Severe Thunderstorm Warning 127, NWS Cheyenne, WY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
513 PM MDT SAT JUN 22 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 PM MDT SAT JUN 22 2013

THE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH AREAS EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST DURING THE COURSE OF THE
EVENING. 0-1KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES ARE RANGING FROM
50-100M^2/S^2 IN GOSHEN AND ALBANY COUNTIES. FURTHER EAST OF THIS
COUNTIES LCL'S ARE A BIT LOWER WITH VALUES RANGING FROM 500M-
1000M. THEREFORE...CONTINUED TORNADO THREAT LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY
MARGINAL THIS EVENING...BUT STILL CANNOT RULE SOME BRIEF
TOUCHDOWNS AS THE LINE CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST. MEANWHILE...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT STILL LOOKS
FAVORABLE AT THIS TIME. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE MAIN SHORTWAVE PIVOTING THROUGH CENTRAL WYOMING. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THIS EVENING AND BRING DRIER
AIR INTO THIS EVENING. WE WILL BE CLEARING THE TORNADO WATCH IN
CONVERSE AND ALBANY COUNTIES SHORTLY.

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY:
CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE
SUBSIDENCE BUILDS IN WITH THE PASSING SHORTWAVE. IT MAY BE QUITE
COOL IN A FEW LOCATIONS WITH 40S IN WYOMING AND 50S IN THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. LEE SIDE TROF DOES TRY TO SET UP CAMP...BUT
NOT REAL CONFIDENT THAT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP. FOR
NOW...WE WILL CONSISTENCY SAKE WE WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE PICTURE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 PM MDT SAT JUN 22 2013

NOT MANY CHANGES MADE TO THE LONG TERM DUE TO WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR A POTENTIAL
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WHICH MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OF
THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD OVER THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEK AND BRING WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

COX
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING) ISSUED
AT 530 PM MDT SAT JUN 22 2013

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WYOMING TAF SITES TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE A CHANCE OF ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NEAR THE CYS TAF SITE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEAST
WYOMING AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

COX
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 417 PM MDT SAT JUN 22 2013

LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE IN STORE FOR AREAS MAINLY WEST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...THE LEE SIDE TROF
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH GUSTY AND DRY
SOUTHWEST FLOW POSSIBLE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE ON MONDAY WHICH
WILL FAVOR INCREASE FIRE RISK.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...REC
LONG TERM...SLA
AVIATION...REC
FIRE WEATHER...REC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
432 AM MDT SAT JUN 22 2013

NEZ002-003-019>021-054-055-095-096-WYZ101>103-106>108-117>119-
231100-
DAWES-BOX BUTTE-SCOTTS BLUFF-BANNER-MORRILL-KIMBALL-CHEYENNE-
NORTH SIOUX-SOUTH SIOUX-CONVERSE COUNTY LOWER ELEVATIONS-
NIOBRARA COUNTY-NORTH LARAMIE RANGE-
CENTRAL LARAMIE RANGE AND SOUTHWEST PLATTE COUNTY-
EAST PLATTE COUNTY-GOSHEN COUNTY-SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE FOOTHILLS-
CENTRAL LARAMIE COUNTY-EAST LARAMIE COUNTY-
432 AM MDT SAT JUN 22 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE WESTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS WHILE MOVING
GENERALLY EASTWARD. SOME STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME SEVERE EAST OF
THE MOUNTAINS WITH LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD OCCUR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN. FEWER STORMS SHOULD
OCCUR MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGIC...AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHEYENNE

WYZ104-105-109>116-231100-
FERRIS/SEMINOE/SHIRLEY MOUNTAINS-SHIRLEY BASIN-
CENTRAL CARBON COUNTY-NORTH SNOWY RANGE FOOTHILLS-
SOUTHWEST CARBON COUNTY-SIERRA MADRE RANGE-
UPPER NORTH PLATTE RIVER BASIN-SNOWY RANGE-LARAMIE VALLEY-
SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE-
432 AM MDT SAT JUN 22 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL WYOMING AND
SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGIC...AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHEYENNE

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
618 PM MDT SAT JUN 22 2013

NEZ003-230100-
BOX BUTTE NE-
618 PM MDT SAT JUN 22 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL BOX BUTTE COUNTY UNTIL
700 PM MDT...

AT 614 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR KILPATRICK LAKE...OR 23 MILES WEST OF
ALLIANCE...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
RURAL CENTRAL BOX BUTTE COUNTY THROUGH 700 PM MDT

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY....AND A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL
800 PM MDT. BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV STATIONS...AS
WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS....FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND
POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

&&

LAT...LON 4233 10301 4201 10299 4202 10338 4220 10336
TIME...MOT...LOC 0018Z 255DEG 18KT 4211 10329

RUBIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
620 PM MDT SAT JUN 22 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0619 PM     HAIL             BUSHNELL                41.23N 103.89W
06/22/2013  E1.75 INCH       KIMBALL            NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            REPORTED AT BUSHNELL AND AT OLIVER LAKE.

&&

HAHN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
620 PM MDT SAT JUN 22 2013

NEZ020-021-230100-
BANNER NE-MORRILL NE-
620 PM MDT SAT JUN 22 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN MORRILL AND EXTREME
EASTERN BANNER COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM MDT...

AT 619 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR REDINGTON...OR 26 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
SCOTTSBLUFF...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
COURT HOUSE AND JAIL ROCKS AROUND 645 PM MDT.
BRIDGEPORT...BRIDGEPORT STATE RECREATION AREA AND NORTHPORT AROUND
650 PM MDT.
THE INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAY 385 AND 92 AROUND 700 PM MDT.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY....AND A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL
800 PM MDT. BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV STATIONS...AS
WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS....FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND
POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

&&

LAT...LON 4178 10298 4144 10294 4148 10338 4166 10339
TIME...MOT...LOC 0021Z 265DEG 22KT 4157 10333

RUBIN