Flash Flood Warning 15, NWS Dodge City, KS

507 
WGUS73 KDDC 081005
FFSDDC

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
505 AM CDT THU AUG 8 2013

KSC151-081014-
/O.CAN.KDDC.FF.W.0015.000000T0000Z-130808T1030Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
PRATT KS-
505 AM CDT THU AUG 8 2013

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR PRATT COUNTY...

THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING HAS ENDED ACROSS PRATT COUNTY. LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 7 AM LEADING TO AN ADDITIONAL
ONE HALF INCH OF RAIN IN SOME AREAS.

LAT...LON 3752 9888 3780 9891 3775 9846 3748 9846

$$

UMSCHEID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
254 AM CDT Thu Aug 8 2013

...Update to short term discussion...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1010 PM CDT WED AUG 7 2013

The 08.00Z 250 hPa showed 50 KT flow extending from KDDC increasing
to around 100 KT at KAPX. @ 500 hPa, a 577-580 decameter cyclone was
spinning off northwest California. Downstream, an open wave was moving
across the central Rockies. A huge 550 decameter cyclone was noted across
west central Ontario. @ 700 hPa, easterly upslope flow was observed
at KDDC. This upslope flow also continued at 850 hPa and down to the
sfc. The precipitable water for KDDC was 1.41" (above the 75th percentile
for a Gaussian distribution). At the sfc, a stationary front was located
across the KS/OK state border. KDDC WSR-88D was busy indicating an
MCS to the west.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT THU AUG 8 2013

...Pretty busy shift this morning. Most of the attention was paid to
overnight convection and then some to this afternoon...

This morning:

A fairly significant rain event occurred through the overnight period.
Rainfall reports have been pretty sparse given the fact that it is O'Dark
Thirty. We should get more reports by dawn. A few reports have trickled
in with 3.00" in Hugoton, 1.50" by Richfield, and a few flash flooding
reports. Here at the KDDC airport as of 07:24Z, we have had a measly
half of an inch. Southern Ford county and other areas probably saw 2"
to 4" via estimation from radar. Anyway, given the initial event, canceled
the Flood Watch and issued a Flash Flood Watch instead. So, why all
the precip? Well, an upper level wave, 850 hPa theta-e advection, pwats
around the 75th percentile, sfc-700 hPa upslope flow, and isentropic
lift was the impetus for MCS formation. For the rest of the early morning,
will taper precipitation probability percentage points west to east
via radar trends and HRRR guidance. FWIW, the 00Z NAM performed poorly
for the event.

Will carry the FF.A (Flash Flood Watch) until 18Z.

Today/tonight:

We should see some break in the precipitation from the morning activity
to possible additional activity later this afternoon as temporary subsidence
builds in the wake of the departing MCS. Forecast skew-t/log-p's show
pwats still in the 1.50-1.70" range this afternoon. A moist upslope
flow will also continue from the sfc up through 800 hPa. The main synoptic
wave mentioned in the synopsis will have translated over western Kansas by
afternoon, and this will provide some upper level support for additional
lift. The atmosphere will become unstable again with 1000-2000 J/kg
of SBCAPE. Low to mid level lapse rates are fairly moist adiabatic,
so the CAPE profile is fairly skinny. Bulk shear vectors are SW/40 KT.
All and all, tomorrow does not look that impressive for severe weather
(supercells etc). What does look more promising is another MCS. There
is significant questions in regarding convective initiation/placement.
The ECMWF and both cores of the WRF look reasonable. The atmosphere
could be "worked over" from the morning convection, so a lack of additional
activity is also possible. Anywho, will carry chance precipitation probabilities
this afternoon and ramp them up to likely region wide by tonight. Maximums
will be in the 70sF and minimums in the 60sF.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT WED AUG 7 2013

Medium range models indicate little change to the overall large
scale pattern through early next week with a low amplitude upper
level ridge remaining in place across the central and southern
Rockies. Early in the period, a significant upper level shortwave
is expected to eject out of the southern Rockies east-northeast
into the western high plains bringing the possibility for more
showers and thunderstorms to portions of western Kansas Thursday
night into early Friday. As the shortwave approaches, a prevailing
surface low across the Texas panhandle and an attendant frontal
boundary extending generally east across northern Oklahoma, will
provide increased lift within a low level convergence zone generally
along and just north of the Kansas border. Although the flow aloft
will remain fairly weak, a few showers and isolated thunderstorms
will be possible across much of southwest and central Kansas with
enough instability present as surface dewpoints remain well up into
the 60s(F).

A brief break in precip chances is expected generally Friday night
into Saturday as surface high pressure migrates southward into
western Kansas pushing a frontal boundary just to our south further
down into west Texas and southern Oklahoma. Chances for
thunderstorms will return to portions of western Kansas Sunday as
the weak upper level ridge begins to build across the Rockies
returning a westerly flow aloft to the western high plains. In
response, the frontal boundary well to our south is expected to
return northward providing the focus for thunderstorm development
across the region into early next week.

