Severe Thunderstorm Warning 26, NWS Cheyenne, WY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
338 PM MDT MON MAY 27 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MDT MON MAY 27 2013

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS WESTERN
NEBRASKA LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. HAVE ONLY
HAD ONE OR TWO STRONG STORMS SO FAR...WITH THE CURRENT STORMS
PRODUCING QUITE A BIT OF LIGHTNING. CURRENT DEWPOINTS ARE STILL IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE OF
NEBRASKA...SO WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. SOME
DRIER AIR IS PUSHING INTO THE TORRINGTON AND SCOTTSBLUFF AREA WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS. MORE ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING FURTHER TO THE WEST
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS AS WELL. MAIN
CONCERNS ARE FOR GUSTY STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

MODELS SHOW DRIER AIR PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD
LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH LOW STRATUS CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE TONIGHT WITH COOL MINIMUM TEMPERATURES.

FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ALL MODELS INDICATE A MORE WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE MAIN PACIFIC UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES INTO WYOMING. FOCUS ON TUESDAY WILL BE THE
HIGH PLAINS AS A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE...AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH...EJECTS
NORTHEAST ACROSS HIGH PLAINS OF COLORADO AND WYOMING IN THE
AFTERNOON. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT WITH
CAPE VALUES OVER 1000 J/KG AND PW/S AROUND 1 INCH. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER EAST OF A LINE FROM CHEYENNE TO
DOUGLAS WYOMING. HOWEVER...THE LAST FEW EVENTS HAVE ONLY RESULTED
IN A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...SO WILL NOT WORD THE FORECAST
TOO AGGRESSIVE AT THIS TIME. HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS AS MODELS ARE SHOWING HIGH QPF VALUES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE OVER ONE INCH OF RAIN IN A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE LOWER ON
WEDNESDAY AS COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION...ALTHOUGH THE
THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL STILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER...AND
GENERALLY IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S. PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL
RETURN TO THE HIGH PLAINS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN
NEBRASKA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM MDT MON MAY 27 2013

UPPER TROF/LOW WILL SWING EAST OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY
BUT SOME WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW
STORMS GOING OVER AT LEAST THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. SECONDARY UPPER TROF WILL THEN PASS ACROSS FRIDAY
NIGHT BRINGING A COOL PUSH OF AIR. SFC UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD SET OFF
SOME SHOWERS SATURDAY. DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL THEN SET IN
FOR SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY UNDER A DRY WNW FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM MDT MON MAY 27 2013

SCTD MVFR CIGS OVER PARTS OF THE PANHANDLE LATE THIS MORNING SHOULD
BREAK UP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING OVER SE WY WITH SOMEWHAT MORE
COVERAGE OVER THE PANHANDLE.  ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING.
SOME RETURN OF MAINLY MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT OVER THE
PANHANDLE BUT SHOULD NOT BE AS EXTENSIVE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 253 PM MDT MON MAY 27 2013

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN HIGH PLAINS. ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BEFORE COOLER AIR MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN
NEBRASKA. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE LOW DUE TO GREEN FUELS AND
HIGHER HUMIDITIES WITH RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND
END OF THIS WEEK AS A STRONGER PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM PUSHES ACROSS
THE REGION STARTING ON TUESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY...LIKELY
BRINGING WETTING RAINS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...RE
FIRE WEATHER...TJT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
201 PM MDT MON MAY 27 2013

WYZ101>119-282015-
CONVERSE COUNTY LOWER ELEVATIONS-NIOBRARA COUNTY-
NORTH LARAMIE RANGE-FERRIS/SEMINOE/SHIRLEY MOUNTAINS-
SHIRLEY BASIN-CENTRAL LARAMIE RANGE AND SOUTHWEST PLATTE COUNTY-
EAST PLATTE COUNTY-GOSHEN COUNTY-CENTRAL CARBON COUNTY-
NORTH SNOWY RANGE FOOTHILLS-SOUTHWEST CARBON COUNTY-
SIERRA MADRE RANGE-UPPER NORTH PLATTE RIVER BASIN-SNOWY RANGE-
LARAMIE VALLEY-SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE-SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE FOOTHILLS-
CENTRAL LARAMIE COUNTY-EAST LARAMIE COUNTY-
201 PM MDT MON MAY 27 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTY WINDS AROUND 40 MPH POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS OF
WYOMING...OTHERWISE THE PROBABILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGIC...AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHEYENNE

NEZ002-003-019>021-054-055-095-096-282015-
DAWES-BOX BUTTE-SCOTTS BLUFF-BANNER-MORRILL-KIMBALL-CHEYENNE-
NORTH SIOUX-SOUTH SIOUX-
201 PM MDT MON MAY 27 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE WESTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN
NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE INTO LATE THIS
EVENING. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM
MDT THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NEEDED TONIGHT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGIC...AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHEYENNE

TT

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
338 PM MDT MON MAY 27 2013

NEZ003-096-272230-
BOX BUTTE NE-SOUTH SIOUX NE-
338 PM MDT MON MAY 27 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN SIOUX AND NORTHWESTERN
BOX BUTTE COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM MDT...

AT 334 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES WEST OF FLAHERTYS CORNER...OR 33 MILES
NORTH OF SCOTTSBLUFF...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
FLAHERTYS CORNER AROUND 350 PM MDT.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM MDT. BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV
STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 4243 10316 4229 10303 4227 10360 4244 10363
TIME...MOT...LOC 2138Z 257DEG 17KT 4233 10352

RUBIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
342 PM MDT MON MAY 27 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0224 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     6 S HARRISBURG          41.46N 103.74W
05/27/2013                   BANNER             NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            A LITTLE PEA SIZE HAIL AND 0.03 HUNDREDTHS INCH RAIN.

&&

DDEAL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
345 PM MDT MON MAY 27 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0344 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 E GURLEY              41.32N 102.92W
05/27/2013  E50 MPH          CHEYENNE           NE   STORM CHASER

            STORM CHASER ESTIMATED 50 MPH WIND GUSTS WITH THE GUST
            FRONT AND MARBLE SIZE HAIL

&&

TTRUDEL