Severe Thunderstorm Warning 185, NWS Cheyenne, WY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
218 PM MDT WED JUL 24 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 215 PM MDT WED JUL 24 2013

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING OVER MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH SOME
STRONG TO SEVERE CELLS ALREADY PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL...
STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE PLAINS. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH 441 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT FOR AREAS EAST
OF INTERSTATE 25.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1138 AM MDT WED JUL 24 2013

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE BEST MID LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE
JUST OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA...ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO.
MODELS CONTINUE TO ROTATE THIS PLUME INTO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. LLVL MOISTURE IS EXCELLENT OVER THE
REGION WITH WIDESPREAD DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
STILL EXPECT STORM COVERAGE TO BE MUCH BETTER THIS AFTN AND
EVENING WITH THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT/PW VALUES INTERACTING WITH
A SHORTWAVE MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
DISCRETE SUPERCELLS...MAINLY OVER THE PANHANDLE WHERE MID LEVEL
FLOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE HIGHER. MAIN CONCERN WITH THE
STORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY WILL BE HEAVY RAIN AS STEERING FLOW
DECREASES TO 10-15 KT BY THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM MDT WED JUL 24 2013

CURRENTLY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL LAYS UP ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE
THIS MORNING. MONSOONAL MOISTURE LOOKS TO HAVE MADE IT AS FAR
NORTH AS NORTHERN JACKSON AND MOFFAT COUNTIES IN NORTHWESTERN
COLORADO THIS MORNING LOOKING AT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. DEW POINTS
HAVE RESPONDED FOR SOME AREAS WEST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE...PARTICULARLY NEAR THE COLORADO STATE LINE WITH 52 DEW POINTS AT
LARAMIE AND 53 AT VEDAUWOO. EVEN FURTHER WEST NEAR RAWLINS... A 48
TD IS BEING REPORTED 2AM. THERE STILL ARE SOME POCKETS OF DRY AIR
OUT THAT WAY...THE COW CREEK RAWS STILL REPORTING 2AM HUMIDITY OF
30 PERCENT...DIXON 42 PERCENT.

LATEST NAM SOUNDINGS SHOWING PWATS AT RAWLINS AT .46 INCHES AT
MIDNIGHT THIS MORNING...SLOWLY INCREASING TO .56 INCHES BY NOON
TIME. THINK THESE TYPES OF PWATS ARE STILL FAVORING SOME DRY
LIGHTNING OUT THERE AND WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP ISOLATED DRY
THUNDERSTORMS IN THEIR FORECAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

SOME DIFFERENCES IN HOW THE MODELS ARE HANDLING A SHORTWAVE COMING
UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING. THE NAM AND GFS BRING THIS
SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER SOUTHWESTERN
UTAH...INTO SOUTHWEST WYOMING AND SOUTH CENTRAL WYOMING BY 00Z
TODAY. THE NEW ECMWF RUN HOWEVER...KEEPS THE SHORTWAVE OVER
NORTHWESTERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN TRACKS IT ACROSS
NORTHERN COLORADO. THIS WOULD OBVIOUSLY HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
ON POPS TODAY. HAVE DID A BLEND OF THE THREE MODELS ON POPS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF POPS NEAR THE
COLORADO STATE LINE AND IN THE SNOWY/SIERRA MADRE RANGES. THESE
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

DO NOT THINK WE WILL SEE A SEVERE CONVECTIVE THREAT WITH THIS
MONSOONAL MOISTURE AS SHEAR VALUES PRETTY WEAK. THINKING MAIN
THREAT WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE HEAVY RAINFALL AS PWATS
INCREASING TO OVER 1.1 INCHES IN THE PANHANDLE TONIGHT...AROUND
.92 INCHES HERE AT CHEYENNE AND ABOUT THE SAME OUT BY RAWLINS.
STORM MOTIONS OVER 10KT THOUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST...SO EVEN
THOUGH WE HAVE THE HIGH PWATS...DO THINK THE STORMS WILL BE
MOVING. HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY FLASH FLOOD WATCHES. LATER SHIFTS
WILL NEED TO WATCH AREAS FOR TRAINING STORMS AND WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS POSSIBLY BEING ISSUED
TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS MONSOONAL
MOISTURE SPREADS NORTHEAST. ALL THREE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE LARAMIE RANGE AND POINTS EAST SEEING SEVERAL TENTHS
QPF...SO GOOD WETTING RAINS SHOULD FALL FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

