Severe Thunderstorm Warning 200, NWS Cheyenne, WY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
226 PM MDT WED JUL 31 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT WED JUL 31 2013

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE
DISSIPATING. MOST ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE BUT BASED
ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS...WIND SHEAR PROFILES AND SPC MODEL
MESOSCALE ANALYSIS...NOW THINKING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME
SEVERE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AND INTO THE PANHANDLE OF
NEBRASKA. BUFKIT SOUNDING SHOWING 40 TO 50 KTS OF 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR WITH THE STRONGEST SHEAR ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF
FORECAST AREA COUNTIES...SO DEFINETLY SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS.
THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE STORMS TODAY IS THE LACK OF
CAPE...BUT BASED ON CURRENT SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS MU CAPES RANGE
BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG THERE MAY BE MORE AVAILABLE ENERGY THAN
PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. BASICALLY CAPE VALUES ARE 500 TO 1000
ABOVE WHAT THE 12Z NAM AND GFS INDICATED FOR TODAY. WITH DEW
POINTS MAINLY IN THE 50S AND EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TO INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...FEELING MORE CONFIDENT IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. MAIN SEVERE THREAT
LOOKS TO BE LARGE HAIL BUT 60 TO 70 MPH WIND GUSTS MAY BE
POSSIBLE. TORNADO THREAT IS LOW BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

ALTHROUGH MOST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DIE OFF BY LATE THIS
EVENING A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
INTO THE OVERNIGHT. MAIN CHANCE WILL BE WITH AN INCREASING LOW
LEVEL JET AND MIDLEVEL THETAE ADVECTION. NOSE OF THE JET IS
EXPECTED TO BE OVER NIOBRARA AND GOSHEN COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST
WYOMING AND INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.
ELEVATED CAPE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG THE NOSE OF THE LOW
LEVEL JET AND WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 50 KTS...SEVERE
THUNDESTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING LARGE
HAIL.

THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE OR SHORTLY
THERE AFTER BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOWING 2000 TO 3000 J/KG CAPE AND A LIFTED
INDEX OF -5 TO -7 NEAR THE WYOMING NEBRASKA BORDER AND INTO THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL AGAIN BE SUPPORTIVE OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. FRIDAY MAY BE A REPEAT OF THURSDAY WITH A
SIMILAR SYNOPTIC SETUP.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT WED JUL 31 2013

FAIRLY TYPICAL EARLY AUGUST WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA DURING
THE PERIOD WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AND ALMOST DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND TSTRMS. THE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A NEARLY STATIONARY
UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKYS WITH MONSOONAL
MOISTURE CONTINUING TO RIDE UP THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS THE
REGION. WEAK IMPULSES MOVING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER HIGH WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM TIME TO TIME AND AID
CONVECTION. SOME DRYING MAY OCCUR EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WOULD
REDUCE THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION BUT STILL LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH
MOISTURE AROUND TO KEEP IT GOING ON AN ISOLATED BASIS IN SOME
AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1118 AM MDT WED JUL 31 2013

VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.  WIDELY SCTD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND
MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AROUND ANY STORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 1154 AM MDT WED JUL 31 2013

NO CHANGES WITH AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUING THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND. MAINLY LOOKING AT AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...LIEBL
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...RE
FIRE WEATHER...LIEBL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1128 AM MDT WED JUL 31 2013

WYZ104-105-109>115-011730-
FERRIS/SEMINOE/SHIRLEY MOUNTAINS-SHIRLEY BASIN-
CENTRAL CARBON COUNTY-NORTH SNOWY RANGE FOOTHILLS-
SOUTHWEST CARBON COUNTY-SIERRA MADRE RANGE-
UPPER NORTH PLATTE RIVER BASIN-SNOWY RANGE-LARAMIE VALLEY-
1128 AM MDT WED JUL 31 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN
SOUTH CENTRAL WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SMALL
HAIL...GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF MODERATE RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY
THE STRONGEST STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG AND
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL WYOMING.

&&

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGIC...AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHEYENNE

NEZ002-003-019>021-054-055-095-096-WYZ101>103-106>108-116>119-
011730-
DAWES-BOX BUTTE-SCOTTS BLUFF-BANNER-MORRILL-KIMBALL-CHEYENNE-
NORTH SIOUX-SOUTH SIOUX-CONVERSE COUNTY LOWER ELEVATIONS-
NIOBRARA COUNTY-NORTH LARAMIE RANGE-
CENTRAL LARAMIE RANGE AND SOUTHWEST PLATTE COUNTY-
EAST PLATTE COUNTY-GOSHEN COUNTY-SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE-
SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE FOOTHILLS-CENTRAL LARAMIE COUNTY-
EAST LARAMIE COUNTY-
1128 AM MDT WED JUL 31 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE WESTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN OCCUR
OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS AND WIND GUST UP TO 70
MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEARLY EVERY
DAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
FOR SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.

&&

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGIC...AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHEYENNE

LIEBL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
242 PM MDT WED JUL 31 2013

WYZ115>117-312145-
LARAMIE VALLEY WY-SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE WY-SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE
FOOTHILLS WY-
242 PM MDT WED JUL 31 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN LARAMIE AND EASTERN
ALBANY COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM MDT...

AT 238 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BALDY PEAK...OR 12 MILES
NORTH OF LARAMIE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
HORSE CREEK AROUND 325 PM MDT.

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4144 10503 4118 10515 4146 10562 4152 10559
TIME...MOT...LOC 2042Z 295DEG 22KT 4147 10555

RUBIN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
249 PM MDT WED JUL 31 2013

WYZ108-118-119-312145-
CENTRAL LARAMIE COUNTY WY-EAST LARAMIE COUNTY WY-GOSHEN COUNTY WY-
249 PM MDT WED JUL 31 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN LARAMIE AND SOUTHERN
GOSHEN COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM MDT...

AT 246 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES WEST OF GUN BARREL...OR 24 MILES
NORTHEAST OF CHEYENNE...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
GUN BARREL AROUND 315 PM MDT.
MERIDEN REST AREA AROUND 325 PM MDT.

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

&&

LAT...LON 4168 10423 4130 10411 4139 10459 4145 10460
TIME...MOT...LOC 2049Z 258DEG 15KT 4143 10451

RUBIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
302 PM MDT WED JUL 31 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0258 PM     HAIL             20 W ALBIN              41.42N 104.49W
07/31/2013  M0.25 INCH       LARAMIE            WY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HEAVY RAIN WAS ALSO FALLING.

&&

MWEILAND

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
307 PM MDT WED JUL 31 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0258 PM     HAIL             20 W ALBIN              41.42N 104.49W
07/31/2013  M0.88 INCH       LARAMIE            WY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HEAVY RAIN WAS ALSO FALLING.

&&

MWEILAND

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