR CAN BE EXPECTED IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS ON THE
HIGHER TERRAIN, AND BEHIND THE WEAK COLD FRONT FROM WAKEENEY TO
DIGHTON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON GIVEN
THE LACK OF FORCING IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SINCE
THE LOW LEVEL MOIST AXIS WILL HAVE SHIFTED FURTHER EAST BY THE
TIME OF PEAK HEATING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT MON JUN 24 2013

ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE LOWER 48 STATES AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS NOW
MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL BE EXITING
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS IN ITS
WAKE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK
FAIRLY SMALL GIVEN THE LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT AND A FAIRLY DRY
AIRMASS.

THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK, 500 MILLIBAR HEIGHTS WILL BE
BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. WITH
INCREASING THICKNESS VALUES OVER WESTERN KANSAS WE SHOULD SEE
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK UP TO AROUND OR ABOVE 100
DEGREES ESPECIALLY BY THURSDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE BECOMES MORE
AMPLIFIED OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA TOWARD THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE NORTHWESTERLY OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EARLY FRIDAY WITH EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW
SETTING UP INTO THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES. AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OFF THE FRONT RANGE. GIVEN THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW, SOME OF THESE COULD MOVE INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS FRIDAY
EVENING.

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY BECOMES
EVEN MORE MERIDIONAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE ALL BEEN TRENDING IN THIS DIRECTION
THROUGH THE PAST FEW RUNS. THINK THAT THE CURRENT WEEK TWO OUTLOOK
SHOULD BE TRENDED BACK TO AT LEAST NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR NOW
BUT BASED ON FORECAST TEMPERATURES, WE COULD BE EVEN COOLER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT MON JUN 24 2013

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG
AND EAST OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDED FROM JUST WEST OF
DODGE CITY INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY THIS EVENING. BRIEF
PERIODS OF WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH, HAIL, AND HEAVY RAIN THAT WILL
REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN ONE MILE WILL BRIEFLY BE POSSIBLE
FROM A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS. AT THIS TIME WILL BASE TIMING
OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR WHICH
INDICATES DODGE CITY AND HAYS WILL BE MAINLY IMPACTED FROM THESE
STORMS. DODGE CITY UNTIL 0030 AND HAYS BETWEEN 02Z AND 04Z. AFTER
THE STORMS PASS THE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO AROUND 15KNOTS AND VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  74 105  69 101 /  80   0   0   0
GCK  72 104  65 101 /  20   0   0   0
EHA  70 103  66 101 /  20   0   0   0
LBL  74 105  68 104 /  30   0   0   0
HYS  74 104  70 101 /  30   0   0   0
P28  74 100  74 101 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ030-031-043>046-
062>066-075>081-085>090.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ061-062-074.

&&

SYNOPSIS...FINCH
SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...BURGERT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1038 AM CDT MON JUN 24 2013

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-251115-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
1038 AM CDT MON JUN 24 2013 /938 AM MDT MON JUN 24 2013/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL...SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HAIL AS LARGE AS GOLF BALL SIZE IS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.
THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS IS ALONG AND NEAR A LINE FROM LIBERAL TO
CIMARRON TO JETMORE TO WAKEENEY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

A FEW STORM SPOTTERS MAY NE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC

FINCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
609 PM CDT MON JUN 24 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0605 PM     HAIL             4 WSW DODGE CITY        37.73N 100.07W
06/24/2013  E0.88 INCH       FORD               KS   NWS EMPLOYEE

            PEA TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL IS BEING OBSERVED.

&&

MSCOTT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
611 PM CDT MON JUN 24 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     HAIL             7 NW MISSLER            37.40N 100.52W
06/24/2013  E0.75 INCH       MEADE              KS   PUBLIC

0608 PM     HAIL             1 W DODGE CITY          37.76N 100.03W
06/24/2013  E1.00 INCH       FORD               KS   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

GERARD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
633 PM CDT MON JUN 24 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     HAIL             9 WSW MEADE STATE PARK  37.12N 100.57W
06/24/2013  E1.75 INCH       MEADE              KS   PUBLIC

&&

MSCOTT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
642 PM CDT MON JUN 24 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0635 PM     HAIL             4 NW MISSLER            37.36N 100.47W
06/24/2013  M1.75 INCH       MEADE              KS   PUBLIC

&&

MSCOTT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
651 PM CDT MON JUN 24 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0620 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 W SPEARVILLE          37.85N 99.80W
06/24/2013  E60.00 MPH       FORD               KS   PUBLIC

            A FEW SHINGLES WERE BLOWN OFF THE HOUSE.

&&

GERARD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
653 PM CDT MON JUN 24 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 WNW BELLEFONT         37.89N 99.70W
06/24/2013  E60.00 MPH       FORD               KS   PUBLIC

&&

MSCOTT