AIR BEGINS DRYING OUT WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE FRIDAY AS RIDGE
AXIS BUILDS OVER WESTERN WYOMING AND SHUNTS THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE
EAST INTO NEBRASKA AND KANSAS. AREAS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WIND FLOW CREATING UPSLOPING CONDITIONS
ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)

ISSUED AT 315 AM MDT WED JUL 24 2013

MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXIST OVER THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY KEEPING AT LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING CONVECTION GOING OVER THE CWA...AIDED BY A WEAK SFC
BOUNDARY THAT WILL MEANDER OVER THE HIGH PLAINS JUST EAST OF THE
MTNS. SOME INDICATIONS THAT THIS MOISTURE WILL DECREASE SOME
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEING SUPPRESSED SOUTH AS THE WESTERLIES SAG A
BIT SOUTHWARD AND BRING IN A LITTLE DRIER AIR FROM THE WEST THUS
CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE THEN. OTHERWISE
TYPICAL LATE JULY TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD THROUGH THE PERIOD...
BEING PRETTY CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1138 AM MDT WED JUL 24 2013

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL
PUSH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS...MOST WIDESPREAD OVER THE PLAINS. BRIEF MVFR
VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS. WHILE THE TSTM
THREAT SHOULD END AFTER AROUND 03-06Z...ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM
MID LEVEL CLOUDS COULD PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 15 KT...EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF STORMS
WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT WED JUL 24 2013

MONSOONAL MOISTURE MAKING A PUSH TO THE NORTH OUT OF SOUTHERN
COLORADO AND SOUTHEASTERN UTAH THIS MORNING. DO THINK THERE IS
STILL A CHANCE FOR SOME ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SNOWY
AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES THIS MORNING BEFORE THE ATMOSPHERE
MOISTENS UP BY MID AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE THE DRY THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS TIME FRAME. BY THIS EVENING...REALLY RICH
MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS FORECAST OVER CARBON AND ALBANY COUNTIES
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER FORECASTS CLOSE TO AN INCH. SHOULD THIS
HAPPEN...THEN ANY FIRES THAT DO START WITH THE DRY LIGHTNING THIS
MORNING ARE MOST LIKELY GOING TO SEE WETTING RAINS ON THE ORDER OF
.25 TO .5 INCHES. MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO STAY OVER SOUTHEAST
WYOMING THROUGH FRIDAY WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINS EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR JUST ABOUT EVERYONE. THE EXCEPTION MAY
BE WESTERN CARBON COUNTY FRIDAY WHEN DRIER AIR LOOKS TO MOVE BACK
INTO THE AREA.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JAMSKI
SHORT TERM...CLAYCOMB
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...FINCH
FIRE WEATHER...CLAYCOMB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
214 PM MDT WED JUL 24 2013

NEZ002-003-019>021-054-055-095-096-WYZ102-106>108-117>119-252015-
DAWES-BOX BUTTE-SCOTTS BLUFF-BANNER-MORRILL-KIMBALL-CHEYENNE-
NORTH SIOUX-SOUTH SIOUX-NIOBRARA COUNTY-
CENTRAL LARAMIE RANGE AND SOUTHWEST PLATTE COUNTY-
EAST PLATTE COUNTY-GOSHEN COUNTY-SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE FOOTHILLS-
CENTRAL LARAMIE COUNTY-EAST LARAMIE COUNTY-
214 PM MDT WED JUL 24 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE WESTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY RAPIDLY THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL BE STRONG TO SEVERE PRODUCING
VERY HEAVY RAIN...LARGE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH. MINOR
FLOODING OF STREAMS AND CREEKS...AS WELL AS PONDING OF WATER
ON ROADWAYS WILL OCCUR AS A RESULT OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING...WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...BECOMING MORE ISOLATED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED BETWEEN 3 PM AND 9 PM.

&&

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGIC...AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHEYENNE

WYZ101-103>105-109>116-252015-
CONVERSE COUNTY LOWER ELEVATIONS-NORTH LARAMIE RANGE-
FERRIS/SEMINOE/SHIRLEY MOUNTAINS-SHIRLEY BASIN-
CENTRAL CARBON COUNTY-NORTH SNOWY RANGE FOOTHILLS-
SOUTHWEST CARBON COUNTY-SIERRA MADRE RANGE-
UPPER NORTH PLATTE RIVER BASIN-SNOWY RANGE-LARAMIE VALLEY-
SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE-
214 PM MDT WED JUL 24 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL WYOMING...
SOUTH CENTRAL WYOMING AND SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE AREA. GUSTY WINDS TO 45 MPH...SMALL HAIL
AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...BECOMING MORE ISOLATED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGIC...AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHEYENNE

JAMSKI

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