Severe Thunderstorm Warning 230, NWS Cheyenne, WY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
550 PM MDT SUN AUG 11 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT SUN AUG 11 2013

A SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER
THE CWA WILL BECOME MORE INTENSE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...MAINLY
OVER THE EAST PART OF THE CWA. THE ATMOSPHERE IS MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AND STORMS WILL BE AIDED BY A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE LARAMIE
RANGE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS ALSO MOVING
SLOWLY EAST FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO. THE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG
AND EVEN SEVERE OVER THE EAST PART OF THE CWA THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING. SOME OF THE ACTIVITY WILL LINGER ALL NIGHT OVER THE WEST
PART OF THE CWA. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL POSSIBLY FORM OVER THE
PANHANDLE LATER TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH MID MORNING MONDAY IN
THE LIGHT AND MOIST EASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER WIND FLOW.

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN SIMILAR OVER THE ROCKIES THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE JUST WEST OF THE CWA WITH
SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING OVER THE CWA. THE MOST PROMINENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROUND THE RIDGE MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN OVER
THE CWA ON TUESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURNS IN FORCE PER THE MODELS ON TUESDAY. THE RESULTING
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO AN INCH OR MORE JUST INSIDE
THE EASTERN WYOMING BORDER. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES SLOWLY EAST
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE HEADING BACK TO THE LARAMIE RANGE
ON TUESDAY. SCATTERED TO LIKELY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY OVER THE CWA WITH MANY
STORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY.
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE EAST PART OF THE CWA. THE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT SUN AUG 11 2013

TUESDAY NIGHT...AT LEAST SCATTERED EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF
I-25 AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST ATOP A MOIST LOW AND MID
LEVEL ATMOSPHERE...AIDED BY MOIST UPSLOPE MECHANICAL LIFT.

WEDNESDAY...MOIST ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AND
WITH ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE NEAR PEAK HEATING AND UPSLOPE
LIFT...WILL SEE SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF I-25.

THURSDAY...RIDGING ALOFT STRENGTHENS. WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT
INCREASING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...CIN...AND LESS LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE MUCH LESS.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY...RIDGING AND WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL SUPPRESS
THUNDERSTORM FORMATION. WARM TEMPERATURES WILL RESUME WITH LESS
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 548 PM MDT SUN AUG 11 2013

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH MID TO LATE EVE. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY
BE STRONG WITH GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...AS WELL AS THE POSSIBILITY
OF SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL OVER MOST TERMINALS...ALTHOUGH BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS CANNOT
BE RULED OUT IN +TSRA. KAIA AND KCDR AND OTHER AREAS NEAR THE PINE
RIDGE MAY SEE MVFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS AFTER 09Z
MON...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING AFTER SUNRISE. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEAST WY AND
THE WESTERN NE PANHANDLE ON MON AFTN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT SUN AUG 11 2013

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MINIMAL OVER THE CWA
THROUGH THE MID PART OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
AND THERE WILL BE DAILY CHANCES OF MAINLY LATE DAY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THROUGH THAT TIME...THE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL BE LOWEST ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF CARBON
COUNTY. VALUES IN THAT AREA WILL RANGE FROM 15 TO 20 PERCENT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL ALSO BE FAIRLY LIGHT DURING
THAT TIME...OUTSIDE OF THE THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE
OVER THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK AND CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL DURING THAT TIME.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...WEILAND
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...HAMMER
FIRE WEATHER...WEILAND

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
328 PM MDT SUN AUG 11 2013

WYZ101>119-121130-
CONVERSE COUNTY LOWER ELEVATIONS-NIOBRARA COUNTY-
NORTH LARAMIE RANGE-FERRIS/SEMINOE/SHIRLEY MOUNTAINS-
SHIRLEY BASIN-CENTRAL LARAMIE RANGE AND SOUTHWEST PLATTE COUNTY-
EAST PLATTE COUNTY-GOSHEN COUNTY-CENTRAL CARBON COUNTY-
NORTH SNOWY RANGE FOOTHILLS-SOUTHWEST CARBON COUNTY-
SIERRA MADRE RANGE-UPPER NORTH PLATTE RIVER BASIN-SNOWY RANGE-
LARAMIE VALLEY-SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE-SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE FOOTHILLS-
CENTRAL LARAMIE COUNTY-EAST LARAMIE COUNTY-
328 PM MDT SUN AUG 11 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING OVER
SOUTHEAST WYOMING. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS...MAINLY NEAR THE
NEBRASKA BORDER. THE STORMS WILL ALSO BE SLOW MOVING AND PRODUCE A
PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL...RESULTING IN THE POSSIBILITY OF MINOR
FLOODING IN LOW LYING AND URBAN AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH THE EARLY NEAR THE NEBRASKA
BORDER.

&&

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGIC...AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHEYENNE

NEZ002-003-019>021-054-055-095-096-121130-
DAWES-BOX BUTTE-SCOTTS BLUFF-BANNER-MORRILL-KIMBALL-CHEYENNE-
NORTH SIOUX-SOUTH SIOUX-
328 PM MDT SUN AUG 11 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE WESTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING OVER THE
WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME STRONG OR
SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON WITH HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. THE STORMS
WILL ALSO BE SLOW MOVING AND PRODUCE A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL...
RESULTING IN THE POSSIBILITY OF MINOR FLOODING IN LOW LYING AND
URBAN AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW
AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGIC...AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHEYENNE

WEILAND

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
618 PM MDT SUN AUG 11 2013

NEZ002-120115-
DAWES NE-
618 PM MDT SUN AUG 11 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN DAWES COUNTY UNTIL 715
PM MDT...

AT 616 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF CHADRON
AIRPORT...OR 14 MILES NORTHWEST OF CHADRON...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  CHADRON...
  CHADRON AIRPORT...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS... FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

&&

LAT...LON 4273 10291 4290 10346 4300 10344 4300 10285
TIME...MOT...LOC 0018Z 279DEG 6KT 4296 10321

COX

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