Severe Thunderstorm Warning 70, NWS Cheyenne, WY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
226 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS NOW OCCURRING OVER THE MT NS OF
SE WYOMING BUT NOT MAKING MUCH PROGRESS EASTWARD AT THIS TIME.
EXPECT ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE SOME FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AS WELL AS SPREAD OVER MAINLY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE MOVING OUT. A FEW SEVERE STORMS STILL
A DECENT BET. CLEARING OUT LATER TONIGHT.

LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON
AND EVENING CONVECTION EXPECTED. SEVERE PARAMETERS NOT AS
FAVORABLE AS SHEAR SHOULD BE LESS AND DRIER AIR SHOULD MOVE
FARTHER INTO THE PLAINS BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH. CLEAR TUESDAY
NIGHT THOUGH A FEW LINGERING STORMS MAY BE OVER THE PANHANDLE IN
THE EARLY EVENING. DRY AND WARMER WEDS AS SW UPPER FLOW SPREADS
OVER THE CWA WITH QUITE BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER WESTERN PARTS OF
THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

SURFACE TROUGH OUT IN THE PANHANDLE THURSDAY MORNING IS FORECAST
TO SHIFT EAST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY LOOKS DRY FOR ALL AREAS WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
TO +16C. SHOULD PROVIDE A PRETTY GOOD CAP ON CONVECTION.

BY THURSDAY EVENING...ENERGY FROM THE UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE
IDAHO PANHANDLE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO WESTERN WYOMING AND ANOTHER
LEE SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE PANHANDLE. THOUGH THE GFS
REMAINS DRY...THE NEW ECMWF CONCENTRATING QPF OVER THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE AND EASTERN NIOBRARA COUNTIES FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
CONTINUED THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN THIS AREA FOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

BOUNDARY STAYS OVER THE PANHANDLE AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS INTO
NORTHERN MONTANA. ENERGY FROM THIS LOW SHOULD GIVE US ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. HOPEFULLY...FOLKS GET SOME BENEFICIAL RAINS FROM THESE
THUNDERSTORMS AS WE ALL COULD USE SOME RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 115 AM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

STRATUS STARTING TO BREAK UP LATE THIS MORNING WITH VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A RAPID EROSION OF STRATUS BLANKET NEAR
CHEYENNE. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR CONVECTION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. STARTING TO GET SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING JUST SOUTH
OF KCDR WITH A MOVEMENT TO THE SOUTHEAST AT 20 TO 30 MPH ON THE
CELLS. THINK THAT THIS STORM WILL PASS NORTH OF KAIA IN THE NEXT
30 TO 45 MINUTES. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS STILL LOOK POSSIBLE AFTER
THE 20-21Z TIME FRAME FOR AIRPORTS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE HAZARDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

NO CONCERNS SEEN THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. CONCERNS WILL INCREASE OUT WEDNESDAY AS
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE. AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WEDNESDAY
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. CONCERNS CONTINUE THE
MID AND LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN AND GUSTY
WINDS OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOONS. FUELS CURRENTLY STILL NON-CRITICAL
BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH. OTHERWISE DRY AND WARMER WEATHER EXPECTED
TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...CLAYCOMB
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...RE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1045 AM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

NEZ002-095-WYZ101>105-109>116-181200-
DAWES-NORTH SIOUX-CONVERSE COUNTY LOWER ELEVATIONS-
NIOBRARA COUNTY-NORTH LARAMIE RANGE-
FERRIS/SEMINOE/SHIRLEY MOUNTAINS-SHIRLEY BASIN-
CENTRAL CARBON COUNTY-NORTH SNOWY RANGE FOOTHILLS-
SOUTHWEST CARBON COUNTY-SIERRA MADRE RANGE-
UPPER NORTH PLATTE RIVER BASIN-SNOWY RANGE-LARAMIE VALLEY-
SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE-
1045 AM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE WESTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE...EAST CENTRAL WYOMING...SOUTH CENTRAL WYOMING AND
SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
LINGER THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS
MAY BE STRONG WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGIC...AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHEYENNE

NEZ003-019>021-054-055-096-WYZ106>108-117>119-181200-
BOX BUTTE-SCOTTS BLUFF-BANNER-MORRILL-KIMBALL-CHEYENNE-
SOUTH SIOUX-CENTRAL LARAMIE RANGE AND SOUTHWEST PLATTE COUNTY-
EAST PLATTE COUNTY-GOSHEN COUNTY-SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE FOOTHILLS-
CENTRAL LARAMIE COUNTY-EAST LARAMIE COUNTY-
1045 AM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE WESTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE BY THIS EVENING.
SOME OF THE STORMS WILL BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREATS. AN ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT
BE RULED OUT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING.

&&

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGIC...AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHEYENNE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
221 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

WYZ118-119-172100-
CENTRAL LARAMIE COUNTY WY-EAST LARAMIE COUNTY WY-
221 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN LARAMIE COUNTY UNTIL
300 PM MDT...

AT 217 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HILLSDALE...OR 10 MILES
EAST OF CHEYENNE...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  HILLSDALE...
  CARPENTER...
  BURNS...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 80 IN WYOMING BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 369 AND
401.

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

IN ADDITION...THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR
LOCAL RADIO AND TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 4131 10408 4104 10409 4101 10467 4125 10469
TIME...MOT...LOC 2021Z 256DEG 20KT 4112 10458

MSW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
249 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0240 PM     HAIL             7 SW BURNS              41.12N 104.45W
06/17/2013  M0.25 INCH       LARAMIE            WY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ALSO HEAVY RAIN.

&&

MWEILAND

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
254 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0433 AM     HAIL             7 N LUSK                42.86N 104.45W
06/17/2013  E1.50 INCH       NIOBRARA           WY   PUBLIC

&&

REMANUEL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
301 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0259 PM     HAIL             BURNS                   41.19N 104.36W
06/17/2013  E0.50 INCH       LARAMIE            WY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL COVERED THE GROUND.

&&

DDEAL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
301 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

WYZ103-106-172145-
CENTRAL LARAMIE RANGE AND SOUTHWEST PLATTE COUNTY WY-NORTH LARAMIE
RANGE WY-
301 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN PLATTE...EXTREME SOUTHERN
CONVERSE AND NORTHEASTERN ALBANY COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM MDT...

AT 300 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR FRIEND PARK CAMPGROUND...OR 29 MILES
NORTHWEST OF WHEATLAND...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAIN.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHEASTERN ALBANY AND WESTERN PLATTE
COUNTIES.

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4218 10517 4199 10542 4222 10565 4234 10548
TIME...MOT...LOC 2101Z 315DEG 3KT 4222 10548

MSW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
303 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0302 PM     HAIL             BURNS                   41.19N 104.36W
06/17/2013  E0.50 INCH       LARAMIE            WY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

DDEAL