Below normal temperatures are likely Friday as the aforementioned
surface low in the Texas panhandle pushes off to the east setting up
a more north to northeasterly low level flow across western Kansas.
Slightly cooler air will filter down into western Kansas with H85
temperatures ranging from the mid teens(C) across central Kansas to
near 20C in far southwest Kansas. Along with increased clouds, look
for highs only up into the 70s(F) to possibly near 80F across much
of central and southwest Kansas Friday afternoon. A gradual warming
trend is then expected through the weekend as the upper level
ridging in the intermountain west begins to amplify. Highs back up
into the 80s(F) to near 90F are likely over the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT THU AUG 8 2013

MVFR cigs expected through the overnight with VFR cigs after 15Z
or so. NE-E 8-11 KT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  75  63  78  61 /  60  70  20  10
GCK  74  61  77  57 /  60  70  20  10
EHA  77  62  80  60 /  60  70  10  10
LBL  79  63  80  61 /  60  70  20  10
HYS  74  62  76  61 / 100  70  30  10
P28  80  67  81  65 / 100  80  30  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 1 PM CDT /Noon MDT/ this afternoon FOR
KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Sugden
SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...Sugden

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
312 AM CDT THU AUG 8 2013

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-090815-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
312 AM CDT THU AUG 8 2013 /212 AM MDT THU AUG 8 2013/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL...SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM CDT. SEE WEATHER MESSAGE
FOR MORE SPECIFIC DETAILS.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH
EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS ARE LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...OUTFLOW WINDS
TO 55 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND/OR FLASH FLOODING
ISSUES TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1117 PM CDT WED AUG 07 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0925 PM     HEAVY RAIN       4 WNW SYRACUSE          38.00N 101.83W
08/07/2013  M2.25 INCH       HAMILTON           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

GERARD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1136 PM CDT WED AUG 07 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1136 PM     HEAVY RAIN       4 E RICHFIELD           37.27N 101.71W
08/07/2013  M1.50 INCH       MORTON             KS   PUBLIC

&&

SUGDEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1137 PM CDT WED AUG 07 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1121 PM     HEAVY RAIN       HUGOTON                 37.18N 101.35W
08/07/2013  M3.00 INCH       STEVENS            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SUGDEN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1150 PM CDT WED AUG 7 2013

KSZ087-088-080530-
CLARK-MEADE-
1150 PM CDT WED AUG 7 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN MEADE AND NORTHERN
CLARK COUNTIES...

AT 1146 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FOWLER...MOVING EAST AT 20
MPH.

WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3747 9963 3716 9961 3719 10008 3744 10010
TIME...MOT...LOC 0450Z 265DEG 18KT 3729 10005

GERARD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
200 AM CDT THU AUG 8 2013

KSZ066-079>081-089-090-080800-
BARBER-COMANCHE-EDWARDS-KIOWA-PRATT-STAFFORD-
200 AM CDT THU AUG 8 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BARBER...KIOWA...NORTHEASTERN
COMANCHE...PRATT...SOUTHERN EDWARDS AND SOUTHERN STAFFORD COUNTIES...

AT 157 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
GREENSBURG TO 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BELVIDERE TO 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
AETNA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

WINDS UP TO 55 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

RESIDENTS IN BARBER...KIOWA...NORTHEASTERN COMANCHE...PRATT...
SOUTHERN EDWARDS AND SOUTHERN STAFFORD COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
CITIES OF BELVIDERE...SUN CITY...GREENSBURG...CROFT...HARDTNER...LAKE
CITY...HAVILAND...KIOWA...WELLSFORD AND COATS...SHOULD MONITOR THE
WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE
PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

LAT...LON 3699 9835 3699 9894 3733 9910 3749 9953
      3792 9942 3793 9847 3739 9846 3738 9834
TIME...MOT...LOC 0700Z 224DEG 32KT 3752 9934 3739 9902
          3703 9885

UMSCHEID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
229 AM CDT THU AUG 08 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0930 PM     FLASH FLOOD      SYRACUSE                37.98N 101.75W
08/07/2013                   HAMILTON           KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            THERE WERE SEVERAL LOCATIONS ALONG HIGHWAY 27 NORTH AND
            SOUTH OF SYRACUSE WHERE STANDING WATER WAS REPORTED TO BE
            BLOCKING THE HIGHWAY FOLLOWING THREE TO FIVE INCHES OF
            RAIN.

1000 PM     FLASH FLOOD      HUGOTON                 37.18N 101.35W
08/07/2013                   STEVENS            KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER WAS FLOWING CURB TO CURB ON CANAL STREET IN HUGOTON
            AND SEVERAL CARS WERE REPORTED TO HAVE BEEN STALLED IN
            HIGH WATER AS WELL.

0220 AM     FLASH FLOOD      7 N MINNEOLA            37.55N 100.02W
08/08/2013                   FORD               KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER WAS FLOWING ACROSS HIGHWAY 283 AT WILDFIRE ROAD.

0228 AM     FLASH FLOOD      BLOOM                   37.48N 99.88W
08/08/2013                   FORD               KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER WAS REPORTED TO BE RUNNING ACROSS STREETS IN BLOOM

&&

UMSCHEID