Severe Thunderstorm Warning 14, NWS Cheyenne, WY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
212 PM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013

18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE POOLING IN THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WITH MOST LOCATIONS OBSERVING DEW POINTS IN THE
50S. DRIER AIR JUST TO THE WEST OF THE WYOMING STATE LINE. THIS
BOUNDARY SHOULD BE THE FOCAL POINT FOR STRONG CONVECTION AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. SPC HAS THIS AREA IN SLIGHT RISK AND WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE WATCH LATER TODAY. CURRENT LAPS DATA
SHOWING CAPE VALUES ALREADY OVER 1500 IN THE PANHANDLE WITH SOME
AREAS OVER 3000.LIFTED INDEX OF MINUS 6.

RADAR BEGINNING TO SHOW STORMS DEVELOPING IN WESTERN CARBON COUNTY
AND IN NORTHERN PLATTE COUNTY. LIGHTNING DETECTION SHOWING SOME
STRIKES WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING GENERALLY EAST OF
INTERSTATE 25 AND ESPECIALLY IN THE PANHANDLE DEFINITELY SHOULD BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. IN EXTREME
EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA AN ISOLATED TORNADO WOULD NOT BE OUT OF
THE QUESTION.

STORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND SHOWERS PERSIST OVERNIGHT.

COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS UPPER
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP THE THE
AREA UNSETTLED AND WILL CONTINUE CHANCES OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013

UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
WRAPAROUND RAIN SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH CONTINUED COOLER TEMPERATURES. SHORTWAVE
RIDGING WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FOR WEDNESDAY WITH WARMER BUT MUCH
DRIER CONDITIONS...EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS OUT WEST. FLOW ALOFT WILL RETURN TO A MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY AND WILL INITIATE A MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM OUTBREAK FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS ALREADY OCCURRING OVER WESTERN CARBON
COUNTY WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE TO THE EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME STORMS OVER THE WESTERN NEBRASKA EXPECTED
EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE WITH VERY STRONG DOWNDRAFT WINDS...LARGE
HAIL...AND HEAVY RAIN THE MAIN THREATS AFTER 22Z. STORMS OVER
SOUTHEAST WYOMING WILL ALSO PRODUCE STRONG DOWNDRAFT WINDS ALONG
WITH SMALLER HAIL. MVFR TO BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
IN THE STORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NEBRASKA SITES. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN HIGH
PLAINS...AND WILL STEADILY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL THEN OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS EXPECTED IN THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 1241 PM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS UNSETTLED WEATHER SHOULD KEEP THE
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER AND CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...GRIFFITH
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...GRIFFITH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
155 PM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013

WYZ101>119-191715-
CONVERSE COUNTY LOWER ELEVATIONS-NIOBRARA COUNTY-
NORTH LARAMIE RANGE-FERRIS/SEMINOE/SHIRLEY MOUNTAINS-
SHIRLEY BASIN-CENTRAL LARAMIE RANGE AND SOUTHWEST PLATTE COUNTY-
EAST PLATTE COUNTY-GOSHEN COUNTY-CENTRAL CARBON COUNTY-
NORTH SNOWY RANGE FOOTHILLS-SOUTHWEST CARBON COUNTY-
SIERRA MADRE RANGE-UPPER NORTH PLATTE RIVER BASIN-SNOWY RANGE-
LARAMIE VALLEY-SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE-SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE FOOTHILLS-
CENTRAL LARAMIE COUNTY-EAST LARAMIE COUNTY-
1111 AM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL WYOMING...
SOUTH CENTRAL WYOMING AND SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FURTHER
WEST TOWARDS LARAMIE AND RAWLINS. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BECOME STRONG...WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE. SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...BUT IS POSSIBLE IN AREAS
CLOSE TO THE NEBRASKA BORDER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WYOMING...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORMS
WILL RETURN TO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING GENERALLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 25.

&&

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGIC...AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHEYENNE

NEZ002-003-019>021-054-055-095-096-191715-
DAWES-BOX BUTTE-SCOTTS BLUFF-BANNER-MORRILL-KIMBALL-CHEYENNE-
NORTH SIOUX-SOUTH SIOUX-
155 PM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013

...TORNADO WATCH 170 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM MDT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE WESTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ON
SATURDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THESE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY RESULT IN LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. AN
ISOLATED TORNADO IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION EAST OF HIGHWAY 385.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND
MONDAY ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. ALTHOUGH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE...SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL MOST
LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGIC...AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHEYENNE

GRIFFITH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
351 PM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013

NEZ002-182245-
DAWES NE-
351 PM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN DAWES COUNTY UNTIL 445 PM
MDT...

AT 346 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CRAWFORD...OR 26 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF CHADRON...MOVING NORTH AT 15 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  WHITNEY LAKE...
  WHITNEY...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY....AND A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS
AREA. BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS
LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS....FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 4290 10333 4280 10298 4246 10324 4251 10345
TIME...MOT...LOC 2151Z 202DEG 11KT 4256 10332

GRIFFITH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
401 PM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     HAIL             14 SSE CRAWFORD         42.50N 103.31W
05/18/2013  E0.75 INCH       DAWES              NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

GCLAYCOM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
404 PM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0403 PM     HAIL             CRAWFORD                42.69N 103.41W
05/18/2013  E0.75 INCH       DAWES              NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

GCLAYCOM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
409 PM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0408 PM     HAIL             14 SSE CRAWFORD         42.50N 103.31W
05/18/2013  E1.00 INCH       DAWES              NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL. HAIL HAS ENDED.

&&

GCLAYCOM

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