Severe Thunderstorm Warning 206, NWS Cheyenne, WY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
303 PM MDT THU AUG 1 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 PM MDT THU AUG 1 2013

ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH
SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. DEVELOPMENT HAS ALREADY
OCCURRED OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. BATCH OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER ALBANY COUNTY WILL SPREAD
EAST INTO THE PLAINS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS CONVECTION
SHOULD HELP ERODE IF NOT BREAK THE CAP. AT ANY RATE...SHOULD SEE
THE CAP BREAK SOMETIME THIS AFTERNOON WITH STORMS DEVELOPING AND
EVENTUALLY BECOMING SEVERE.

MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL BUT DAMAGING WINDS
AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
VERY JUICY AIR IN PLACE AT THIS TIME WITH DEW POINTS MAINLY IN THE
50S TO LOW 60S EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. THE ONE EXCEPTION BEING
AROUND CHEYENNE WHERE A DRY PUNCH DROPPED THE DEW POINTS INTO THE
30S. MU CAPES FROM CURRENT ANALYSIS RUNNING BETWEEN 2000-3000
J/KG...NEARLY DOUBLE THAT OF YESTERDAY BUT WIND PROFILES ARE
SIMILAR. IMPRESSIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH INCREASING WINDS FROM
THE BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGH THE EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL. THIS WILL
SUPPORT SUPER-CELL THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG UPDRAFTS. HAIL SIZES
COULD BE VERY LARGE...CERTAINLY HAIL OVER 2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE AND
COULD SEE A FEW STORMS PRODUCING BASEBALL SIZED HAIL. WIND THREAT
APPEARS TO BE RATHER STANDARD WITH 60-70 MPH WINDS. ALSO...THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR TORNADOES. CURRENTLY A COUPLE BOUNDARIES IN PLACE
OVER THE AREA WHICH COULD BE A FOCUS FOR TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT.
ALSO EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 15
MPH BY THIS EVENING. THIS COULD ENHANCE THE TORNADO THREAT FOR A
TIME THIS EVENING. THE HIGHEST TORNADIC THREAT APPEARS TO BE NEAR
A SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY IN THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND
ADJACENT PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL WY EARLY THIS EVENING.

MODELS ARE NOW PUSHING THE MAIN AREA OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR TOMORROW. THIS WILL
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR FRIDAY.
MAINLY GARDEN VARIETY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY WITH THE
ONLY POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE MAY BE THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
BUT THAT DEVELOP ON WHERE THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY RESIDES. BOUNDARY
IS FORECAST TO SLAM BACK TO THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT. COULD SEE SOME
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AS THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON BUT TOUGH TO GUAGE THE STRENGTH AT THIS POINT...BUT
BASED ON CURRENT MODELS COULD SEE A FEW MORE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM MDT THU AUG 1 2013

AN UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO HOLD JUST WEST OF THE CWA FOR MUCH
OF THIS PERIOD...EXTENDING BASICALLY FROM TEXAS NNW JUST WEST OF
THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN CHAIN. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE UNDER THIS RIDGE FROM THE DESERT SW ACROSS THE REGION WHICH
WILL KEEP AT LEAST WIDELY SCTD MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CONVECTION GOING ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH SUNDAY THEN IT MIGHT
BECOME MORE ISOLATED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE MOISTURE DECREASES A
BIT. A DECENT PUSH OF COOLER AIR IS DEPICTED TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION MIDWEEK AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
STORMS WITH RESULTANT UPSLOPE PATTERN. GFS MAY BE OVERDONE WITH
ITS QPF BUT AT LEAST SCTD POPS LOOK IN ORDER THEN. TEMPERATURES
WARM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE TRENDING DOWN WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1118 AM MDT THU AUG 1 2013

VFR SHOULD PREVAIL OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.  A WEAK SFC
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO EAST CENTRAL WY INTO THE SOUTHERN NEB
PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON.  SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTRMS EXPECTED TO FORM
OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST THROUGH THIS EVENING.
BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE AROUND THESE STORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 208 PM MDT THU AUG 1 2013

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MAIN CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINS WILL OCCUR
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA TODAY AND FOR FAR EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE DISTRICT ON FRIDAY. FURTHER WEST...SOMEWHAT DRIER AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES LOOK TO DROP INTO
THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 30S WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 30 MPH
TODAY AND FRIDAY. LIGHTER WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE WEEKEND.
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE MORE WIDELY SCATTERED IN THIS AREA
TODAY...WITH LESS COVERAGE ANTICIPATED FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...LIEBL
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...RE
FIRE WEATHER...LIEBL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
318 PM MDT THU AUG 1 2013

WYZ103>106-109>119-021045-
NORTH LARAMIE RANGE-FERRIS/SEMINOE/SHIRLEY MOUNTAINS-
SHIRLEY BASIN-CENTRAL LARAMIE RANGE AND SOUTHWEST PLATTE COUNTY-
CENTRAL CARBON COUNTY-NORTH SNOWY RANGE FOOTHILLS-
SOUTHWEST CARBON COUNTY-SIERRA MADRE RANGE-
UPPER NORTH PLATTE RIVER BASIN-SNOWY RANGE-LARAMIE VALLEY-
SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE-SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE FOOTHILLS-
CENTRAL LARAMIE COUNTY-EAST LARAMIE COUNTY-
318 PM MDT THU AUG 1 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL WYOMING...
SOUTH CENTRAL WYOMING AND SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED. A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME...HOWEVER LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE STORMS THIS WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE REQUIRED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGIC...AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHEYENNE

NEZ002-003-019>021-054-055-095-096-WYZ101-102-107-108-021045-
DAWES-BOX BUTTE-SCOTTS BLUFF-BANNER-MORRILL-KIMBALL-CHEYENNE-
NORTH SIOUX-SOUTH SIOUX-CONVERSE COUNTY LOWER ELEVATIONS-
NIOBRARA COUNTY-EAST PLATTE COUNTY-GOSHEN COUNTY-
318 PM MDT THU AUG 1 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE WESTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE AND EAST CENTRAL WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE UNTIL 10 PM MDT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST AND
EAST CENTRAL WYOMING...AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SOME STORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS...ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM DOUGLAS TO WHEATLAND
TO KIMBALL. HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF TENNIS BALLS IS POSSIBLE SOME
STORMS...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL OVER THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME...HOWEVER LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE STORMS THIS WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 2 PM AND 10 PM.

&&

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGIC...AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHEYENNE

LIEBL

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
433 PM MDT THU AUG 1 2013

NEZ054-WYZ118-119-012330-
CENTRAL LARAMIE COUNTY WY-EAST LARAMIE COUNTY WY-KIMBALL NE-
433 PM MDT THU AUG 1 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN LARAMIE AND WESTERN
KIMBALL COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM MDT...

AT 428 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF HILLSDALE...OR 23 MILES
NORTHEAST OF CHEYENNE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
PINE BLUFFS AROUND 520 PM MDT.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 80 IN WYOMING BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 391 AND
402.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 80 IN NEBRASKA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 5.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM MDT FOR THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. BE
CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL
CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 4126 10390 4101 10406 4129 10447 4137 10442
TIME...MOT...LOC 2232Z 298DEG 20KT 4129 10438

RUBIN

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
444 PM MDT THU AUG 1 2013

NEZ002-003-012330-
BOX BUTTE NE-DAWES NE-
444 PM MDT THU AUG 1 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN DAWES AND NORTHERN BOX
BUTTE COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM MDT...

AT 441 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 12 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF HAY SPRINGS TO 10 MILES WEST OF BOX BUTTE CAMPGROUND...AND MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  BOX BUTTE CAMPGROUND...
  BOX BUTTE DAM...
  MARSLAND...

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR THIS AREA. BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV
STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

&&

LAT...LON 4234 10329 4256 10341 4271 10277 4270 10276
      4249 10277 4244 10274 4237 10274 4236 10275
TIME...MOT...LOC 2244Z 307DEG 13KT 4253 10281 4248 10330

HAMMER/RUBIN